Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Wednesday, February 20th

PHILADELPHIA, PA – February 03: Collin Gillespie #2 of the Villanova Wildcats reacts against the Georgetown Hoyas in the second half at the Wells Fargo Center on February 3, 2019, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Villanova defeated Georgetown 77-65. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) NCAA Basketball Picks /

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NBA and NCAA basketball picks, so this series is dedicated to finding the best underdog Moneyline value plays for the day.

We’re back in action today with another slate of Underdog NCAA basketball picks after a nice little win from Seton Hall (+200) over Creighton. While the past few installments have had quite a bit of success in the +200 to +300 range, tonight we’re going to do a bit more big game hunting and find some heftier value lines.

With a monster slate of 33 games on the day, there is no shortage of quality options to choose from as we look to keep our streak of consecutive days turning a profit rolling. Without further adieu, let’s dive into tonight’s action!

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks

VILLANOVA WILDCATS VS GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY HOYAS – 3:30 pm ET

Villanova and Georgetown lock horns for the second time on the season, with Villanova coming out on top in a home win the last go-round.

Villanova has turned on the heat after stumbling out of the gates to start the season. Since entering Big East play, the Wildcats rattled off 9 straight wins before dropping games to Marquette and St. Johns. Still, they sit at the top of the Big East with an 11-2 conference record and are back to playing efficient basketball on the offensive end. Although the Wildcat defense has been steadily consistent throughout the season, the offense has come and gone.

When at their best, the Villanova offense is hyper-efficient with 4 out of 5 starters shooting 37% from deep or better. This Wildcats offense is essentially a slightly watered down version of the offense they’ve run out in years past though, as they’ve lacked the season-long consistency that their predecessors had. All that said, Phil Booth and Eric Paschall make up one of the best inside-outside offensive duos in the NCAA. Paschall tends to be the key to the offense more often than not as his outside shooting allows the Wildcats to stretch the defense which in turn creates tons of open looks for his sharpshooting teammates. When Paschall has a rough night shooting though, the Wildcats are prone to the upset.

Meanwhile, Georgetown has quietly had a very respectable year in Big East play. Despite going just 5-7 in conference play so far, the Hoyas have hung close in just about every game and have been a few bad breaks away from sitting near the top of the heap in the Big East. Though they have struggled defensively from time to time, their offense poses a unique mismatch for most programs and allows them to score at an efficient enough clip to keep themselves competitive in any game.

Although the Hoyas boast one of the best arsenals of deep-ball specialists in the NCAA (arguably better than Nova), the biggest star for the Hoyas is undoubtedly Jessie Govan. A 6’10 Center with a possible NBA future ahead of him, Govan is a true stretch 5 with above average rim protection skills. He gives most opposing bigs fits due to the fact that he has an exceedingly well-rounded offensive game that allows him to score effectively at all 3 levels. Govan also will be the biggest player on the court against the Wildcats and will need to use his size to dominate the glass (something he has been inconsistent with on the year).

The key for me in this game will be how the Wildcats plan to handle Govan. Saddiq Bey and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree should likely draw the bulk of the minutes going up against Govan and will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them. If Govan goes cold, the Hoyas offense will likely stall out despite the fact that they are loaded with 3 point shooters. Villanova is simply too good at routinely contesting shots. If Govan shows up dialed in and controlling the boards, expect the Hoyas to match Villanova blow for blow in what should be a barnburner.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Georgetown Hoyas (TBA)

NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 10: Joseph Chartouny #12 of the Fordham Rams and Khwan Fore #2 of the Richmond Spiders dive for the ball during the second round of the Atlantic 10 Basketball Tournament at the Barclays Center on March 10, 2016, in New York, New York. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Wednesday, February 20th

FORDHAM RAMS VS RICHMOND SPIDERS – 4:30 pm ET

Fordham and Richmond make up our obligatory matchup of sub .500 teams going head to head on the day. Sitting at 2-10 and 4-8 respectively in conference play, neither team has had much success facing Atlantic-10 competition.

Despite their struggles on the year, Fordham got back in the win column with a solid road win over Rhode Island in their last outing. Despite their sub .500 record, Fordham still posts a positive point differential on the year (+2) and typically plays strong defense on a nightly basis. As a result, the Rams rarely get blown out and instead find themselves within striking distance late in just about every single game.

The Rams do struggle to close out games, mainly due to the lack of an efficient bucket-getter that they can turn to late. Nick Honor has had his moments as a freshman and is by far the most dynamic scorer on the roster, but still has some room to grow in terms of becoming a consistent threat. Fordham’s duo of undersized bigs, Jesse Bunting and Chuba Ohams, are likely going to be the keys to a Ram upset in this matchup. They have a tendency to be inconsistent (a theme for the Rams) on the boards, however, when they do show up and rebound at an effective clip, the Rams are a much better basketball team and win at a much higher rate.

