DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Saturday February 23

Welcome into the brand new DraftKings Tiers article! We’re going to be taking a look at a different format DraftKings has offered and see if we can’t conquer it!

I know a lot of you have come to expect the Top Plays and Fades but we’re going to be trying something a little different. If you haven’t noticed, DraftKings runs contests called Tiers, in which you get restricted choices for is roster spots. I’ve started to play them a little more and noticed Stefano Vaccarino (if you’re not following him, you’re doing yourself a disservice) for The Quant Edge wrote for this format. After checking out his article yesterday and doing very well, it hit me that not many analysts are writing for this format so I wanted to jump into DraftKings Tiers!

Since CPR wants to bring you as much coverage as we can, I thought it was my time to try this out. The nice part is the analysis can still be used for the main slate as well. Slates like tonight present you with literally almost 300 players. Tiers narrows everything down to a specific group and I’m excited to get going.

DraftKings Tiers – Tier One

Choices – James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Tier One brings us the studs of the slate and what could be a very tough choice. The first factor is Harden’s availability. He is questionable but I’ll be honest here – I doubt he’s sitting out against the Warriors on national TV unless the injury could cost him a couple of games. Assuming he’s active, it should be noted that his fantasy production has dropped a notch with Chris Paul back in the lineup. Harden is always a threat to hit 80 DK points but that seems less likely, as he does see a drop of 0.13 FPPM with Paul on the floor to when he’s not. Not that it matters a whole lot with Harden but Golden State is in the top 10 against shooting guards so far this year.

The Greek Freak is listed as probable tonight so I don’t have too many concerns about him health wise. I think the biggest issue is how do the Wolves stay close on a back to back, especially if Karl Anthony-Towns is out with a concussion? The flip side of that coin is the Wolves give up the 11th most points in the paint with Towns. Without him, there is nobody that can have a hope of stopping Antetokounmpo and his 6.6 paint touches a game.

Lastly, I tend to think we have the chalk option that I might just eat. Westbrook is on a back to back but he’s an insanely gifted player who seems to have endless energy. His stats on back to backs show basically no split and he gets the Kings, who give up the sixth most DK points to the position. Sacramento is young, hungry and trying to push to the playoffs and the line only opened at the Thunder being favored by seven(with a sparkling 239 total). Westbrook is white-hot right now, has averaged about 27/12/11 in three games so far and there’s a little narrative in my opinion. Don’t think for a second that he doesn’t hear the MVP buzz around Paul George. Westbrook is a very proud player and wants to prove he’s every bit as good, especially after fouling out last night and seeing George have an MVP moment with his game winning shot.

My Ranks – Westbrook, Antetokounmpo, Harden

DraftKings Tiers – Tier Two

Choices – LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Karl Anthony-Towns, Paul George

One of the great things about the Tiers format is it’s really easy to stack Westbrook and George if they’re not in the same Tier. I’m a little surprised they aren’t honestly and my initial plan is to take advantage of it. If you play Classic, the stack would cost $21,900 which is over 40 percent of your salary. All it takes in Tiers is clicking both their names at the top and not worrying about anything else. The Kings play at a super high pace and can hang with the best teams in the league on some nights(ask the Warriors). If this game stays close, you could lock up 120-140 points with these two and I’m not concerned with chalk. I really am not sweating the double overtime game. George hit the game winner and should be fine tonight. The Thunder can’t afford to throttle back on him.

On most nights, I think LeBron would be the most popular option. He’s playing a bad New Orleans team and the Lakers have to beat these kinds of teams to make the postseason. The Pelicans have struggled against wing players all season but I have some hesitation here. Despite claiming that playoff mode had activated, James appeared to coast a little bit against Houston. A player of his caliber can triple double on coast mode, but the floor might be lower with James than you think. He is still a 1.51 FPPM on the season, which is nothing to sneer at.

I think Towns is going to be the lowest owned of the group, if he plays. I’m still sort of in shock that Al Horford went scorched Earth on the Bucks the other night, because typically centers aren’t the way to go against Milwaukee. The one thing I will say is the Bucks actually give up the fourth most real points to centers, so KAT does have GPP appeal if active.

Finally, Durant has safety but I’m not sure you’re going to get 60 out of him again. This past game saw him block seven shots, and if you take that away he would have scored 46 DK points. It’s certainly not bad and it’s not like you have to concern yourself with 6x, but the ceiling for George and probably LeBron is much higher.

