FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 2/21 – Welcome Back NBA!
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday 2/21
Welcome back, NBA DFS players, to the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I hope you had a relaxing All-Star break! I indulged in some DFS Hockey (and actually won a good bit) but I know that many of you are as ready to get back to playing NBA DFS as I am!
I’m ready, as always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel. We have a nice little six-game slate ready to welcome us back from the break that locks at 7:00. Just enough games to feel about making cash lineup and not too many games to have to worry about for GPPs, we are living in the DFS sweet spot tonight!
I have to throw a quick shout out to my oldest daughter Charlotte who is turning six years old today – Happy Birthday Charlotte! It’s a shame that the Hornets aren’t playing tonight or I’d have to stack them up in tribute to my baby girl.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.
When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information.
At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.
Let’s get things started with our first look at the injury report and Vegas data!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look
Injury Report
OUT: Joel Embiid, Aaron Baynes, Spencer Dinwiddie, Iman Shumpert, TJ Warren, Furkan Kokrmaz
DOUBTFUL: Tristan Thompson
QUESTIONABLE: Damian Lillard, Goran Dragic, Gordon Hayward
PROBABLE: Nikola Mirotic, Josh Hart, Austin Rivers, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela
The BIG news here (literally) is that Joel Embiid will miss a week with a sore knee (even after already having a week off). The only superstar in question is Damian Lillard who’s got a Q tag and Portland would become really interesting tonight if Dame would sit.
Meanwhile, we should see the return of Clint Capela to the Rockets lineup but for how many minutes? Nikola Mirotic should make his debut for the Bucks, and Goran Dragic could return to action for the Heat (but likely on a minutes limit).
We still have to figure out how many minutes Kevin Love will play tonight (I’m not betting on more than 18-20) and I’m personally wondering (and hoping) if Boogie Cousins will see his minutes increased.
Vegas Info
The highest total is in the Warriors-Kings game at 239, but the Warriors are also the heaviest favorite on the slate at -12.
The closest projected contest is the Phoenix-Cleveland game as it is only a one-point spread. Not far behind is the Lakers-Rockets are only a two-point spread (and a healthy 233 total)
The Warriors and Rockets have the highest implied team totals and are getting the biggest bumps in pace. The Celtics have the third highest pace increase but are projected for fewer points than their season average so be warned – the Bucks defense is good.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
James Harden (12600)
If you didn’t get a chance to read it, I broke down the first half of the NBA season statistics here. And it was no surprise that James Harden led the NBA in both minutes and usage in the first half. He had one of the more impressive stretches of any fantasy player in any sport and at one point was priced all the way up to 14000 dollars on FanDuel.
Harden’s Rockets have the second highest implied team total on the night (second only to the Warriors) and are being paced up by the Lakers in a game with only a two-point spread. I think Harden will easily be the highest scorer on the night and with his price, back down to a reasonable cost there’s no reason not to lock him into your cash game rosters tonight.
Ben Simmons (8700)
Simmons price has hit an all-time low as it looks like his production is going to suffer a bit with the new look Sixers being more balanced after the addition of Tobias Harris.
However, since pricing for this slate came out almost a week ago, the fact that Joel Embiid is out tonight is not figured into any of the Sixers prices and I think we can aggressively attack them in all formats tonight even in a mediocre matchup with the Heat.
We have literally no sample size with Simmons-Harris-Redick-Butler on the court, but I’m willing to bet that Big Ben will push for a triple-double tonight and get us at least 5x on this price tag. His rebounding and assists give him a really great floor even if he can’t shoot to save his life!
Joe Harris (5500)
Joe was red-hot heading into the break, scoring 24 and 25 actual points in his final two games before the week off and racking up 31 FD points in each. Then he stayed hot, winning the 3-point contest last Saturday night.
Tonight he faces the Portland Trailblazers who rank 20th against small forwards this season and I have no problem plugging him into my cash lineup and feeling good about getting 25-30 FD points out of him tonight.
Also consider: Collin Sexton (5500)
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Devin Booker (8200)
Booker gets a great individual matchup against a Cavs team that has the worst team defensive rating and has been bleeding points to point guards and shooting guards (so however you classify Booker, he’s good to go!).
As I noted in my first half stat review, Booker was a top 5 player in usage rate (30%) when he has been healthy and I think he has a great chance at piling up some points tonight against the woeful Cavs.
