FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday 2/22 – Fire up the Pistons
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 2/22
Welcome back to the Friday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
Last night I was humbled by the NBA once again. I had a cash lineup that I thought was really solid and I ended up finishing well below the pay line. While looking back on where you went wrong can be helpful to an extent, at some point you just have to be willing to move on to the next slate and start all over again. The beauty of DFS is that we have a new opportunity the very next day to redeem ourselves and that’s what I plan on doing tonight!
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
Tonight we have a 9-game slate that locks at 7:00. The majority of the games are early and the last game on the slate tips at 9:30 so there’s actually a chance I may see where I stand before going to bed for once!
In order to win in NBA DFS, you have to be flexible with your roster construction and sometimes take things down to the wire before lock with late-breaking injury information. At the same time, I always warn against totally scrapping your original first look build, as sometimes the plays that you were on the night before or that morning end up still being the best plays on the slate.
Let’s get things started with our first look at the injury report and Vegas data!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look
Injury Report
OUT: Fred VanVleet, Frank Nkilitina, Robert Covington, Kyle Anderson, Jonas Valanciunas, Dwight Howard, Gorgui Dieng
DOUBTFUL: Kevin Huerter,
QUESTIONABLE: Emmanuel Mudiay, Dennis Schroder, Jaren Jackson Jr., Markieff Morris, Myles Turner
PROBABLE: Derrick White, Kris Dunn, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joakim Noah
Not too much to monitor today, but don’t get used to it! Som of these probable tags are just because this is the first game back for these teams since the break, I would expect all of them to play tonight.
Vegas Info
***There are no double-digit spreads tonight! That doesn’t mean we won’t get any blowouts, but it does mean there aren’t any games we have to avoid due to blowout concerns.
***There are three games with totals opening at 226 or higher. OKC-Utah (226), San Antonio-Toronto (228), and Washington-Charlotte (230) are all games that I have a high level of interest in targeting.
***The tightest spread comes from the Memphis-L.A. Clippers game with the Clippers being only two-point road favorites. This game also has the lowest total on the slate at 214, which isn’t that low compared to some of the other totals we’ve seen this year.
***The Pistons, Pacers, and Jazz are all being paced up the most by their opponents tonight. Pace matters!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
Jeff Teague (7100)
Teague has been spectacular since returning from injury and piled up 40 and 50 FD points in his final two games before the break. He’s really an underrated NBA player and fantasy player. This price is fair and the matchup is excellent as New York is terrible defensively, especially Dennis Smith Jr. at the point guard position. I’ll lock in Teague in my cash lineups tonight with an expectation of 35-40 FD points.
Blake Griffin (9200)
Blake is my favorite spend up today on a slate that doesn’t have that oddly doesn’t have many superstars considering there are 18 teams in action. The Pistons are being paced up more than any other team on the slate and Atlanta is one of the worst defenses in the league. Blake is top 10 in the NBA in minutes and played and usage rate (find more good first half stats here) and I think he will thrive in this spot against the Hawks tonight.
Jabari Parker (5400)
If you throw out the one 7-point game that Parker had against the Pistons, Jabari is averaging over 40 FD points in his other three games as a member of the Wizards. He’s had a solid 21% usage rate coming off the bench for Washington and his minutes and role seem really secure on his new team. This price still doesn’t seem high enough for a guy like Parker who can score with ease. I’m taking him tonight in a good spot against Charlotte and I think that game could have a lot of fantasy potential.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
Paul George (11800)
Paul George is a bona-fide superstar and is now finally priced like one. I don’t think you need him or Westbrook in cash games today, but I wouldn’t blame you for playing either. I do think George has reached every-night GPP consideration based on how he’s elevated his game this season and this game against Utah tonight should be a good one. PG13 has averaged 37-8-4.5 in two games against the Jazz this season so we know he has massive upside in this matchup tonight.
Lou Williams (8300)
Did you know Lou Williams had the third highest usage rate in the NBA during the first half? I know I keep referring to my first half statistical analysis (you should really read it) but that’s something that really surprised me when I was digging into stats over the break. Since Tobias Harris left town it’s been the Lou-Will show and his price and the perceived tough matchup against Memphis (which isn’t that tough anymore) should keep his ownership down. He’s an elite GPP play tonight.
Julius Randle (7800)
With news coming out yesterday that Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday will have minutes limited in the second half, I am loading up on Julius Randle at this price. I guarantee you that Randle will be a 9k player on FanDuel and soon. He has a very fantasy-friendly game and he’s going to soak up a ton of the usage that Davis and Holiday leave on the floor when they are resting. Fire him up tonight against Indiana with confidence.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
Joakim Noah (4000) and Ivan Rabb (3600)
With Jonas Valanciunas out and Jaren Jackson Jr. questionable, the Memphis Grizzlies will be shorthanded in the frontcourt. Noah has been solid this season when pressed into action and it was only a few weeks ago that Rabb was a 6k player when he was starting and before JV came to town. I love using both in the same lineup as a “double-punt” strategy tonight.
Kadeem Allen (4200)
Allen has been the best Knicks guard off the bench and has now scored 27 or more FanDuel points in four straight games. Mudiay could return for the Knicks and their rotations are hard to trust, but I’ll take a shot on Allen tonight at this price.
Dennis Schroeder (5000)
Value alert! Schroder should return from an injury tonight and is cheaper than I’ve seen him all season. He’s an elite play in all formats if he plays as he is a high-usage, high-volume player off the bench for the Thunder.
Avery Bradley (4700)
It feels gross writing up Avery Bradley, but he’s been very good since arriving in Memphis. Tonight is a “revenge game” against the Clippers who just traded him and you all know I don’t care much for narratives, but I do think it’s a good matchup for Bradley and some of the other cheap Grizzlies players tonight.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
Here’s where you can take a look at my top three at each position. My rankings are based on the point-per-dollar upside for both GPP and cash games. My player pool usually includes other players who are not listed here, especially value plays.
Point Guard
Shooting Guard
- Lou Williams
- Bradley Beal
- Terrance Ross
Small Forward
- Paul George
- Danilo Gallinari
- Jabari Parker
Power Forward
- Blake Griffin
- Julius Randle
- Bobby Portis
Center
- Nikola Vucevic
- Robin Lopez
- Joakim Noah
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll the cash core plays in there along with my favorite value plays and some other mid-tier guys who I think have solid floors tonight.
I’m paying up at shooting guard which not something that a lot of people like to do, but I think it’s important to lock in some raw points there tonight and take the value we have from the Memphis big men at power forward and center.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are at least 1-2 tweaks that need to be made even on a day that doesn’t have much injury news we are waiting on!
PG: Jeff Teague (7000)
PG: Reggie Jackson (5700)
SG: Bradley Beal (9400)
SG: Lou Williams (8300)
SF: Jabari Parker (5600)
SF: Danilo Gallinari (6900)
PF: Blake Griffin (9200)
PF: Ivan Rabb (3600)
C: Joakim Noah (4000)
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!