Despite Richmond’s losing record and bottom-feeder status in the A-10, they’ve actually been playing some competent basketball the past few weeks and have some quality wins to their name. 3-2 over their last 5 games, the Spiders have quality wins over George Mason (sneakily my favorite team to bet on), St. Louis, and George Washington. However, the Spiders are a sub-par defensive squad and have even struggled defensively during their recent hot streak.

With a respectable inside-outside duo of Jacob Gilyard and Grant Golden, the Spiders pose a tough offensive matchup for most teams in the A-10. Gilyard is an undersized point with great court vision and 3 point shooting while Golden is a crafty scoring big who does a great job at sharing the ball in his own right. Although Gilyard does a fantastic job at creating pressure on the perimeter (forcing over 3 steals per game), his lack of size can often allow teams to bully him a bit on the defensive end. Regarding Golden, despite his size advantage on most nights, he is inconsistent on the boards and has a tendency to get outworked.

While Richmond has rattled off a few nice wins recently, the fact remains that they simply are not that good of a basketball team. While Fordham is just as bad on paper (if not worse), they typically tend to play better team basketball and simply fall short to more experienced and talented teams late. Although Fordham gets no favors in another road matchup, look for the undersized big duo of Bunting and Ohams to have a big night on the glass and allow the Rams to control the flow of the game. Especially if the Ram’s defense comes to play (and we all know defense travels), they should make life extremely tough on the Spiders in this matchup.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: Fordham Rams (TBA)

LAHAINA, HI – NOVEMBER 19: Jordan Schakel #20 and Jalen McDaniels #5 of the San Diego State Aztecs wrestle with Jack White #41 of the Duke Blue Devils for possession of the ball during the first half of the game at Lahaina Civic Center on November 19, 2018, in Lahaina, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images) /

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks of the Day: Wednesday, February 20th

NEVADA WOLF PACK VS SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS – 8:00 pm ET

Our late night matchup on the day features a juggernaut Nevada squad taking to the road to face down San Diego State.

Nevada comes into the matchup as unquestionably one of the best teams in college basketball. Powered by a hyper-athletic offensive attack to go alongside one of the staunchest defenses that the nation has to offer, the Wolf Pack are a deep, experienced, and extraordinarily well-rounded team. Despite technically being a mid-major program, the Wolf Pack are as talented as any team in the country and are without a doubt a dark horse pick to outright win the NCAA tournament come March.

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Led by the dynamic twin duo of Caleb Martin and Cody Martin, the Wolf Pack have one of the scariest and most well-rounded pair of stars in the NCAA. While Caleb shoulders a bit more of the scoring load, the Martin twins both have excellent size, length, athleticism, and basketball IQ. A pair of human swiss army knives, the Martin twins can score, rebound, pass, and defend all at elite levels. Their versatility makes the Wolf Pack a nightmare matchup as there isn’t any team outside of Texas Tech with the makeup to give them fits. Not to be overlooked, Jordan Caroline gives the Wolf Pack another reliable scoring threat who attacks the glass with ferocious intensity and helps round out a deadly offense.

While Nevada is clicking on all cylinders this season, San Diego State has consistently proven to be one of the best teams in the Mountain West. Without a losing season in nearly 15 years, the Aztecs are one of the most well-coached programs in all of college basketball. Despite losing longtime coach Steve Fischer two seasons back, the Aztecs haven’t missed a beat and have continued their winning ways under new coach Brian Dutcher.

Jalen McDaniels has had a breakout sophomore year and has improved his numbers across the board from his freshman season. McDaniels is a natural athlete stuck in a massive 6-10 frame who flies around the court making plays. Although he doesn’t boast the block numbers that we typically see in athletic bigs of his size, he creates a ton of steals and uses an above average basketball IQ to put himself in position to force uncomfortable shots for the defense. Moreover, he has extended his range to consistently knock down deep balls while showcasing elite court vision and passing out of the post.

Despite Nevada’s recent hot streak over the past four years, the fact remains that the Aztecs have absolutely owned the Wolf Pack during that stretch of time. Even with the Martin twins in full effect last season, the Aztecs swept the season series against the Wolf Pack and seem to have an effective gameplan for shutting down the Wolf Pack offense. Nevada is a great team, but they are due for a reality check heading into the final stretch and San Diego State provides the perfect matchup to do just that.

Underdog NCAA Basketball Picks: San Diego State Aztecs (TBA)

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