Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Thursday February 21
Welcome into the Thursday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We’re finally back in action after the All-Star Game with six games tonight, so let’s dig in!
It’s been a really long week but the NBA is back tonight and they picked some pretty attractive fantasy games to welcome us back into the swing of things. It’s kind of nice to not have to deal with a double digit slate right off the bat so we can get our feet wet nicely after a week of no real DFS fun. Let’s get right to work for the slate tonight with our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Ben Simmons, Sixers
It’s going to be fairly difficult to get away from Simmons tonight since Joel Embiid is out for at least a week. We’ve seen before that Simmons is pretty much who you want when Embiid if out for a game and we’ve been willing to pay at least $9,000 on DraftKings for him on certain nights.
That’s not going to be a fear tonight because he went into the All-Star break in a bit of a slump, which has lowered his price on both sites. He’s actually under $8,000 on DK for the slate tonight in part because it was released so early.
On the season, Simmons doesn’t see a massive usage spike since he’s still under 26 percent with Embiid off the floor. The leader in usage is actually Jimmy Butler but the FPPM is equal at 1.33.
There is a slight concern with how things shake out since Tobias Harris is on the squad now and only has a 46 minute sample size with no Embiid. Still, in that sample Harris hasn’t been a huge FPPM producer at 0.81. Simmons is just too cheap for his role tonight.
Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Warriors on the expensive side and Collin Sexton on the cheap side
Fade – Chris Paul, Rockets
There’s a couple of reason that I’m not all that interested in Paul tonight, despite Lonzo Ball remaining out of the lineup tonight. The first and most important reason is I don’t believe he has the best chance at hitting 6x on either site, since he’s $7,600 on DK.
For a true 6x, he has to score at least 45 DK points and I’m thinking that might be more towards the ceiling tonight(more on that in a minute). There’s also the return of Clint Capela, which negatively correlates with Paul.
With Capela, Paul is at 1.16 FPPM and without him he’s at 1.31. That’s not insignificant.
The other reason is much tougher to quantify, but I have fears about Paul making it through this game. The last time we saw these teams hook up, Rajon Rondo and Paul about had a cage fight under the hoop after an alleged spitting incident.
I’m not convinced that’s something that gets taken lightly by either party and the bad blood could spill over into the game. I’m not having my first NBA night in a week ruined for that kind of reason.
Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Celtics since Kyrie Irving is expected to play
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – James Harden, Rockets
We’re back from the break and that means we’re back to asking the question that gets asked basically every slate this man is on – are we paying for James Harden tonight or not? For me, I plan on it tonight.
First, he’s not priced any differently than a super stud like Giannis Antetokounmpo or the ghost of Anthony Davis on DK. Yes, $11,600 is still expensive but it’s certainly not prohibitive anymore.
Secondly, he gets one of the better matchups on paper since the Lakers are the second worst team against shooting guards and give up the second most real points to the position as well. That’s a bad mix to be squaring off against Harden.
The Lakers are playing at the fourth fastest pace in the league and that’s a gift to a player like Harden. He doesn’t need more opportunities on any given night, and he is still right around a 1.60 FPPM mark with Capela in the lineup.
Yes, it is a little bit of a bump down since Capela is going to share a little bit of the load with Harden and Paul but Harden can still pretty easily hit 6x at his current price tag. Harden remains one of the safest bets in the game for at least 55-60 every single night with a ceiling in this spot.
Honorable Mention – If Damian Lillard is out, CJ McCollum needs to be in your lineup. Regardless of his status, Caris LeVert is one of the top plays on the board
Fade – Khris Middleton, Bucks
If you’re playing cash, I really can’t argue too much against using Middleton. He is pretty consistent and you know the floor is roughly 30 fantasy points night in, night out. In the two games that the Bucks have played the Celtics this year, Middleton has hit his season averages almost right on the nose.
While that’s great, I don’t think he’s going to provide you with any type of ceiling tonight and I’m not going to be using him a whole lot personally.
Boston allows the third lowest field goal percentage on three-point shots this season, and that is a bit of a knock on Middleton. It’s not the only thing he does, but if I’m going to use him I want to pick my spot against a team that is vulnerable to the three ball.
Additionally, this past week was the first time he’s participated in the All-Star game. While he did get a few days off, it’s still a new and different experience for him and there could be some fatigue. It’s just another notch in the belt of not believing in the ceiling tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jordan Clarkson, Cavaliers on FanDuel(he’s still solid on DK)
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Joe Harris, Nets
On DK, I would be inclined to take advantage of the flexibility Simmons offers and potentially fit another guard in that I really liked but on FD, that’s not going to happen. One of my favorite cheaper plays might well be Joe Harris, the reigning and defending three-point champion of the world and the one who stayed both Curry brothers in Charlotte(yes, I’m a Paul Heyman Guy).
