NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, February 22
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Happy Friday all, hope you enjoyed your first night back of NBA DFS and got all the BOBAN you could possibly get. Thursday’s slate ended up being a total chalk fest with guys like Boban Marjanovic and DeMarcus Cousins pushing 80% ownership in GPP play which seems crazy for a six game slate. The winning GPP roster on FantasyDraft in the $25 Pick and Roll put up exactly 350 fantasy points and if you look at their roster, it really just didn’t get cute – ate the chalk and hit on one low owned top play. The roster had Boban and Boogie, along with the Sixers trio of Simmons, Butler and Tobias along with highly owned guards in Devin Booker and Chris Paul but it was the single digit owned Al Horford who dropped a slate leading 62 fantasy points which took this balanced build over the top! I say this all the time on FantasyDraft, because of the contest sizes you rarely have to get cute – outside of Horford, every single one of these plays was highly discussed on essentially every DFS platform yesterday.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday Slate Breakdown:
We step into tonight’s 9 game slate, the first large slate post All-Star Break and from a pure composition perspective, I think this slate will end up looking much different from Thursday for one key reason – there is no Joel Embiid and there is no Boban.
What I really mean is that post break, we have essentially no real big injury news and as a result, we have very little obvious value that unlocks our roster builds. If you look at the slate overall, the only real injury news we have to monitor is Myles Turner who is questionable to play but really outside of that most of the news is known and even though it is the NBA and things can change, we may not have a ton of value to use tonight.
As a result, this could really impact how we view the top-tier plays like Russell Westbrook ($20.3K) and Paul George ($19.3K) who are the top priced plays on the slate in the fastest projected pace game environment against the Utah Jazz.
Westbrook takes his 11 game triple-double streak to the court tonight but this is a match-up we really have not seen him put up ceiling type games as he has only 40 and 45 fantasy points in his two outings versus Utah this season. PG13 lit up this Utah squad for 84 fantasy points in tier last meeting, after “only” 49 the first go round so the ceiling is there but he is priced for it.
Utah is still a top 5 defense this season in terms of Def-Rtg and points allowed, and although that has dropped outside the top 10 in their most recent games, it feels like this is a spot where the match-up and lack of value make it tough to shoehorn in the Thunder Buddies.
If you want to pivot down for your stars, my guess is the correlation of Kawhi Leonard ($17.1K) and DeMar DeRozan ($13.4K) will be a popular route against each other in a narrative spot where DD makes his first trip back to Toronto.
The first time these teams met the Spurs just took it to Toronto where DeRozan went off for 62 fantasy points and at $13.4K today, there is plenty of profit potential still left at that price point. This game has a 228 total which is second highest on the slate but is only a middle of the road pace spot with it being relatively neutral for both teams. In the month of February, no team in the NBA has a worse defensive rating than the Spurs while giving up 122 points per game which is the third most in the NBA during that time frame.
So with that being said – is this the best spot to stack?
NBA DFS – Stacking the Raptors and Spurs:
The Kawhi-DeRozan pairing is going to be a much talked about and likely popular correlation when you consider the pricing and any time you see that, I think you can approach it one of two ways. First, you can just take the fade approach – this is a big enough slate, there are enough good spots to attack, so just ignore it.
Secondly, you can look to stack around, if you think most stop with just a 1-1 correlation, than stack around them and hope this game with one of the highest totals on the slate pays off.
What I find interesting about this stack is how reasonably it is priced, with Kawhi really being the only “big spend” while the rest of the core plays here all sit in the same $12-$13K range on FantasyDraft.
On the Spurs side, my interest lies in the obvious – Derozan ($13.4K), LaMarcus Aldridge ($13.9K) and Rudy Gay ($10.1K) – the top three usage guys on the roster, all putting up over a FP/M this season and seemingly all locked into 30-35 minutes tonight assuming this game stays close.
Nothing flashy, nothing sexy – you need something in the range of 37-43 fantasy points per player to get you 3-3.5x value and it feels like this trio is priced for that kind of production when you consider DD and LMA are averaging 40 fantasy points per game this year. Gay meanwhile steps into this game with 34+ fantasy points in three of his last five outings.
The Raptors are not a team I expected to build around when I first opened this slate as this was a deep team already that has added Marc Gasol and Jeremy Lin to their bench making it one you would think on a 9 game slate you would avoid – but as I mentioned, this San Antonio defense has been one of the worst in the NBA and most DFS players likely don’t view it as such.
