The Buy-Low List For Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues (February 2019)
Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues leagues are rapidly growing in popularity every season and the format that was initially reserved for the fantasy obsessed is becoming a top option to fill the void created by the football-less spring months.
Startup drafts are happening left and right and the online content available for every format means the competition within these leagues is only getting more stiff.
If you’re lucky enough to be in a league that stays heavily involved every day of the year then consider yourself blessed with an opportunity to take advantage of those quick-trigger league-mates that panic over off-season hype (looking at you, Jerick McKinnon truthers).
Finding the right time to pounce on a forgotten veteran or knowing when to sell high on a rookie workout tape is no easy task. These types of things are what make fantasy football dynasty leagues so unique and challenging while you navigate the vast black-hole of the unknown.
Identifying the top players to buy low on this off-season depends on a lot of things. Team structure, direction, draft capital, cap budget and coaching changes all play a role from the real football end of things.
From a fantasy perspective it’s also important to take into account what type of format, roster size and scoring settings your league keeps from year to year. Buying an up and coming volume heavy running back is always a good bet, but they may drop a few spots if you play in a full PPR or TE premium league as you prioritize pass catchers.
This list is full of recommendations, not guarantees. If I could give one piece of advice to anyone embarking on their first dynasty journey (or stock purchase, for that matter) it’s this: anything that’s an obvious buy or sell is one of the hardest things to buy or sell.
Hype and potential gets discussed so much during the off-season that often times the hype exceeds the potential. Stefon Diggs and Amari Cooper were two examples of this last season. Someone may be a great value at their current price but it doesn’t mean they’re worth buying at any cost. Don’t pay for the breakout before the breakout.
Your league-mates likely have the same subscriptions you do and follow the same industry giants on Twitter. Take that opportunity to zig while everyone zags. The player that wins you a league isn’t typically the one everyone expects.
Don’t believe me? Go ask the owners of Adam Thielen, Derrick Henry or Damien Williams if they saw the same type of preseason media coverage in comparison to guys like Derrius Guice and Kerryon Johnson.
For that reason I’m not going to waste your time naming the obvious breakout candidates because their prices are likely too high already.
I’m also going to hold off on Guice, Kerryon, and Marlon Mack because they’re just too easy. If you’ve tried to acquire these guys in a fantasy football dynasty league, you know exactly what I mean. Consider this the “zig list” while your whole league zags.
Thanks for attending my economics lesson. Let’s football.
The Fantasy Football Dynasty Buy List – February
#10 – Eric Ebron
The Tight End you love to hate and the first person your favorite analyst makes fun of when they discuss outliers. I grew up in Michigan watching this man drop countless passes every Sunday and it was not a pretty sight, so believe me I get it. I’m the first to admit I didn’t expect his explosion in 2018. But….. it….. still…. happened.
Regardless of his performance in Motown, a wise man once told me that the faster your brain can adjust to what is instead of what should be, the happier you will be. This goes for many things in life including relationships, the death of EA Sports’ NCAA football franchise, and Eric Ebron.
Going into 2018 Jack Doyle was a popular late round target and for good reason, but Ebron ascended into top five status quickly and never looked back. Lots of people are calling it a fluke and suggesting he’s a sell candidate, which is exactly why this is the perfect time to send in some offers.
On a per snap basis Doyle actually saw more work on the field overall as he saw 55 snaps per game compared to Ebron’s 40. This is the primary argument for team Doyle out there, but at some point you can’t ignore Ebron’s lead in every other significant category including targets/game, yards/reception, red zone targets/game, and a significant lead in fantasy points per 100 snaps.
All of those statistics factor in the time when they were both healthy for the Colts.
Ebron was Andrew Luck‘s top target in the red zone all season and there’s no reason to assume anything would change going into 2019 besides more consistent time for Jack Doyle. What we saw last year shows that even when both guys are healthy, Luck makes an effort to target Ebron.
It may seem counterproductive to buy someone coming off the best season of their career, but the fact that he’s being paraded as a sell candidate is the main reason you want to go get him.
You can get a discount on last years production based on the perceived “fluke” narrative and you can secure a 25 year old tight end tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the foreseeable future.
Reasonable Price: Anthony Miller
#9 – Marquise Goodwin
Goodwin is another example of how quickly our perception can change based on what we see on the television that day instead of looking at the whole picture. He was climbing up draft boards before Jimmy G went down and every indication was that there was a special connection between the two on the field.
He has Olympic level speed and showed growth last season as a route runner with multiple quarterbacks behind center.
If I were to hop in a time machine and write down everything that was driving the Goodwin hype train last year it would look like this:
Jimmy G has control of the offense, Goodwin = high end athleticism, Kyle Shanahan knows how to scheme for outside WR’s, exciting QB/WR rapport in the preseason.
Now read that back and tell me what’s changed? Take away most franchise quarterbacks and any data that follows should be ignored for fantasy purposes, but not in this case. Somehow Goodwin’s price has hit an all time low based on his mediocre production catching passes from….. Nick Mullens?
