Draftkings NBA Value Plays – February 22 – Fear The Beal!
By Shaun Evans
Draftkings NBA Value Plays – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the top Draftkings NBA Value Plays!
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.
This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.
Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 9 game NBA DraftKings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with DraftKings as I rarely play on FanDuel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
Draftkings NBA Value Plays – The Top Tier Plays
Point Guard: Kemba Walker vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $9,300 – Needs to score 46.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (60.45 for 6.5x)
We’re being spoiled by the NBA with these slates, yesterday we had 6 games and now today we get a fun-filled 9 game slate! First up as a top play is Kemba Walker who gets to face a Washington Wizards team that is allowing opposing point guards to score 50.90 fantasy points per game. Walker is averaging 42.8 fantasy points per game and 1.25 fantasy points per minute.
On the season, he is averaging 24 points, 5 assist and 4 rebounds with 34 minutes per game. Before the final game of the All-Star break, Kemba Walker scored 50+ fantasy points five straight games. With him facing a horrible Washington team tonight, he should easily start the second half of the season on a good note.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $9,200 – Needs to score 46 fantasy points or more to exceed value (59.8 for 6.5x)
It’s hard to hop out of the same game as Kemba Walker when Bradley Beal is on the opposite end. Before the break, Beal was on a massive dominant spree, exceeding value in 11 straight games! Now he’s facing a Charlotte Hornets team allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 9 assist and 6 rebounds per game plus 44.11 fantasy points.
While that is below his 5x value, I don’t see Charlotte stopping Beal, he’s a must not fade player with John Wall out for the season, plus next. Beal is averaging 25 points, 5 assist and 5 rebounds with a usage rate of 28%. The Wizards have absolutely no one else to lean on, giving more reason to play Beal while his price is very reasonable.
Small Forward: Luka Doncic vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $9,100 – Needs to score 45.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (59.15 for 6.5x)
The young rookie, Luka Doncic, is another one on a good streak for tonight’s slate but he does have a more difficult challenge. He gets to face the Denver Nuggets who are allowing opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assist. The Nuggets also only allow 41.80 fantasy points per game for opposing small forwards.
Now, Luka Doncic is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist with a usage rate of 29%. Plus he is also coming off an All Star break that he enjoyed more than the rest I believe which should give him added fuel to dominate the second half. He’s averaging 40.8 fantasy points per game and 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Doncic also returned value in 4 of the last five games of the first half of the season.
Power Forward: Blake Griffin vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (57.85 for 6.5x)
I love playing some Blake Griffin and tonight is the perfect night to play him due to him facing the fast paced Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are currently allowing opposing power forwards to average 24 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assist per game. They are also giving up the most fantasy points to power forwards with 52.15, almost what we’re looking for with Blake Griffin and his 6.5x value tonight.
Griffin is averaging a usage rate of 30% with 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist per game. In the last match-up though against the Atlanta Hawks, Griffin only recorded 15 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assist. We’ll need a much better outing from Griffin tonight though to reach the 5x value at minimum.
Center: Nikola Vucevic vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $9,800 – Needs to score 49 fantasy points or more to exceed value (63.7 for 6.5x)
We have a good depth at center once again but the highlight of it all is Nikola Vucevic, who gets to face the Chicago Bulls. Vucevic is averaging 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assist with a 28% usage rate. He’s averaging 46.2 fantasy points per game and 1.49 fantasy points per minute. The Bulls defense is allowing opposing centers to average 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, plus 58.52 fantasy points per game.
In their last meeting, Vucevic recorded a triple double with 22 points, 12 assist, and 10 rebounds. With fresh legs off of the All Star break, Nikola Vucevic should be able to redo what he did to the Chicago Bulls in their last meeting.
Draftkings NBA Value Plays – The Mid Tier Value Plays
Point Guard: Jamal Murray vs. Dallas Mavericks
Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.95 for 6.5x)
This is a risky play once again as Jamal Murray is still fresh off an injury but the All Star break should have helped him be ready for the final half of the season. Murray is averaging 18 points, 5 assist and 4 rebounds with a usage rate of 25% on the season. Now since returning from injury, Murray has scored 42.8, 40.8, 24.3, and 18 fantasy points, not the prettiest of numbers. This Dallas Mavericks team is allowing opposing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist and 6 rebounds per game, plus 48.07 fantasy points. If healthy and with a full break for rest, Murray should be a good mid tier play tonight.
Shooting Guard: Tomas Satoransky vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $5,900 – Needs to score 29.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (38.35 for 6.5x)
I need to double-check with Brian but I believe we can run with the newborn baby narrative with Tomas Satoransky who had missed a couple of games before the All Star break for his wife’s pregnancy. You can run Satoransky with Beal and still be good on salary tonight which is a great feel.
Satoransky is currently averaging 8 points, 4 assist, and 3 rebounds while averaging around 24 minutes. We’ve already covered that the Charlotte Hornets allow 44.11 fantasy points to shooting guards with the Bradley Beal piece. Satoransky will keep getting burn too while the Wizards are short on point guards and he should see close to 30 minutes with fresh legs.
Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.25 for 6.5x)
We love to hate Andrew Wiggins but he finished the first half of the season on two good back to back games with 47.8 and 51 fantasy points. He’s averaging 30.8 fantasy points per game and .90 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face the New York Knicks who are giving up the most fantasy points to small forwards with 44.11 fantasy points. But they are also allowing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Wiggins has a usage rate of 24% while averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist per game. Tonight, I’m on the fence playing Wiggins but if he helps with salary then he’ll turn in to a must play.
