EPL DFS Breakdown – Sunday 2/24/19

The run of five EPL slates in six days continues Sunday with three of the big six clubs in action including a colossal battle between Liverpool and Manchester United.  Keep reading my EPL DFS Breakdown to get all the information regarding the slate.

On Sunday, there will be another two game Premier League slate.  Arsenal face Southampton at home, and in the main match of the day, Liverpool travel to Old Trafford to take on Manchester United.  Arsenal are the biggest favorite on the slate at -1.0 in a game where Vegas set the over/under at 3.0.  Liverpool is very slightly favored to win over United, and the over/under is 2.5 in that fixture.

For a small slate there is some significant injury news to be aware of starting with the availability of Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard.  Ole Gunnar Solskjaer stated that both players will face a fitness test prior to kickoff that they’ll need to pass to play in the game.

Danny Ings is still dealing with a leg injury, meaning Southampton will likely start Charlie Austin again.  Dejan Lovren remains out for Liverpool, and Ainsley Maitland-Niles is questionable for Arsenal with an illness meaning Stephan Lichtsteiner might get a start.

With only four teams on the slate, this breakdown will be in a team-by-team format.

Southampton

As mentioned, Danny Ings is not set to return from his injury.  This means that Charlie Austin ($6,500) will most likely start up top.  A matchup with Arsenal at home is not good, and I would only consider him if you need a punt to save salary for studs.

After scoring in three straight games, James Ward-Prowse ($9,000) has cooled off.  This isn’t a good matchup for him, and it doesn’t make much sense to pay up for him on this slate.  Saving money and rostering Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($7,500) makes more sense for some exposure to Southampton.  Manager Ralph Hasenhuttl revealed that Stuart Armstrong ($7,000) has been training for a few weeks without issue and said he would be available for the game Sunday if chosen.  Price considered, he’d be my favorite Southampton midfielder.  You can see what Hasenhuttl had to say about Armstrong here:

Jan Bednarek ($6,500) has seen a massive price increase recently.  This is a really tough price to pay for him and his limited attacking upside when there are many high-priced studs on the slate.  Jannik Vestergaard ($5,000) remains cheap and is viable in all formats.

Alex McCarthy ($4,500) will likely be bombarded with shots and shouldn’t struggle getting saves points.  However, a clean sheet or win bonus are extremely unlikely and this is not the place to take a risk.

Arsenal

Both Arsenal forwards will enjoy a tasty matchup at home against a Southampton side conceding 1.77 goals per game on the road.  Arsenal are the biggest favorites and this game has the highest over/under, so getting at least one of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($12,000) and Alexandre Lacazette ($11,500) is a smart move.  Lacazette is coming into this game in better form with three goals in his last four EPL games, but Aubameyang has the higher ceiling of the two.  Trying to roster both is an intriguing GPP idea if you’re looking to stack.

Arsenal’s midfield has been super inconsistent from a fantasy perspective this season.  Henrikh Mkhitaryan ($8,000) is the safest play, and he’s also pretty affordable.  I wouldn’t recommend Mesut Ozil ($8,000), Granit Xhaka ($7,500), or Aaron Ramsey ($7,500) even as parts of a stack.  Cheaper exposure to Arsenal like Alex Iwobi ($7,000) or Lucas Torreira ($6,500) is smarter.

I don’t see the need to pay up for Nacho Monreal ($6,500) on this slate when you can get guys like Sead Kolasinac ($5,500) or Laurent Koscielny ($5,000) for much cheaper.  Koscielny is averaging 37.5 FDP over his last three EPL games, and in a plus matchup on Sunday, should get involved in the attack as he looks to continue is good run.

Bernd Leno ($6,000) is likely going to be the chalk GK on this slate.  Southampton have been playing well on the road, but they still only average 1.0 goals per game on the road.  Leno should be able to make some saves and is the clearest option for a win and clean sheet.

Liverpool

Paying for Roberto Firmino ($12,500), who only has two goals in 2019, on the road against a reignited Manchester United team seems like a strategy best left for big GPPs.

Mo Salah ($13,000) is really expensive for this tough matchup.  This seems like more of a Salah floor game to me with the way United have been playing recently.  However, Salah has proven he can score against the best of the best.  Playing him could be viable in GPPs where you might find lower-than-normal ownership given a difficult matchup and other studs to pay for on this slate.  Sadio Mane ($11,500) will cost you $1,500 less than Salah, and he’s scored in four straight games.  Mane is a guy to ride while he’s hot.  The rest of the Liverpool midfielders don’t carry much appeal to me fantasy-wise.

Andrew Robertson ($6,500) might be important to Liverpool’s success this season, but he’s only had three 20+ FDP games since September.  He will have to do more defending against United and won’t be as involved in the attack on Sunday, so I would not recommend him.  If you’re looking for a Liverpool defender, Trent Alexander-Arnold ($5,500) has nearly as much attacking upside as Robertson and Joel Matip ($5,000) has been playing well.

Alisson ($6,500) has some appeal for me on this slate.  The way United have been scoring lately does not bode well for a clean sheet bonus, however, a win bonus is possible, and he should get a decent number of save points.

Manchester United

Marcus Rashford ($13,000) is probably the most in-form striker on the league right now.  He’s scored 7 goals in his last 10 EPL games.  He’s also been putting tons of shots on goal (2.4 per game in his last 10) which is great for his fantasy floor.  Liverpool have only allowed 15 goals in 26 games this year, so the matchup isn’t ideal for Rashford, but you need to spend money somewhere on this slate, and Rashford is a solid place to spend.

Paul Pogba ($11,000) has been a huge reason for United’s recent success.  He has 8 goals in his last 8 games.  He’s also done well recently creating chances and getting shots on goal.  The fact that he’s $2,000 less than Salah at home is a little surprising.  He’s one of the best dollar-for-dollar midfield plays in this slate.  The rest of Manchester United’s midfielders are all underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, and I can’t recommend them on this slate.

Luke Shaw ($5,500) has seen his price come back down a little bit recently, putting him back into consideration.  Shaw fills the stat box very well, and he should be busy in this game especially if it opens up.  There’s some attacking upside here with Shaw as well, making him a good play in all formats.  Chris Smalling ($5,500) is worthy of consideration as well.

David de Gea ($6,500) is really tough to separate from Alisson on this slate in my opinion.  Both GKs are likely going to make some saves.  Both GKs will be hard pressed to keep a clean sheet and depending on how the rest of their team plays, both GKs could get a win bonus.  I’m leaning playing it safe with Leno right now, but both DDG and Alisson have massive potential.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown and good luck on Sunday!  I’ll be back for midweek EPL on Tuesday!