DraftKings NBA Picks February 22: Bank on King George
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks February 22: Bank on King George
We are getting back into the real swing of things here with nine games for our Friday DraftKings NBA tournaments. However, there are still only four players priced in five figures. That makes for a deep middle tier. Who is worth the money?
Did you guys check out some NHL and PGA over the break? I did, and thanks to our advice right here at Fantasy CPR, I was able to add a little bit to my bankroll for the stretch run of the NBA season. Just because the NBA is back up and running doesn’t mean we need to ignore the friends we made over the break, right?
Last night was about as disastrous as a NBA night could be. I built ten lineups and only one broke 275, but just barely. Harden fouling out for the first time this season didn’t help, but no shares of Giannis or Horford sealed my fate. The money line was all the way up to 299 thanks to some big scores in the late games.
jsmanoc took this one down with 376 DraftKings points. He built with Curry, CP3, and Durant and got massive value from Horford, Boban, and Bogdan. Big scores from Brandon Ingram and Eric Gordon didn’t hurt either.
I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.
Tonight is a night to build a few lineups, but only in the $1 20 max.
Today marks the 25th anniversary of one of the better sounding (but not best) concerts by one of my favorite bands. The reason why this one holds a special spot is because this is the one that got me hooked on live music. This is what I’m listening to as I write this. Here’s something for you as you read.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
For those of you thinking about using Russell Westbrook against Utah, I wouldn’t. Westbrook only has 84.75 DraftKings points in two games against Utah this season. Westbrook is still only half an assist shy of averaging a triple double against the Jazz, so that streak may stay intact. He’s just not going hit value.
Kemba Walker is a much safer play, and he would be even if he didn’t put up 64.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Wizards. This is just an all around great matchup for Walker. Luka Doncic has also put up three straight games of at least 5x value, and hung 53 DraftKings points on the Nuggets in his first game against them.
Honorable Mention:
Trae Young has struggled against the Pistons this year, but those games were before he hit the stride he has in the last month or so. Young is a strong play if you are staying out of the top tier for one reason or another.
Mike Conley has put up good numbers against the Clippers this year, but it seems as though the Grizzlies are going to do the same thing to him as the Pelicans are doing to A.D. and Holiday. Conley hasn’t played more than 32 minutes since the deadline, and probably wont the rest of the way. I’m not sure when can trust him to hit value in that scenario.
Kyle Lowry is a much more intriguing play against the Spurs. He sat out the first meeting and Kawhi was a disaster in his return to San Antonio. Lowry should help keep Toronto in this game. Lowry almost looks cheap at this price.
Dennis Smith put up 31.25 DraftKings points against Minnesota in the first meeting, but we need more than that for him to hit value at this price. The impending return of Emmanuel Mudiay could make this situation even more unclear. I think I would rather run this back with a healthy Jeff Teague for $5,900.
Jamal Murray is $700 cheaper and is taking on a team that he torched for 56.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Murray wont do that again with most of Denver’s guards healthy, but I could see him coming in right around 6x value.
Dark Horses:
Tomas Satoransky went for 35.5 DraftKings points in his start against Charlotte earlier this year. I am strongly considering playing Satoransky with Kemba to capitalize on the poor guard defense from both sides of this game much like I did with Cleveland and Phoenix last night.
This should be a big spot for Darren Collison here. Collison put up 39.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans. He has been playing far too well in Oladipo’s absence to be this cheap.
For those of us looking to go really cheap, there are actually some solid options out there. D.J. Augustin has a good matchup against the Bulls, but his output is still very unpredictable. The same goes for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, though he does have 50.5 DraftKings points in two games against Memphis this year. The one I am most interested in is Delon Wright. Conley’s minutes are down, and Wright has done a lot with the minutes Memphis gives him. Wright is one of my favorite value picks of the night at any position.
My pick: SGA(PG), Wright(G); Doncic(PF)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
There is no lock down top option like there was with Harden last night. Bradley Beal put up 42.5 DraftKings points on Charlotte the first time around. That’s good enough to put him in consideration, but it also isn’t enough to put him at 5x value.
