NBA Draftkings – The Top Salary Value Plays – Stop Jokic and Play Him!

NBA Draftkings Value Plays – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the top Draftkings NBA Value Plays!

For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.

This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.

Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 3 game early slate and 2 game evening slate on NBA DraftKings. As always though, I will be sticking with DraftKings as I rarely play on FanDuel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!

NBA Draftkings – Early Slate: The Top Tier Value Plays

Point Guard: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. San Antonio Spurs

Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value (44.2 for 6.5x)

We get a weird and funky slate today for the NBA and it makes picking who to choose at every position tougher. DSJ is getting a lot of burn with the New York Knicks and that could be to prepare for the off-season and where to trade him to next. He has played 30 minutes or more in every game as a Knicks besides two. He’s averaging 26.8 fantasy points per game and .95 fantasy points per minute. He does get to face thee San Antonio Spurs who are allowing opposing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist and 5 rebounds, plus 47.32 fantasy points per game. We don’t have the prettiest of point guard depth but DSJ has a nice opportunity on this early slate.

Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan vs. New York Knicks

Salary: $8,100 – Needs to score 40.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (52.65 for 6.5x)

Staying in the same game but on the opposite end, DeRozan is in a pretty good match-up also versus the New York Knicks who give up the third most fantasy points to shooting guards with 44.24 fantasy points. DeRozan is averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assist with a usage rate of 28.5%. He’s also averaging 40.3 fantasy points per game and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Because there are only 3 games on this slate, DeRozan also gets a big price increase from $7,300 to $8,100 but the Knicks defense versus shooting guards plays a big rule in it also. There may be better options at a lower price but we’ll get to that on the next couple slides.

Small Forward: Danilo Gallinari vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (43.55 for 6.5x)

Now Kawhi Leonard costs way to much to be a top-tier play this morning, I want nothing to do with him. Since we have DeMar DeRozan at the shooting guard slot already, Gallinari makes for a great candidate, plus the Clippers really have no one but him and Lou Williams. Gallinari is averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist per game with a usage rate of 22%. He’s averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute also. On the defensive end, the Nuggets are giving up 41.80 fantasy points per game to small forwards.

Power Forward: Aaron Gordon vs. Toronto Raptors

Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.25 for 6.5x)

Aaron Gordon is a tough one to call but facing the Toronto Raptors, he should be a good play for this morning slate. He’s averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 21%. He’s also averaging 33.2 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. Gordon has hit value in three straight games, plus the first game back after the All Star break with 34.25 fantasy points. The Toronto Raptors do give up only 47 fantasy points to power forwards which isn’t too high up on the board. They allow opposing power forwards to average 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. With such a small slate, Gordon may end up being chalky, especially if people avoid using Kawhi Leonard.

Center: Nikola Jokic vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $10,100 – Needs to score 50.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (65.65 for 6.5x)

Finally a player over $10k on the top-tier plays list! Nikola Jokic is facing a very weak Los Angeles Clippers defense versus centers that allow the second most fantasy points with 62.25. In their previous match-up on January 10th, Jokic dropped a triple double versus the Clippers with 18 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assist! But beware, he’ll probably end up chalky on this slate. He’s averaging 50 fantasy points per game and 1.58 fantasy points per minute. He barely missed value on Friday, scoring 49.25 fantasy points against the Dallas Mavericks. But I wouldn’t worry too much since he’s facing the Clippers and should easy push 6x value. I’ll still play him in the lines even if he is chalky. Need to donate the salary somewhere!

NBA Draftkings – Main Slate: The Top Tier Value Plays

Point Guard: Jamal Murray vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.95 for 6.5x)

We have some overlapping games so I’ll try to give a different option on the main slate. Jamal Murray is finally healthy and back playing 30+ minutes. He’s only had to below value games since returning but in the ones where he exceeded value, he scored 42.8, 40.8, and 32.8 fantasy points. He gets to face a Clippers defense that allows opposing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game, plus 47.74 fantasy points. Murray is averaging 33.2 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy points per minute.

Shooting Guard: Lou Williams vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value (45.5 for 6.5x)

Now with a 2 game slate a no crazy priced players at the guard position, we can make a case for Lou Williams. He played 32 minutes on Friday after the All Star Break, scoring 35.3 fantasy points. He’s averaging 32.8 fantasy points per game and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. This will be a tough match-up for Lou Williams as the Nuggets only give up 38 fantasy points to the position, allowing shooting guards to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist. Williams has scored 52.3, 48.3, and 35.3 fantasy points in his last three games.