My Ranks – George, James, Durant, Towns

DraftKings Tiers – Tier Three

Choices – Steph Curry, Blake Griffin, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Kemba Walker 

Much like Durant, Curry has plenty of safety but facing off against Chris Paul isn’t the best way to pile up the fantasy points. What’s interesting is the Rockets might take the most three’s in the league by a fairly wide margin, but they are fifth in three-point shots attempted against. Golden State is inside the top 10 in three’s attempted a game and as we all know, Curry can get hot with frightening speed.

There’s a sizable group of people who might look right over Griffin after his disaster of a game last night. Not only did he get ejected in the third quarter, he was terrible before that and ruined an elite matchup. If you haven’t guessed, yes I did roster him and no, I’d rather not talk about it. As far as tonight goes, we know that Griffin leads the NBA in touches and has plenty of ceiling. Miami does give up the ninth most DK to power forwards and Griffin is a very nice GPP option.

If you told me Irving was going to play a full allotment of minutes, he would be my number one option. Since the Celtics opened as a 10.5 point favorite and the Bulls played last night, I don’t know if they can keep it close. Chicago can’t defend any position on the floor and Irving meshes well against the Bulls. He’s taken 30 percent of his shots from within five feet and the Bulls sit in the bottom 12 in paint points allowed. I just fear Irving only playing about 28 minutes in this one if Boston plays to capability.

I tend to view Beal and Walker almost the same tonight. I don’t always love players that shoot as much as they do on back to back sets, but they’re both responsible for so much of their team’s offense that I’m willing to risk a poor shooting night. I much prefer Walker here because of the better matchup with the Nets. They give up the seventh highest percentage on three pointers, which has made up 45.3 percent of Walker’s field goal attempts.

Beal has to deal with the Pacers, who still have one of the better defenses on the season. Over the last 15 days, Indiana has given up the ninth fewest real points to shooting guards. I’m not sure how to project the ownership, but Walker might be my favorite of the group for cash and GPP.

My Ranks – Walker, Curry, Griffin, Beal, Irving

DraftKings Tiers – Tier Four

Choices – Andre Drummond, Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, D’Angelo Russell, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen

I have a feeling that the majority of the ownership goes to Booker. I can’t really argue that in cash especially, as we always want players against the Hawks. They give up the second most real points to point guards and most to shooting guards, so this is a fantastic spot for Booker. Even though he’s been fairly average lately, the pace up spot and porous defense mesh extremely well for Booker to have a big game.

My favorite GPP target of this group is Drummond, and I’m not 100 percent I can explain it. That may sound weird, but the numbers for the Heat this season look good on paper. They give up the second fewest DK points, fourth fewest points in the paint and 11th fewest paint rebounds. All this seems like reason to not play Drummond, but for whatever reason he destroys Miami. Since 2017, he has played the Heat eight times. Once he was forced early fo injury and in the other seven he’s scored 55.5, 55.8, 35.3, 35.8, 64, 58.5 and 63 DK points. I’m all over that in GPP.

The two I’m most leery about are Doncic and Markkanen. With Doncic nursing an ankle injury, I think there’s plenty of added risk. Dallas has nothing to play for and Doncic is the unquestioned present and future for the franchise. They won’t hesitate to yank him. He could be worth a flyer just because since the trade of Dennis Smith Jr, he’s near the NBA lead in touches and the Jazz have to be worn out after last night. I generally don’t play against Boston, especially when the game could be over early.

Mitchell is coming off playing plenty of minutes, but gets a much easier matchup against Dallas than he had last night in Oklahoma City. I just don’t love playing Mitchell while Rubio is active. With Rubio on the floor, Mitchell’s usage drops by 4.3 percent and the FPPM drops by 0.15. A lot has to go right to get a big score out of him. Russell is the ultimate GPP option. He could play 27 minutes and you could spend all night swearing at Kenny Atkinson or he could go for 65 DK points. The matchup with Charlotte is intriguing as they are in the bottom half of the league in field goal percentage given up in the 10-19 foot range. That suits Russell’s pull-up game nicely.