Harris not only is one of the premier sharpshooters in basketball, but he’s found himself playing stable minutes in the Nets rotation. That’s not something that many of their players can boast and the price is far too cheap.
Not only does he have all those factors going for him, but Harris draws the team that is giving up the highest field goal percentage from three-point land in the league and he’s still exceedingly cheap.
Especially on DK where you get a bonus for three pointers made, Harris is a great way to save salary to pay up for other players tonight.
Honorable Mention – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks has hammered the Celtics this season
Fade – Kelly Oubre, Suns
The Suns at Cavaliers game could be one of the worst real games on the slate but it could also be a treasure trove for fantasy production. Having said that, I think the price tag is a little high for Oubre, especially on FD.
There have been some games where the minutes have dipped, which obviously kills the value Oubre has. He’s not always a consistent enough player that can survive on limited minutes, so the floor is real.
On DK, he’s approaching $6,000 and there’s so many other good plays in that range that I can’t see myself settling into playing Oubre. We’re going to get to him shortly, but DeMarcus Cousins is only $300 more.
Granted it’s a different position but you can bet I’m finding that extra money and figuring out how to play Boogie tonight. I’m not worried about fading Oubre with a rested Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton in this one.
Honorable Mention – Nikola Mirotic, Bucks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Marcus Morris, Celtics
For the life of me, I have no reasonable answer why Marcus Morris is under $5,000 on DK tonight but I’m perfectly happy to take advantage of it. Morris has been one of the better Celtics all season long and he shouldn’t be this cheap, as power forwards can be a very nice play against the Bucks.
Since the centers are typically drawn away from the basket with Brook Lopez, power forwards can be a sneaky source of rebounds. Al Horford isn’t the biggest rebounding center on a good day as it is, so that facet is amplified here.
The other facet that really intrigues me is three-point potential with Morris. The Bucks lead the NBA in a lot of defensive numbers, but they also give up the highest percentage of points against from three’s and face the most attempts on a per game basis.
Morris is shooting a little over five three’s a game and is flirting with 41 percent from that range. He’s a great salary saver on both sites for what his role should be tonight.
Honorable Mention – Draymond Green, Warriors
Fade – Kenneth Faried, Rockets
If it wasn’t for Caplea being back in the lineup, Faried would potentially be one of the better plays on the board tonight against a weak Lakers interior. That is not the case and we have yet to see how Capela and Faried co-exist. I don’t plan on paying the price for Faried to find out, because I don’t think the relative newbie Rocket gets the better end of the bargain tonight.
I think that putting Faried at the four might hamper the offense a little too much, although I suppose the Rockets could experiment with it. Even if they try it, Capela is likely to gobble up a lot of the points and rebounds that were going to Faried these past few weeks.
As we’ve seen, he didn’t have the highest ceiling without Capela in the lineup so now the floor is likely a lot lower as well. The worst case scenario is fully in play here as well and Faried might be a 15-18 minute player a night, backing up Capela. Make sure you see for yourself how the Rockets treat him before you roster him again.
Honorable Mention – Larry Nance, Jr., Cavaliers
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – DeMarcus Cousins, Warriors
This play is going to be chalky, at least on DK and I don’t care one bit. I’m going to eat all that yummy delicious chalk tonight because Cousins is going to destroy his former team, the Kings. The game will likely have a total of 240 by tip-off, so you better get a piece of it.
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One of the more popular tandems on DK will likely be Cousins and the majestic Boban, which makes plenty of sense. I might throw in Capela instead of Boban if we know he’s getting full minutes but back to Cousins.
I usually have little use for revenge narratives but tonight is an exception. Boogie has destroyed the Kings and will see his minutes increase tonight.
In three games, Cousins is averaging a line of 38.7/15.7/4.7 and that has equated to almost 72 DK points per game.
Now, it has to be noted that he averaged close to 40 minutes in those three games. That won’t happen tonight but at $6,100 on DK, you don’t need it. There’s legitimate 50 DK point upside here and I’m not missing it unless something dramatically changes during the day.
Honorable Mention – Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers is safer than Capela against the Nets
Fade – Anyone who’s not the six most expensive options or Boban on FD
So that’s obviously a little broad and on DK, the flexibility does open up some other choices but on FD it’s more cut and dry. If you want to punt, you play Boban and risk not playing Cousins against his team.
This slate is weird as there’s really only seven centers that I’m considering, and even then it’s pretty narrow. I want some mix of Capela, Cousins and Boban throughout almost every lineup. Players like Jarrett Allen, Willie Cauley-Stein, Javale McGee and Brook Lopez don’t have a place on this slate in my eyes.
Next. DraftKings NBA Picks February 21. dark
I’m not interested in getting too cute tonight. Embiid already is out, meaning we have no superstar center. There’s good options, but you don’t have a Big Honey or or Karl Anthony-Towns to fall back on.
Play one of the players we’ve talked about with the preference to the trio. In my view, much of anything else is too dangerous and different just for the sake of being different.