Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Friday February 22
Welcome into the Friday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays! We have a nine game slate on hand tonight with some big time names to choose from for the slate!
This is a very odd slate. There’s a few games that look pretty poor on the face of things, because we have teams like the Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies and Wizards tonight. The flip side is some of those bad teams are bad because they can’t play defense, which means they could be good games to target for fantasy. There’s also some big names like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and the combo of Paul George and Russell Westbrook so there are plenty of directions to go in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Darren Collison, Pacers
Most of the pricing on DraftKings makes a lot more sense than last night, but one player that may have slipped through the cracks a little bit is Collison. There’s simply no real reason for Collison to be under $6,000 on DK in this spot and he’s getting the added bonus of Jrue Holiday playing a few less minutes now too. It might not be a massive difference, but every little bit helps.
With Victor Oladipo off the floor so far this season, Collison has seen a usage bump of 1.5 percent and a small increase in FPPM. The Pelicans have been a poor defensive team all year long and clearly have waved the white flag, which means some players might not give that much effort at this point. The veteran guard is averaging his highest assist percentage of his entire career at 28.9 percent and New Orleans allows the fourth most assists to the position. All the factors point towards a big game for Collison here.
Honorable Mention – Kemba Walker, Hornets
Fade – Dennis Smith, Jr., Knicks
I’ve been using a lot of Smith leading up to the All-Star Break but this is a good spot to hit the brakes. First off, we have David Fizdale as the coach. For as much as Kenny Atkinson of the Nets frustrated me last night with his minutes and his fibbing about who got the minutes pregame, Fizdale is far worse. Logic would say that Smith would get big minutes no matter what but Fizdale hasn’t had logic all year. A player named John Jenkins who just got signed to a contract saw 27 minutes in the last game before the break. That tells you how far you can trust Fizdale.
On top of that, the price is not great anymore. He’s $7,000 on DK which means you need 42 fantasy points to get to 6x. That’s going to be a tough ask if he plays 35 minutes and I wouldn’t be banking on that. New York could get some players back from injury as well, meaning they are a mess that doesn’t need to be touched on a big slate.
Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Hawks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Luke Kennard, Pistons
I’m going to bet that many readers didn’t expect Kennard to be in this spot no matter what the slate is. That likely goes double since the Raptors and Spurs play each other in Toronto so everyone likely expected to see DeMar DeRozan in this spot. I will buy into that revenge narrative because it’s the first time DDR has been back to Toronto and he noticed a triple double the first game against the Raptors. However, I believe one of the better salary savers on the board tonight is Kennard.
We always love picking on the Hawks due to their ability to push the pace and their inability to defend any position on the floor. Since the trade of Reggie Bullock to the Lakers, that’s opened up a lot of minutes for Kennard and he’s been relatively good with them. Sure, he’s not the guy that breaks the slate but he’s only $4,000 and the Hawks are giving up the eighth highest field goal percentage from three. The young man for the Pistons shoots almost four three’s a game on the season and that’s in limited minutes. He and DeRozan make a nice tandem tonight.
Honorable Mention – DeRozan
Fade – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans
Maybe this is cherry picking a little bit, but you need to know what the situation is for the Pelicans moving forward. Before the break, I kind of lumped the Pelicans players as GPP only because their situation was so odd. Anthony Davis was halfway out the door and wasn’t playing full minutes, which was mostly rubbing off on the team as a whole. Now interim GM Danny Ferry has announced that Davis will be facing a minutes limit of 20-25 every night and Holiday will also only play around 30 a night. While that’s still plenty of minutes, it’s enough to make me be very nervous.
Elfrid Payton is also supposed to make his return, which isn’t something that’s totally useful. With the price tag still hovering around the same level it has been for weeks, there’s suddenly a very real floor involved with Holiday. I can’t blame the Pelicans for treating the players with caution to protect potential trades over the summer, but that doesn’t do us any good for fantasy tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Bojan Bogdanovic, Pacers
Yet another player making his(likely) debut in this space, Bogdanovic finds himself in a fantastic spot and is probably not priced fairly for his role. One of the things that I’ve learned this season is when the Pelicans are on the slate, you attack them with wing players from the opposite team. Bogdanovic fits that bill in a big way because he’s an underrated scoring player, especially with Oladipo out of action.