My Ranks – Booker, Drummond, Russell, Mitchell, Doncic, Markkanen

DraftKings Tiers – Tier Five

Choices – Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Chris Paul, Mike Conley, Zach LaVine, John Collins, Trae Young

Since it’s a bigger slate, the bottom tiers are a little more crowded than usual so let’s try to cut through some of the muck. First up is the Pelicans and both of these players are close to no-play for the rest of the season for me. We talked yesterday about Holiday being on a minutes restriction, and he only played just 25 minutes last night. Speaking of that, the Pelicans apparently decided to do the same with Randle so I’m not looking at these two very closely. The team simply can’t be trusted. LaVine is going into the same boat as the rest of this game. If you think it stays close, they’re worth playing in GPP. I don’t so I won’t be playing them.

Next up is Gobert and Conley, because I have a little bit of concern with their minutes tonight. Conley was fantastic last night against the Clippers, eclipsing 50 DK points and Cleveland is a spot that we’ve attacked with guards through the season. In fact, they give up the third most DK points on the season and Conley is the lone man left. I just wonder if Memphis dials him back a little bit, since they want to lose games. Gobert played a whopping 44 minutes last night, about a full quarter over his seasonal average. It’s hard to envision Utah pushing him to 30 tonight and even though Dallas traded DeAndre Jordan, they have been surprisingly strong in the paint the past 10 games. They’re in the top half of the league in paint points and rebounds.

That leaves this Tier with three primary choices. If the Rockets want to beat the Warriors, they need a big effort from CP3. I’m a little hesitant to chalk up his 55 DK point game last time as repeatable because Harden dealt with some foul trouble. I think he might be the best GPP option if just looking for low ownership and at least you know the minutes are there, continuing to play over 30 a night.

The big choice is between the Hawks and I’m leaning Young. He’s been playing lights out lately and things seem to be clicking for the young man. With Jeremy Lin a member of the Raptors, the minutes are spiked for Young. Over the past month, Young has seen his usage rise by 1.6 percent and his FPPM rise to 1.36, up from 1.14 on the season. Phoenix has been a bottom five team against point guards and even though Young can be prone to volatility, this is a great spot and he shouldn’t be in Tier 5. Collins could be nice leverage play because he’s seventh in the NBA in paint touches and the Suns are bottom 10 in paint points and rebounds allowed.

My Ranks – Young, Collins, Paul, Conley, LaVine, Gobert, Randle, Holiday

DraftKings Tiers – Tier Six

Choices – Clint Capela, De’Aaron Fox, Deandre Ayton, Hassan Whiteside, Klay Thompson, Buddy Hield, DeMarcus Cousins, Al Horford

I think Horford is still scoring DK points from Thursday night, to be honest. This is an incredible spot for him and he’s been playing extremely well. In the past few weeks, he’s become more consistent with an actual ceiling. He’s with Irving in that I love the spot stats wise, I just hate the Bulls.

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Thompson and Hield are similar in that they both need to score a lot of points to make it all work. It’s also a little harder for both of them because of the amount of other offensive options their teams have. When I look at Hield, the Thunder do allow the 11th most real points to shooting guards. It’s been a weak spot for them all year so I think Hield its the better choice.

Likewise, we can compare another Warrior and King because Cousins and Fox could be viewed as close together, despite being totally different players. Cousins has seen his minutes restriction lifted and they will need his size down low to help with Capela. The Rockets also played Kenneth Faried with Capela some last game, adding to their size down low. Boogie has yet to play 30 but this could be the game where it happens. Fox also should be a safe bet for 30ish minutes against a worn out Thunder team. The Kings are going to try to run as much as they can.

With only three big men left, we have to decide who looks like the best option and it might well be Capela. He notched a double double against the Lakers while playing 33 minutes and the Warriors can be had around the rim. They’re giving up the eighth highest field goal percentage within five feet and the ninth most real points to centers. Capela could be super sneaky, but Whiteside is the lowest potential ownership of any.

The minutes issues with Whiteside are well documented, but they absolutely have to play him against Drummond. Miami simply doesn’t have anyone else to use. I would never tell you to use him in cash, but he does have significant upside if he matches Drummond minutes-wise. Rounding out the Tier, Ayton draws an Atlanta defense that gives up everything to everyone and they rank as the fourth worst team for points in the paint. Ayton is fourth in the NBA in paint points and fifth in paint touches.

My Ranks – Capela, Ayton, Fox, Horford, Cousins, Whiteside, Hield, Thompson

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