EPL DFS Breakdown – Friday 2/22/19

FRIDAY EPL!  I honestly cannot remember the last time there were two Premier League games on a Friday, but I’m not complaining.  Hopefully all of you soccer DFS fans had successful UCL lineups this week, if not, here’s your chance to get back on track using my EPL DFS Breakdown.  With only two games on this slate, I will continue this breakdown in a team-by-team fashion.

This slate is not going to be for the casual soccer follower with four teams that are not popular in the United States, a small handful of studs, and hardly any recognizable names.  On Friday, Cardiff City host Watford and we have a London derby between Fulham and West Ham United.

Vegas has West Ham as the largest favorite on the slate, but the spread is only -0.5.  The Watford @ Cardiff spread is 0.0.  However, Watford currently sit 8th which is nine spots ahead of Cardiff on the table, so some might consider them the “favorite” even on the road.  The total goal over/under for both games is 2.5, and there really is not an ideal game environment.

The injury news on the slate is minimal.  Watford forward Isaac Success is healthy, but it’s unlikely he’ll return as a starter.  Roberto Pereyra is also healthy for Watford, and he should regain his spot in the starting XI.  New WHU signing Samir Nasri is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is truly a question mark for Friday’s game.

Enough of that.  Let’s get to the plays!

EPL DFS Breakdown – Friday 2/22/19

Fulham

From a fantasy perspective, Fulham generally starts with Aleksandar Mitrovic ($12,000).  He’s putting together a decent season with 10 goals, but that likely won’t be enough to keep Fulham in the Premier League.  If you’ve read my breakdowns before, you know that this is not a good matchup for Mitrovic because he’s on the road.  He does have some appeal though, but only because of the lack of good forwards options on this slate.

Fulham’s midfield can largely be ignored on this slate.  Andre Schurrle ($7,500), Fulham’s most expensive midfielder, has only two goals since Halloween.  He does lead this midfield group in shots on goal, but I’d prefer to pay down to Jean Michael Seri ($7,000) and hope he can create enough chances and accrue other peripheral stats to hit value.

Calum Chambers ($6,500) has been playing well for Fulham on defense, and FanDuel has taken notice, raising his price to over $6k.  Chambers isn’t a bad defender to spend on, but anyone playing on Fulham carries some inherent risk.  You might be better off spending elsewhere and punting with a guy like Joe Bryan ($4,500).

Sergio Rico ($4,500) is the cheapest goalkeeper on the slate, but Fulham has given up the most goals so far this season, so stay away

EPL DFS Breakdown – Friday 2/22/19

West Ham United

Marko Arnautovic ($11,500) is the most well-known name on this slate, yet your casual soccer fans might not even recognize the name.  He had a great firs three months of the season, but after dealing with injuries, he’s only scored two goals since November 11th.  Despite that, Arnautovic is one of my favorite plays on the slate.  This is a tremendous matchup for him at home against a league-worst Fulham defense who are allowing 2.46 goals per game on the road.  On this small slate, there’s no reason you shouldn’t have the salary to get him if you want him.

Every single on of West Ham’s midfielders got a significant price bump, likely due to this great matchup.  Felipe Anderson ($10,000) does have two solid games in a row, but he’s way overpriced even in this matchup.  He does, however, have the best floor and ceiling of any West Ham midfielder so paying for him in a stack makes sense.  Michail Antonio ($8,500) is more affordable, but the upside is much less safe.  Declan Rice ($7,500) generally plays more defensive, but a matchup with Fulham could see Rice up the field a little more making him solid value exposure to West Ham’s attack.  If Samir Nasri ($7,000) can prove he’s healthy, he’ll for sure be on my radar on Friday.

No West Ham defender has done enough this season to stand out.  They’re all capable of 20 FDP games, and they’re all capable of single-digit busts at any time.  Picking one that fits your specific build might be smart though because a clean sheet bonus is a possibility.  Particularly, Ryan Fredericks ($4,000) is worth a look for minimum price is he starts over Zabaleta.