Power Forward: Bobby Portis vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)
Bobby Portis has been on a tear where he’s proving that the Chicago Bulls were idiots for trading him away, even if they are “tanking”. Portis has returned value in five of the seven games since joining the Wizards and will most likely not slow down any time soon. He’s averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 1 assist on the season with a usage rate of 26%.
He has also played near 30 minutes in every game with the Wizards, his lowest being 24 minutes in the first two games. This Charlotte Hornets team is also allowing power forwards to average 50.47 fantasy points per game. Portis only averages 28.4 fantasy points per game but will most likely easily hit 5x value tonight with fresh legs.
Center: Steven Adams vs. Utah Jazz
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)
Steven Adams is a very unsung or even quiet hero for this Oklahoma City team with his teammates being Russell Westbrook and Paul George. Adams is averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate of just 16%. He’s averaging around 34 minutes per game though. Now he gets to face a Utah Jazz team allowing opposing centers to average 22 points, 14 rebounds and 4 assist per game, plus giving up 58.05 fantasy points too.
Adams is averaging 33.4 fantasy points per game and 1.01 fantasy points per minute. In their previous match-up, Adams recorded 22 points and 7 rebounds. If he repeats that match-up then 31 fantasy points will be easily met for Steven Adams.
Draftkings NBA Value Plays – The Low Tier Value Plays
Point Guard: D.J. Augustin vs. Chicago Bulls
Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)
D.J. Augustin is like crack to me because I’ll always go back to playing him when I need salary relief, no matter what the match-up looks like. But tonight, it’s a good one as the Chicago Bulls allow opposing point guards to average 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assist per game, plus give up 47.83 fantasy points to the position.
Augustin is averaging 27 minutes per game with 11 points, 5 assist and 2 rebounds. He’s also averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game and .84 fantasy points per minute. The minutes are there easily for Augustin, it’s what he manages to do with them that counts the most.
Shooting Guard: Jeremy Lin vs. San Antonio Spurs
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)
Jeremy Lin officially made his long-awaited Toronto Raptors debut right before the All Star break and made a nice impact. Now he gets to face a weird San Antonio team that has it’s good and bad nights. Lin returned value on February 13th, scoring 24.3 fantasy points off of 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist.
Will he see the same burn or more now with the entire Raptors squad healthy off the break? We don’t know. But the Spurs are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assist, plus 41.96 fantasy points per game. If Lin is able to run around 25 minutes again, we should see him hit his low ceiling of 22.5 fantasy points.
Small Forward: Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $5,100 – Needs to score 25.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (33.15 for 6.5x)
Mr. Shoot It All can’t actually shoot all he wants now, being in Dallas with Luka Doncic which isn’t actually a bad thing. Tim Hardaway Jr. is still hitting some small bumps in the road with his new squad but at a price tag of $5,100 tonight versus the Nuggets, he’s a great salary relief option. Hardaway Jr. is averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assist per game this season with a usage rate of 26%.
He’s averaging 29.5 fantasy points per game and .92 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face a Denver defense that is allowing opposing small forwards to average 41.80 fantasy points per game. He may have on and off nights with the Dallas Mavericks currently but like the rest of these guys, the long break of All Star weekend can help THJ out tremendously.
Power Forward: Dario Saric vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)
Dario Saric is in a battle with Taj Gibson for the starting position on this Minnesota Timberwolves squad and it’s his job to lose. Since taking it over on the 11th, Saric scored 37.5 and 29 fantasy points and is still only priced at $4,800. He’s averaging 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 assist per game with a usage rate of 17%. He gets to face a New York Knicks team that is allowing opposing forwards to average 23 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assist, plus 50.18 fantasy points. This could be an easy steal play but once everyone sees Saric in the starting lineup, he may become chalky.
Center: Derrick Favors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)
Derrick Favors is a play that can easily hit or easily destroy our night for us but luckily he plays in the last game of the night so lets wait the tilt! Favors is currently averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds with a usage rate of 18% while playing around 23 minutes per game. He’s also averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game and 1.10 fantasy points per minute.
Favors also hit his 5x value in the final 3 games before the All Star break, scoring 25.3, 29.5, and 32.3 fantasy points. He gets to face a Oklahoma City Thunder defense that is allowing opposing centers to average 24 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assist per game. To me though, Favors is a last resort type of guy when I’m trying to save salary as he can be played in multiple positions, the power forward and center.
Draftkings NBA Value Plays – Who To Pair and Sample Lineup
The first play that I’m actually starting my lineup with is Dario Saric as he is cheap at $4,800 and should be starting unless the ‘Wolves get crazy on us before lock. The next up is Bradley Beal who I believe is a guy we can not fade until he gives us a reason too. But I’ll also be throwing in his teammate, Tomas Satoransky, who will be fresh and possible narrative for us. Now lets throw in the amazing and Brian’s best friend forever, Tim Hardaway Jr!
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This is where I may go cheap at center and use Derrick Favors due to only having $6,250 left per average of play but I also really want Kemba Walker in the lineup too. Having thrown both of those two guys in and if we throw in D.J. Augustin then adding Kemba Walker will be an easy fit for our lineup build. See the lineup below for a general idea of how to build for tonight’s 9 game slate! Good luck and cash out!
PG: Tomas Satoransky ($5,900)
SG: Bradley Beal ($9,200)
SF: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,100)
PF: Dario Saric ($4,800)
C: Derrick Favors ($4,800)
G: D.J. Augustin ($4,400)
F: Andrew Wiggins ($6,500)
Util: Kemba Walker ($9,300)
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