Donovan Mitchell struggled in both games against the Thunder, and he has cooled off some since his hot streak when Utah lost all their guards. I could see taking a crack with Mitchell here, but with the way Ferguson is playing, I wouldn’t expect a huge night. Jrue Holiday looks better against the Pacers, a team he put up 50.5 DraftKings points on. The only issue here is that Danny Ferry said Davis and Holiday would both “play less” down the stretch, whatever that means.
Honorable Mention:
I’m not sold on Zach LaVine against Toronto, but I’m going to have plenty of shares of DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan put up 62 DraftKings points on Toronto earlier this year. I expect another strong showing in his former home arena.
SG thins out a lot after DeRozan because I have serious issues paying that much for LouWill. Jeremy Lamb is worth a shot against a poor Washington defense though. Evan Fournier is also a very strong option against the Bulls, though he does have limited upside.
Surprisingly, Terrence Ross has struggled against the Bulls this year. He has just 45 DraftKings points in three games against the Bulls. Can he break that trend tonight? We know the upside on Ross. This should be a huge spot, but I just don’t know if I can trust it.
Dark Horses:
Wesley Matthews has looked solid with the Pacers, but his shot still isn’t falling. When it does, look out! The volume should be there against the Pelicans, so if Matthews takes his ten shots and hits half of them, he’ll hit value with ease. Matthews is worth a shot in a spot or two if you play multiple lineups.
Kadeem Allen continues to play well in the Knicks backcourt, but if Mudiay plays I’m less confident in his minutes. The Knicks could go full Nets from last night and play everyone 24 minutes. There are better options like E’Twaun Moore, who has 50.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. Avery Bradley against his former team is tempting as well.
My pick: Moore(SG); N/A
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Remember how Russ has struggled against the Jazz? Paul George has destroyed them for 132.75 DraftKings points in just 70 minutes this year. Lock in George. He will be in every lineup I use tonight.
Kawhi was a complete bust against his former team in San Antonio, but I expect better things north of the border. There is no way I would play him as a substitute to George though. If you aren’t using both, leave Kawhi out.
Honorable Mention:
Danilo Gallinari has 68 DraftKings points in two games against Memphis so far, which is exactly 5x value. Gallinari hasn’t really gone off without Harris there, so don’t expect a ceiling game here. Actually, Gallo is probably more of a cash game option since Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Isaac are both cheaper and both have very high ceilings. You would be playing Gallinari for the solid floor, which the other two don’t have.
Otto Porter has done well with the Bulls so far, so I could see playing him here. However, he struggled in two games against Orlando as a member of the Wizards. Still, for the price I would much rather use Trevor Ariza and/or Jabari Parker against Charlotte’s front.
Bojan Bogdanovic continues to carry a lot of the scoring void left by Oladipo. This is a smash spot against the Pelicans, and much like the other Bogdanovic last night, Bojan is way too cheap in this situation. You can also run this back with Kenrich Williams on the other side, who put up 32 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Pacers.
Dark Horses:
The talent is there for Kevin Knox, but the minutes aren’t always. It’s the inverse for Joe Ingles. Ingles played well against the Thunder earlier this year, but has only hit value twice in the last five games. I think I would rather go with Marvin Williams, who put up a strong 35.25 DraftKings points on the Wizards the first time around.
Nicolas Batum remains a cash game staple because of his high floor and low ceiling. He’s not a great GPP option, but if you are looking for a lineup filler at this price, Batum is a relatively low risk play. However, in a GPP, I think I would roll with Luol Deng. Yes, that Loul Deng, who has turned back the clock ten years with Robert Covington out. Landry Shamet is a good option as well if you can’t find it in yourself to jump on the Dung bandwagon.
Dorian Finney-Smith and Davis Bertans aren’t getting the minutes that Deng and Shamet are, but they are still putting up numbers well beyond the price tag. They just don’t have much for upside. However, they are always a threat for 6x value at a very low price.
My pick: George(SF), Shamet(F); George(SF), Isaac(F), Shamet(G), Bogdanovic(SG), Ariza(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin looks cheap against the Hawks, until you actually look at the game log. Yeah, Griffin has been neutered by the 32 minutes in both games, but he only has 63 DraftKings points in those 64 minutes anyway. I would rather play Anthony Davis against the Pacers for 25 minutes than roll Griffin out there.
Okay, with that out of the way, I’m here to tell you that there’s no reason to bank on either Griffin or Brow. Lauri Markkanen has at least 40 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games. This is a tougher matchup against Orlando, but at least Markkanen should get a full compliment of minutes.