New Orleans gives up the fifth most real points to small forwards and the third most three pointers. Bogdanovic is shooting almost 43 percent from deep and is taking closer to five attempts a game on top of that. In a game that can get up and down, Bogdanovic seems like a very safe bet for at least 20 real points. Once we add in whatever else he does on the court, he should easily eclipse his salary of just $5,500 on DK tonight.
Honorable Mention – Paul George, Thunder
Fade – Jonathan Isaac, Magic
This is kind of a soft fade, because I don’t believe you shouldn’t even consider Isaac tonight. Where the issue comes in is he’s not seeing quite as many minutes as I would like for paying over $6,000 on both sites. There’s not denying that he’s been incredible lately and this is a good spot to potentially stay hot. Chicago is a bad defensive team but my issue becomes trying to pick who has the best game – Aaron Gordon, Isaac, Terrance Ross or Evan Fournier.
Considering there’s a bit of a logjam on the Magic with who could be the one to have the biggest game, it’s dangerous to pay a premium for Isaac while he’s generally not hitting the 30 minute mark. $6,100 on DK represents a price that carries a low floor so proceed with caution.
Honorable Mention – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Blake Griffin, Pistons
It’s a little bit weird to have written up 2 players from the same team twice so far, but that’s what the honorable mentions are for. As things stand, we’ve got a nice balance going between cheaper players and now we’re getting to the expensive players. No matter what size slate or who else is on it, I want pieces of teams against the Hawks and tonight is no different. Through all the other things that have happened this season, Griffin is still the leader in touches per game in the NBA and has evolved his game to include three pointers as well.
The other great facet of Griffin’s game tonight is he shoots the fifth most free throws per game, meaning he gets fouled an awful lot. The forecourt for the Hawks can be a little foul happy and this is a bad matchup for them because they don’t have anyone who can defend Griffin. He and Andre Drummond should be able to do whatever they want down low and his price is still great on both sites. It’s likely not even the worst idea to stack Griffin and Drummond tonight.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Pelicans
Fade – Lauri Markkanen, Bulls
Markkanen is another player who was white-hot before the break that I’m a little concerned about tonight. Firstly, Kris Dunn might be back in the lineup which would be just another mouth to feed. Dunn isn’t the best player but he’s got a sizable role in the offense. Secondly, the Magic play at a slower pace and are very good against the power forward position. I’m not sure Markkanen is quite at the point where I won’t sweat certain matchups.
On the season, Orlando is in the bottom five in DK points allowed and the bottom 12 in real points allowed to the power forward position. That’s certainly not what we’re looking for on paper and then we add in that he’s over $8,000 on each site makes it a very bad mix. You’re looking a t a player that needs to put up basically 50 DK points to have a game worthy of his price and that seems like a bad bet to take.
Honorable Mention – John Collins, Hawks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Nikola Vucevic, Magic
I bet everyone was expecting the other Nikola since I almost always write up Jokic when he’s on the slate. I do still love my man Big Honey tonight since he’s only $10,100 against a Dallas team that has nothing in the paint that can stop him. If we’re talking about vulnerable teams in the paint, we don’t need to look much further than the Bulls. They are in the bottom 10 in both points and rebounds given up in the paint and the bottom five in DK points allowed. Vucevic has been incredible for the Magic all season long and ranks 11th in all of basketball in paint touches per game.
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The prices on DK are similar enough that I think you can basically go with personal preference. The $300 might be the difference in your lineup but both are great options. On FD, Vucevic is $1,000 cheaper than Jokic and that is a big difference. It’s certainly big enough to make Vucevic a much more attractive option. As long as this game stays competitive, I’m not sure how the Bulls have any chance at stopping him inside tonight.
Honorable Mention – Jokic
Fade – Karl Anthony-Towns, Wolves
I’ll admit this could come back to bite me but I’m not that crazy about KAT tonight. Firstly, this isn’t the cream puff matchup that it was a while back. The Knicks used to either run Enes Kanter out there(who can’t play defense) or they banished him to the bench. That left them without much paint presence, but DeAndre Jordan helps that a little bit. I don’t think he fully stops KAT, but it’s enough to note.
Another knock against KAT is pricing. He is the most expensive option on DK and within $200 of being the most expensive on FD. I don’t see why I would pay more instead of just playing Vucevic or jus play Jokic. Both players have higher upside than KAT in my eyes because the Wolves are finally healthy. All of the guards are back and Dario Saric is in the starting lineup, playing solid minutes and contributing. When Towns was on his very productive run, Minnesota was missing a bunch of different bodies. Since that’s not the case anymore, the floor is lower for Towns than some might think.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jazz
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