Good day and greetings from your NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win Host. Another Saturday is packed full of games and we will try to find you the best values.
Always honesty first – lately my plays have been letting us down. Last article saw us 3W and 4L making our overall record still a winner at 77-64-2. The good comments I received were from the call on North Carolina over Duke, on which most of the money was wagered, so hopefully you finished ahead also.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to the value plays. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
Hopefully today returns to winning form. All times Eastern, here we go with our NCAA basketball best bets to win:
Providence +3 versus Marquette, Noon
The Friars don’t show a lot of statistical advantages, but nevertheless they are 19-9 against a team with an away straight up winning percentage higher than .600. They show up when you least expect them to, so I am giving the nod to them here.
Louisville +6 versus Virginia, Noon
The home team is 4-0 ATS last four games, and Louisville is very good at bouncing back from an ATS loss. This game is the highlight of their season and I expect it to be down to the wire.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Tigers Handle The Wildcats
Auburn +7 versus Kentucky, 1:30 pm
I expect most players will be on Kentucky in this spot given the poor road performances Auburn has displayed so far this season. However, Auburn has fared very well in Kentucky and this has the feel of a close game with a possible upset. I will be in the minority backing the Tigers.
Ball State -5 versus Central Michigan, 2 pm
Ball State is fighting most of the trends here but the line is not set to give anything away. I would expect the public to back CM rather strongly but be disappointed at game’s end. Expect the unexpected here.
George Washington +18 versus VCU, 2 pm
This is an interesting fade of recent trends. The line opened 19 1/2 which makes sense with the power rating even higher and VCU crushing opponents entering their building, but I’ve seen this situation so many times where it looks like the home team will have an easy cover and yet the line drops. If the spread rises back up over 18 this play should be cancelled, and I will tweet it out if so. We should see the public all over VCU which would be another good sign for the underdog if the spread remains 18 or less.
West Virginia +12 versus Baylor, 2 pm
Here is another situation where there are a list of statistics against WV that would drive any gambler to bet Baylor, but so far the line is dropping. WV has lost their last 9 of 10 to the number while being swept on the road. Earlier this year Baylor beat WV by 12 as an underdog and are coming off an impressive road win over ISU as a 10 point dog.
So why is the line falling? Again as with GW above, should the spread reverse and go higher or if the public backs WV this play will be cancelled. I will let you know on twitter if so.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Seminoles Surprise Tar Heels
Florida State +7 versus North Carolina, 3:45 pm
The next game after backing N Car against Duke I am reversing course and taking the points with Florida State on the road. Florida State has won their last 4 road games to the number by a combined 59 points and should have enough to hang with the Tar Heels.
Both teams enter this game with impressive stats, so I won’t list the details because a prognosticator could make a case for either side. Normally in these situations, however, the game ends up going down to the wire.
TCU +2 versus Iowa State, 2 pm
The power rating on this game is ISU by 5 after factoring in the home field advantage, so don’t be surprised if this line keeps drifting higher as public money comes in on the away favorite. The spread opened ISU 1 and I would expect the majority of public support to be on them.
TCU seems to match up well with ISU, having won 5 of 7 ATS including upsetting ISU earlier this month on the road as a 10 point dog. ISU will have revenge on their minds but I think TCU can hold them off and beat them again at home.
Notre Dame +5 versus Virginia Tech, 4 pm
After the injury to VT’s star player Justin Robinson the team has not been the same, and as a result power ratings should be ignored here. The Irish are no prize themselves this season but should be able to hang with or win against VT’s somewhat depleted team.
Delaware +3 1/2 versus Drexel, 5 pm
Delaware has had a difficult time ATS recently, going 1-6-1 their last 8 games. Meanwhile Drexel has covered their last 4 at home. Now is the right time for a change. I expect both team’s starters to battle evenly with Delaware’s bench being strong enough to get the ATS win.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – The Orange Stifle Duke Again
Syracuse +5 versus Duke, 6 pm
Duke is out for revenge after losing to Syracuse in January as a 17 point favorite while the Orange want to prove that game was not a fluke. Historically Syracuse gives Duke ATS fits as they have covered 4 of the last 5.
Duke is the better team on paper and the better team by far in some power rankings. As a result I would expect to see the line move a little higher and the public percentage on Duke to be 66% or greater. However the books are not putting out this line to give money away, so I expect a close game with a chance for the Orange to pull another upset.
USC -2 versus Oregon State, 6 pm
This game opened USC 4 and quickly dropped to the 2 level, and in this case I am fading the move and going with the home favorite. USC has covered 5 in a row in the series (assuming no overtime) and has the home court advantage which should be enough here.
Washington State pick versus Utah, 8 pm
A few games ago Utah would have been a 3-5 point favorite in this spot, but WSU has been playing better and will be looking to avenge an 18 point loss in Utah earlier this year. In that game, Utah forward Tim Allen had 15 points and 9 rebounds but his status is questionable tonight.
Colorado +8 versus Washington, 10:30 pm
All stats point to a win and cover by the Huskies but a large majority of the wagers have been placed on Washington with no change from the opening number of 8. Washington is 5-1-1 last 7 in their series and have won and covered their last 5 at home. The power rating including home court advantage shows Washington as a 10 point favorite.
This is the kind of situation that invites ATS surprises, even outright upsets. Washington is 21-5 straight up overall and a perfect 13-0 at home. Meanwhile Colorado is 16-10 overall but only 5-7 on the road. Expect the public to continue pouring money on Washington.
That’s it for today.