Small Forward: Danilo Gallinari vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (43.55 for 6.5x)

Read the previous slide as I have Gallinari on the early slate also as the top play for small forwards and will keep him on both slates, especially at his price.

Power Forward: Paul Milsap vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $6,100 – Needs to score 30.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (39.65 for 6.5x)

Paul Milsap finished the All Star break with a huge game versus the Sacramento Kings, scoring 52.3 fantasy points and then he started off the second half of the season with 45.8 fantasy points versus the Dallas Mavericks. He’s averaging 12 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 20%. The last time they faced the Clippers, Milsap finished with 8 points and 9 rebounds, nearing that double double mark. But good for him is that the Clippers are still giving up 48 fantasy points to power forwards, allowing them to average 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Milsap is at a really good price with a good match-up in front of him on this small 2 game slate.

Center: Nikola Jokic vs, Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $10,100 – Needs to score 50.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (65.65 for 6.5x)

Same as Danilo Gallinari, Jokic is still the top play on this slate also but he’ll most likely be close to 100% I believe unless people really aren’t smart and hate winning cash.

NBA Draftkings: Early Slate: The Low Tier Value Plays

With these slates being very small, the plays below can be played on any slate but if not, it will be tagged with a * to let you know.  

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Point Guard: Isaiah Thomas vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $3,800 – Needs to score 19 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.7 for 6.5x)

Call me crazy but Isaiah Thomas costing $3,800 is a great price for someone on this small 3 game slate. Yes, he has a minute restriction but even at 15 minutes he can return value which he proved on Friday, scoring 24.3 fantasy points. He basically returned 6.5x value. We have absolutely no sample size to base off of his price to say he’s a still but I would still run him just like we did with DeMarcus Cousins. He gets to face a Clippers defense that allows opposing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game, plus 47.74 fantasy points. Like I said, he’s a good play with what could be low ownership.

Shooting Guard: Landry Shamet vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $4,200 – Needs to score 21 fantasy points or more to exceed value (27.3 for 6.5x)

With it being such small slates, we need some risk plays and Landry Shamet is a very risky one.He ran 32 minutes in the first game after the All Star break but only scored 10.8 fantasy points which is hugely disappointing. He actually gets a price raise by $200 today.He actually hasn’t returned value since February 11th. This Denver Nuggets team does allow opposing shooting guards to average just 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist while giving up just 38 fantasy points. But like I said, we need some risk today to be ahead of the rest. I’ll probably be throwing IT and Shamet in at least one or two lines, hoping for that low ownership.

Small Forward: David Bertans vs. New York Knicks *Evening Slate

Salary: $3,700 – Needs to score 18.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.05 for 6.5x)

Bertans is only on the evening slate but he’s actually a pretty good one also. He has hit value in his past two games, scoring 24,8 and 23.3 fantasy points. He’s averaging 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist in 21 minutes per game. He’s also averaging .82 fantasy points per minute. He gets to face a New York Knicks game who give up the most fantasy points to small forwards with 44.11 fantasy points. They also allow opposing small forwards to average 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. It’s not like you need too much low-priced value plays tonight but David Bertans is a good one at that.

Power Forward: Mason Plumlee vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $5,000 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value (32.5 for 6.5x)

As you can tell, I’m really targeting this Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers game. Plumlee is another great play as the Clippers give up 48.96 fantasy points to power forwards, allowing them to average 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Now Plumlee has a minute issue just because he isn’t needed as often but when he’s hot, he’s hot. Out of his last five games, he has exceeded value in four of them, scoring 37.5, 30.5, 30.5, and 32.8 fantasy points. If we get some crazy before lock news with the Denver Nuggets then Mason Plumlee could be a huge play, especially at $5k.

Center: Marc Gasol vs. Orlando Magic

Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value (36.4 for 6.5x)

Now Marc Gasol hasn’t been at his best since joining the Toronto Raptors as he has yet to exceed value in any game. So with that result, Draftkings keeps lowering his price. But he gets to face a Orlando Magic team that is allowing opposing centers to average 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, plus 53.05 fantasy points. Gasol is averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game and has only hit that stat line (or at least near it) once with the Toronto Raptors. I wouldn’t choose Marc Gasol over Nikola Jokic but if you don’t want to eat the chalk, go Gasol then.

Now usually I have an extra slide of suggesting who to pair together in a lineup plus give you a sample lineup but with both slates being small and pretty one-sided, I am going to skip it today. I would suggest eating the chalk with Nikola Jokic and avoid Kawhi Leonard as his price tag is just too high and he most likely won’t return value today. Good luck and cash out!