Anything you build here likely starts with Kawhi, with Kyle Lowry ($13.5K) being the next man in as attacking the Spurs with opposing PG’s has been a strong strategy all season long. The last three “top-tier” PG’s to face the Spurs have all gone for 40+ fantasy points (Curry, Dame and Fox) and Lowry, much like LMA on the other side just feels like one of those mid-range locks for 35-40 fantasy points in a balanced build.
The front court is much tougher to sort through with the addition of Gasol as you are having to decide between Pascal Siakam ($12.5K) and Serge Ibaka ($12.7K). With Gasol really having the most direct impact on Ibaka and Siakam having played 30+ minutes in 5 straight, I think the best route to go here tonight is to take the $200 discount on Siakam as your third man into a Raptors stack.
I doubt you woke up today and thought, man I can’t wait to stack the Raptors and Spurs, but this 3v3 stack of DD, LMA and Gay versus Kawhi, Lowry and Siakam still leaves you roughly $10K per player for the last two spots on your roster and I would argue that every player here has a 35-40 point “floor” that helps bring a strong foundation to your build.
NBA DFS – Pivot Plays and Values:
No team on the slate sees a bigger point boost over their season average or a bigger projected pace boost than the Detroit Pistons who will take on one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.
Andre Drummond ($16.4K) and Blake Griffin ($16.3K) are one of those upper to mid-range pairings on this slate that stand out on a night where you likely want to go more balanced as this duo has gone back to back games with both players going for 50+ fantasy points.
Drummond, who needs roughly 49 fantasy points to “pay off” his tag has gone five straight games with 50+ fantasy points and has already gone for 48/49 fantasy points in two previous meetings with the Hawks so this feels like a price point with an insanely safe floor and a massive ceiling.
Griffin, interestingly has been held under 35 fantasy points in both previous meetings with Atlanta but this really aligns with their season long metrics as the Hawks defend the PF position at a top 10 rate in terms of Def-Eff, which is the only position they really defend well.
There is some intriguing value here as well with Detroit who has traded away most of their wings, which has pushed Luke Kennard ($7.5K) into a starting role, where he has gone for 23+ fantasy points in three straight which would meet/exceed 3x value at this seemingly too cheap price tag. On a night without a ton of obvious value, Kennard opens up a ton!
Sitting below Drummond and Griffin tonight is Anthony Davis ($15.8K) who is at a tantalizing price but I think our best course of action for the time being is to avoid the Pelicans at all costs as interim GM, Danny Ferry, has made it clear the minutes will be reduced for the guys like AD and Jrue Holiday.
More to come but Pelicans interim GM Danny Ferry says AD will play the rest of the season but minutes down, Jrue will also see his minutes decrease.
— Andrew Lopez (@_Andrew_Lopez) February 22, 2019
NBA made it clear he should play.
Pels will give more mins to younger guys and potential FAs (Elfrid, Julius).
On the other side of this game, if Myles Turner does miss, and the fact that after a week off he is tagged as questionable, it is certainly possible – we know to fire up Domantas Sabonis ($10.7K) who averaged 40 fantasy points per game in the most recent four game stretch where Turner was sidelined.
One big man, that is likely not on many people’s radar but I think should be – is Robin Lopez ($7.5K) – otherwise known as the last man standing in Chicago. With Bobby Portis traded and Wendell Carter Jr. sidelined, the Bulls have no choice but to play RoLo big minutes and that has shown in the fact he has played 31 and 32 minutes in his last two games before the break, putting up 36 and 25 fantasy points with 13 and 15 FGA in those two games.
Lopez only needs 22.5 fantasy points to “return value” of 3X his salary and considering he has gone for 3.3X and 4.8x the last two games – this may be another sneaky value play that opens up our roster builds.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup:
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
G: DeMar DeRozan
G: Luke Kennard
G: Kyle Lowry
F/C: Andre Drummond
F/C: LaMarcus Aldridge
F/C: Kawhi Leonard
UTIL: Domantas Sabonis
UTIL: Robin Lopez
Slate Overview: I did not wake up today and think, yes I am going to write up a Raptors/Spurs stack and as use Luke Kennard and Robin Lopez as point per dollar values, but here we are – so let’s get weird.
As much as I would love to pay up for Westbrook and PG13, I think this is a slate without much value that leads me to a more balanced build. Assuming Turner is out – you have 6 guys in this build that seem like 40 point locks with 50+ point ceilings and if you can, gulp, get the continued value from Kennard and RoLo who are locked into 30+ minutes, this feels like a safe cash game strategy with GPP upside.
Keep an eye on the news to see if anything else breaks – otherwise, I guess it is watch Myles Turner status and lock and load. Enjoy the slate all!
dark. Next. NBA DFS - Top Plays and Fades - Friday, February 22
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.