DeMarcus Cousins (7600)
It’s Boogie Revenge night! Cousins travels back to Sacramento where he played the first six and a half seasons of his career. More importantly, than revenge is the fact that the Warriors have a gaudy team total and Cousins has the best matchup of any Warriors player as the Kings have been handled by centers all year-long.
He’s been an elite 1.4 FPPM scorer this season and so while he’s been capped at 28 minutes so far, he still has the potential for a 40+ FD point outing if he’s as dominant in those minutes as I think he can be.
Tobias Harris (7100)
Harris has been really good since coming over to the Sixers and really has solidified their weakest position at power forward. He will have a chance tonight to get a lot of more shots than usual with Embiid out of the lineup and the matchup is solid as Miami ranks 24th against power forwards this year. Harris has been good against the Heat this year, too.
As a member of the Clippers, he averaged 25.5-6.5-3.5 against Miami in two games this season.
Also Consider: Steph Curry (I had him pictured and realized I didn’t write him up!)
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Boban Marjanovic (3800)
With Embiid out, we should expect to see Boban start or at least get 15-20 minutes at center tonight. That’s all the more minutes he needs in order to make value so fire him up as one of the top values on the board. The last you want to do is fade him and then watch him drop a 40 burger if he gets 25 or more minutes.
Cedi Osman (4800)
Cedi returned from injury right before the break and scored 23 FD points in 24 minutes. He also played in the USA-World game over the break so he appears to be healthy. The Cavs desperately need some scoring and rebounding so I really like Osman here as he was consistently playing 35+ minutes before he got hurt.
Reggie Bullock (4700)
Bullock looked much better in his second game as a Laker, scoring 30 FD points in 35 minutes. As long as he’s going to get that much run and play alongside a great passer like LeBron James, I’m definitely interested in him as he’s an excellent three-point shooter and has already shown his defensive skills, too, with 6 blocks/steals as a member of the Lakers.
Allen Crabbe (4100)
Crabbe entered the starting lineup right before the break against the Cavs and has seen his minutes steadily increase from 13 to 21 to 31 to 33 in the four games since he returned from a lengthy injury. He’s a pretty one-dimensional fantasy player, but he’s certainly capable of getting us 20+ FD points tonight if he is going to be given that many minutes.
Marquese Chriss (4700)
This is a risky play based on the fact that Kevin Love is going to play tonight, however, I am counting on him not playing more than 20 minutes, leaving plenty of minutes for the youngster Chriss who gets to square off against the team that drafted him. Chriss was very impressive in his last game, posting 23 points and 7 rebounds in 27 minutes against the Nets and has solid per-minute upside.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.
Point Guard
- Ben Simmons
- Steph Curry
- Collin Sexton
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Houston Rockets (-2) @ L.A. Lakers (233 Total)
It’s tempting to attack that Cavs-Suns game with two bad defenses and only a one-point spread, but there’s a lot of uncertainty with some of the minutes and how they’ll be distributed in those rotations and the Cavs play at a really slow pace. I’d rather attack this game with a game-stack since it has a considerably higher total, faster pace and a tight two-point spread of its own.
James Harden and LeBron James (11700) are the two pieces that you must have in this stack and you’re hoping that they combine for around 120 FD points.
The tricky part is that you’re left with only 5100 per player for your seven remaining spots. The good news is Reggie Bullock is cheap as is P.J. Tucker (4500), who we would have to assume plays big minutes and guards James on defense.
Brandon Ingram (6200) and Kyle Kuzma (6600) are pretty affordably priced in the mid-range and both are capable of 35+ FD points. I’d add or both of them to the Lakers side of this stack.
I’m avoiding Clint Capela (8600) as he’s still priced way up and we have no way to know if he’s going to get his full share of minutes back right away, however, Chris Paul (7800) is certainly in play and was playing well going into the break. Most players won’t pair Paul and Harden in the same lineup but I think you can do it tonight.
You can fit 4-5 pieces here comfortably and have a chance to get a major chunk of the fantasy production from a game that should be high scoring and hopefully close – as long as LeBron as the Lakers can hang with the Rockets!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll the cash core plays in there along with my favorite value plays and some other mid-tier guys who I think have solid floors tonight.
I’m happy to play chalk Boban at center and spend up elsewhere and absolutely locking in Harden.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks.
PG: Ben Simmons (8700)
PG: Collin Sexton (5500)
SG: James Harden (12600)
SG: Allen Crabbe (4100)
SF: Joe Harris (5500)
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr. (6900)
PF: Tobias Harris (7100)
PF: Marvin Bagley Jr. (5700)
C: Boban Marjanovic (3800)
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I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.
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