Lukasz Fabianski ($5,500) will likely be the chalk at GK on Friday.  Fulham have only scored eight goals in 13 away games this year.  Both win and clean sheet bonuses are definite possibilities.  There is some risk associated here however as West Ham is not that strong of a defensive team.  If they concede, it will be unlikely that Fabianski makes up for it with save points.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Friday 2/22/19

Watford

Watford are the best team on this slate as they sit in 8th, only two points out of a possible European spot next season.  However, Watford are not always the best team from a fantasy perspective.  It’s been extremely difficult to figure out Gerard Deulofeu ($9,000) and Troy Deeney ($8,000) as goal scorers this season.  Deulofeu scored twice right before Christmas and hasn’t scored since while struggling to pick up peripheral stats.  Deeney has scored in 2019 (twice), but his activity and aggression allow him to pick up more peripheral stats.  Cardiff City is giving up about 1.8 goals per game this year, and that only lowers to 1.77 at home.  Watford is likely going to score in this game, but picking the right scorer is never easy with them.  I’d consider Deeney in my FWD2 spot with hopes of a decent peripheral stats.  A goal would be frosting on top.

Watford’s midfield has some potential on Friday.  Abdoulaye Doucoure ($8,500) seems a bit overpriced on this slate.  He is a do-everything kind of guy who fills the stat sheet, but he hasn’t been the same goal scorer he was last year.  I’d prefer to save $1,000 and play Roberto Pereyra ($7,500) assuming he starts.  Pereyra leads Watford in goals, and he’s going to be one of the better bets to score in this game.  Etienne Capoue ($7,500) is a decent play as well.  He’s been fairly consistently getting 2x value, averaging 14.8 FDP over his last 14 games.  In a plus matchup against Cardiff, maybe he can get closer to his ceiling.

Craig Cathcart ($7,000) is not one of the defenders I would be paying up for on this slate.  Three of his five games in 2019 have been 30+ FDP games, but before the turn of the calendar he his 20+ FDP only once.  Jose Holebas ($6,500) is the more consistent high-end defender for Watford.  Over his last five games, he’s averaging 17.5 FDP which is below his season average.  However, in this matchup he can get you 3x.  It might be more wise to save $1,000 and go for Adrian Mariappa ($5,500) who is averaging 17 FDP over his last five games.  Daryl Janmaat ($5,000) could be reinserted into the starting lineup with Kiko Femenia out.  About 30% of Janmaat’s games this season have been 20+ FDP games which is at least 4x value at his current price.  In a more attacking defensive position in a good matchup, Janmaat is good value.

Ben Foster ($5,000) will be another popular goalkeeper on this slate.  Cardiff are scoring on average 1.15 goals per game at home which is not that great.  Foster has been a save-monster at times recently with games of 9, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4 saves.  He has kept a clean sheet in half of those as well.  This could be another big game for Foster.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Friday 2/22/19

Cardiff City

Cardiff City might be the most boring team from a fantasy perspective.  Callum Paterson ($9,500) is priced up for some reason.  He’s not worth that price tag by any means.  Bobby Reid ($8,500) is also more expensive than normal.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Neither forward are suggested especially if you’re going to play Watford defenders and Foster in hopes of a clean sheet.  Watford only allow a very respectable 1.23 goals per game away from home.

If he plays, Victor Camarasa ($7,500) is probably your best bet if you’re taking a shot at a Cardiff attacker as a filler.  Everyone else is averaging single-digit fantasy points per game.

Sol Bamba ($7,500) is officially out of his fantasy slump.  He has two consecutive games over 30 FDP.  He’s an absolute tank on defense especially with peripheral stats.  From a pure raw point perspective, Bamba is probably your best bet out of all defenders on the slate.

Normally, I prioritize finding good value on defense, but Bamba is someone I will consider on this small slate just for his raw points.  Bruno Ecuele Manga ($5,000) has been playing well with an average of 15.48 FDP in his last five games.  That’s good enough for 3x value.  Sean Morrison’s return might dampen that slightly though, so that’s something to monitor.

Cardiff gives up too many goals to make Neil Etheridge ($5,000) viable as a GK on this slate.  However, if you want to fade Watford on the road and think Cardiff will play well at home, you could use Etheridge in GPPs if it doesn’t interrupt the rest of your build.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown and good luck!  I’ll be back with more content in this stretch of 5 EPL slates in 6 days.