When an elite player loses his QB we always suggest it’s because of the injury that he doesn’t produce for our fantasy teams, but in this case it seems like his price is reflected as if Garoppolo was healthy. Something doesn’t add up.
Reasonable Price: 2019 2nd round pick
#8 – Rashaad Penny
I get it…. your coworker poured their heart and soul into the first round of their rookie draft and this man left them standing in the cold. They aren’t sure if they can ever love again.
This is the type of fantasy vulnerability you want to take advantage of.
Penny certainly didn’t live up to the hype and the Chris Carson bandwagon is legit and will likely continue next season to some degree. The primary reason you want to buy Penny is based on his forced volume and production in the later part of the year.
Through the final six games of the regular season Penny averaged over five yards per attempt and it was clear that Pete Carroll had an interest in getting him work.
Carson isn’t going anywhere necessarily but the Seattle backfield was second in the league in rushing attempts per game and there’s plenty of work to go around in that offense. Penny was selected in the first round for a reason and I wouldn’t expect the Seahawks to give up on him this quickly.
He took some time to get going but he looked like the back we expected him to be later in the season and few people noticed. Take advantage of the fact that most people stopped caring about him and labeled him a bust after four weeks – they will happily get him off their roster.
Running backs in the NFL change in the blink of an eye and all it will take is a one or two week stretch where Penny looks like the better back in Seattle and Carrol will make the change.
Old Pete has never been the type to care about being honest with the media or sticking to his original plan, so there’s a very realistic scenario where Penny overtakes the starting spot sooner than you think.
Reasonable Price: Matt Breida
#7 – OJ Howard
When Bruce Arians was hired the initial fantasy reaction looked like this: which RB will they sign?! HUGE bump for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin! ….Oh no! His TE usage is terrible! SELL SELL SELL!
It’s very reasonable to be worried about Howard’s potential if you only look at Arian’s TE usage on a stat sheet and ignore the film. The issue with this viewpoint is that the caliber of the player isn’t being factored in. Talent matters…. a lot. Howard is one of the best offensive prospects to come out of college since Rob Gronkowski and he’s made significant strides every year he’s been in the league.
He finished as the TE7 last season even though he only played ten games. If he had stayed healthy all of 2018 we’re likely discussing him in a similar tier to George Kittle longterm now that he has a coach that has succeeded at the NFL level.
He’s a unique talent that is way too good to be ignored in any offense, especially this one. Arians’ is a coach that knows how to get the most out of his talent (RIP 2016 DJ) and has way too good of a reputation to ignore the dynamic mismatch that Howard presents.
Don’t overthink the coaching change in this case. Howard is phenomenal, Jameis chucks it all over the field, and Arian’s isn’t stupid. OJ will be a fantasy force for years to come and this is the time to appreciate the unknown instead of panicking because of it.
Reasonable Price: 2019 1st
#6 – Corey Davis
Davis is another player that has all the talent in the world but gets crippled by his situation. He was a top five pick coming out of Western Michigan and he jumps off the screen as someone with WR1 ability. His biggest problem so far has been someone other than himself: Marcus Mariota.
Mariota had a promising rookie campaign but has shown some accuracy issues since then and it seems like some of his injuries have hung around longer than expected. It’s a tough thing to predict whether or not Mariota will grow into the franchise savior in Tennessee but one thing was made very clear last season: Corey Davis is going to get the ball.
He saw seven targets a game last year on a struggling offense and owned a whopping 47% target share in the red zone among Titan wide receivers. We don’t typically see WR1 campaigns from players in their first few seasons in the league but Davis fits the mold of someone on the verge of a major fantasy breakout.
He’s younger than Amari Cooper and Kenny Golladay, sits in the top 24 in terms of wide receiver targets and his talent is elite. He’s already being labeled as a bust by many people and a lot of league-mates will be scared off by the Mariota factor.
He’s never going to be cheaper than he is right now and if fantasy football dynasty has taught us one thing it’s this: trade for the talent, wait for the opportunity. We’ve seen situations just like this in the past with guys like Cooper and Stefon Diggs and we saw them truly breakout just when it seemed like it might be time to give up.
There’s not a lot of guys with long term WR1 potential that can come cheap right now. Corey Davis is one of them.
Reasonable price: T.Y Hilton
#5 – James Conner
Did I miss the return of Le’Veon Bell in a Steelers Uniform? No?
So my eyes were correct, and that was James Conner‘s job before his injury? Okay, good. Just making sure I’m still sane.
The only reason Jaylen Samuels saw the field was because of Conner’s nagging ankle injury that will heal up just fine by the time training camp starts. Conner was the darling of the fantasy community through the first ten weeks and the Steelers seemed more than happy to give him the keys to the backfield.
There’s a massive amount of doubt around him in the fantasy community but I can’t seem to wrap my head around why.
Conner was pacing for a phenomenal season statistically and he’s clearly a favorite of the Steelers organization and fan-base. He’s only 23 years old and the departure of Antonio Bro- er, I mean “Mr. Big Chest” should leave even more opportunity in the Pittsburgh offense for Conner and Smith-Schuster to excel.