Honorable Mention:
I view John Collins in the same way as I view Griffin. He’s a great matchup in a game that will most likely be a blowout. Collins’ skill is never in question, but the Hawks are in no hurry to wear him out. They can develop him in 28 minutes a game, and they seem committed to that, at least in blowouts.
If LaMarcus Aldridge ends up sitting this one out, I consider Rudy Gay a solid replacement, even against that Toronto front. Still, the overlooked one in this mix is Julius Randle. Randle terrorized the Thunder last game, playing 39 minutes. Davis probably wont play more than 25, so there is a great chance that Randle has the run of the frontcourt for at least half the game, and he is just $7,400.
Pascal Siakam has thrown together two 60+ DraftKings points outings in the last four games. He’s not going to do that against the Spurs. The question is what exactly will he do? If he’s facing Gay instead of Aldridge, this could be a good outing for Siakam, though it’s becoming harder to hit value with his price this high.
Aaron Gordon is always a risk, but he has put up 105 DraftKings points in three games against the Bulls. That would put Gordon around 5.5x value if he can do it again. This is one of the few times that I will consider Gordon, but he is always a risk.
Dark Horses:
Domantas Sabonis is finally down to the point where he can provide good value again. Sabonis put up 35.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans. He has also hit value in five of the last seven games. Many have forgot about Sabonis here. This is a good time to use him.
Jeff Green mauled Charlotte in the first meeting for 42.25 DraftKings points. The issue with Green is that Parker, Portis, and Ariza all seem to be in front of him in the pecking order. Green is more of a risk than the others, but against a smaller front like Charlotte, we should see Green get more run accordingly.
Dario Saric is too cheap against a Knicks team that has struggled against power forwards. I love him at the price, so I see no reason to take a chance on Green. I prefer Millsap over Green too. The sleeper pick is Luke Kornet if he draws another start for the Knicks.
Give me all of the JaMychal Green revenge against Memphis. ALL OF IT!
My pick: Green(PF); Green(PF)
DraftKings NBA Centers:
Best Bets:
The Knicks aren’t as weak against centers as you may think. Some of that is due to Kanter when they let him play, but most of it is due to guys that are still there. However, KAT has averaged only 45 DraftKings points per game in 12 meetings against DeAndre Jordan in his career. We need more than that from Towns, but may not quite get there tonight.
Nikola Jokic has a tough matchup against Dallas on paper, but Jokic mauled them for 66 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and that was with Jordan in the picture. Jokic is going to be tough to fade tonight, and my core is going to be building around George and Jokic. I can also get with dropping down to Nikola Vucevic, who has 110.25 DraftKings points in three games against the Bulls this year.
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Honorable Mention:
There aren’t may places where Andre Drummond would be considered a second tier guy, but with center as loaded as it is tonight, that’s where we are. Drummond has 97.5 DraftKings points in just 61 minutes against Atlanta this year. If I play a Piston, it’s going to be Drummond.
I don’t know that I can trust Rudy Gobert to hit value here. He didn’t in either of the first two games against the Thunder. When it comes down to it, I would rather find a way to afford a stud or drop down to the value tier where some interesting options are. Take Montrezl Harrell for instance. He has at least 31 DraftKings points in every game he has started. With Gasol out of Memphis, he could dominate.
Dark Horses:
I really love the price on Myles Turner here. He is questionable with a bruised hip, but if Turner plays, I will have at least some exposure to him. I also like Bobby Portis, but he is mostly in a timeshare with Bryant. I would rather use Ariza or Parker at a lower price.
This is a great matchup for Steven Adams, but I want no part of his February struggles. I also don’t want to mess with the poor matchups for Ibaka or Jordan. I would much rather drop down to Cody Zeller, who has at least 5x value in every game since his return.
Ivica Zubac is cheap, but he is also super risky. This should be a case where Zubac gets good run against a smaller Memphis front. If we get some confirmation that he is starting, I love Zubac as a value play.
Jerami Grant is back, so that takes away most of the value from Nerlens Noel. However, if Adams continues to struggle or if Grant is limited, Noel could still get enough minutes to be effective.
My pick: Jokic(C), Vucevic(UTIL); Zeller(C)
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