Jaylen Samuels is a decent back but he doesn’t have the skill set that Conner does and he was behind him on the depth chart for a reason. Unless the Steelers make a splash on draft day or during free agency, this should be James Conner‘s backfield to run with from day one.
Finding someone who has shown RB1 ability and only saw a decrease in volume due to injury is the perfect mold for a buy low. Conner will be the lead back for a potent offense and he’s still got plenty of tread left on the tires.
Reasonable Price: Marlon Mack and a 2019 2nd
#4 – Chris Godwin
Everything we discussed surrounding the uptick for OJ Howard stands firm with Chris Godwin. He’s not the easiest player to acquire right now but it’s worth it either way.
Godwin quietly racked up 842 yards and 7 TD’s in 2018 while navigating two different quarterbacks and an offense that lacked identity. The projected departure of Desean Jackson and the arrival of Bruce Arians points the needle upward for his fantasy outlook.
This one is as cut and dry as it gets, he’s a 22 year old receiver who will likely step into the #2 spot on the WR depth chart and will play for a coach that creates opportunity for his players. Winston’s quarterback play can be spotty at times but the one thing he does every week is take chances with the deep ball.
Godwin has the skill set to take over some of Jackson’s work down the field and remains a primary red zone option. The only reason he’s not in the top spot on this list is because your leaguemates likely know all the same information you do and that could potentially drive the price up.
Reasonable price: 2020 mid-round 1st
#3 – Kenyan Drake
When the nuclear apocalypse eventually hits earth, the three things that will survive are cockroaches, Twinkies…. and Frank Gore. Seriously, the guy’s a tank. But all good things must come to an end and father time is undefeated so savvy owners need to look to the near future and strike before the iron gets hot.
If we’re playing the odds it’s likely that Gore has one season left and the doors will swing open for another running back to take the spotlight for the Dolphins and your fantasy teams.
With the departure of Adam Gase and most of his staff, there’s also a chance that Gore takes on a mentor-ship role and either Drake or Kalen Ballage will move up the depth chart. Ballage is more of a change of pace back than a bruiser, so Drake will be the favorite to see a majority of the volume.
The 24 year old has always shown an ability to excel when given the chance, but the clear favoritism shown by Gase’s staff handcuffed his fantasy potential due to a lack of volume. For some reason unknown to most of us, Gase simply refused to keep Drake in the game no matter how well he played.
Drake ended the season seeing the 28th most touches of any running back in the league but was able to turn that into an RB14 finish. That type of efficiency screams workhorse potential in the right system. He will have a clean slate going into 2019 and his talent has never been in question. I assure you he can be acquired for almost nothing right now and his upside is more than worth the price.
Reasonable price: Dante Pettis
#2 – Christian Kirk
Kirk is coming off a solid rookie campaign and he was able to make the most of his situation catching passes from a struggling Josh Rosen.
Kirk showed flashes of the type of player we saw at A&M and the addition of Kliff Kingsbury could make all the difference for the entire Arizona offense. Kingsbury led a high powered attack and is known for his offensive wizardry that includes getting his play-makers the ball in space.
Kirk will need to see an improvement from Josh Rosen to become an elite fantasy option but his stock is on the rise and the WR position sees the biggest sophomore season jump historically. Kirk will also benefit greatly from an eventual Larry Fitzgerald departure and if he’s in the position to take over the top spot on the depth chart… watch out.
Kirk may have disappointed some owners in year one so there’s a good chance you can get him at a discount right now, before we see the scheme that Kingsbury will implement. If his history is any indication – it will be a good one.
Reasonable price: Tarik Cohen
#1 – Jarvis Landry
Landry was a disappointment last year in comparison to his draft stock but I’ll say what most people don’t want to: maybe it was our fault for setting those expectations?
Landry has never been someone who excelled as an outside receiver and he’s been the prototypical PPR machine in the slot since he came into the league.
Reports and videos surfaced through training camp and the HBO series Hard Knocks made it clear that he was playing on the outside in Cleveland. There was risk to drafting Landry from day one and it was more than reasonable to expect some growing pains in his first season in a new uniform.
The surprising thing about his 2018 campaign was that his opportunity was everything you could hope for, it was just the production was disappointing. He was the ninth heaviest targeted receiver in the NFL and was sixth in terms of air yards.
Those are elite numbers, right up there with the Julio/OBJ’s of the world. Landry had every opportunity to be a fantasy monster but for one reason or another he hasn’t delivered… yet.
He has a full season under his belt in Cleveland and he’ll have an entire off-season and training camp to grow his relationship with Baker Mayfield. This scenario is very similar to Devante Adams during his early years in Green Bay, and if history taught us anything it’s that you want to buy a talented player who sees the volume, even if the performance isn’t there just yet.
More times than not regression will strike in a positive way and you want to make sure you’re ahead of the curve.
Reasonable price: Kenny Golladay + 2019 3rd
Feel free to follow me on Twitter (@TheFFGator) and send any questions you may have regarding potential trades in your Fantasy Football Dynasty leagues. Fantasy never sleeps!