EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/26/19

More midweek EPL!  Hopefully you haven’t had your fill of soccer DFS, because between EPL and UCL, we’re looking at a minimum of four slate per week on FanDuel!  Follow along at FantasyCPR with all of my content, starting with an EPL DFS Breakdown for Tuesday’s 4-game EPL slate.

We have an interesting 4-game slate on our hands Tuesday, which will not feature any of the big six clubs.  If that leaves you staring at some unfamiliar names wondering who you should play, you’re in the right spot.

Wolverhampton surprisingly opens as the biggest favorite on the slate in an away matchup against Huddersfield.  Vegas has set the over/under for this game at 2.0.  This could be an intriguing spot to stack the EPL-newcomers, but we’ll get to that later.

The game with the highest goal over/under on the slate is Everton @ Cardiff City at 2.5.  Neither team has really been any good defensively this season, so the high over/under here is more due to poor defense than attacking powerhouses.

The last two games on the slate Brighton @ Leicester and Burnley @ Newcastle both feature -0.5 spreads favoring the home teams and an over/under of 2.0.

From an injury perspective on this slate, there is not ton of influential news.  Kurt Zouma is suspended for Everton and Yerry Mina is a big doubt, meaning Seamus Coleman or Phil Jagielka could earn a start and be viable as a cheap defender.

There are major questions for Brighton up top as they travel to take on Leicester.  Main striker Glenn Murray’s status is in doubt with a lower leg injury, while Jurgen Locadia returned to training this week but is still not 100%.  Florin Andone’s suspension could leave Brighton shorthanded or force Murray into playing less than fully fit.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/26/19 – Forward Targets

Raul Jimenez (Wolverhampton @ Huddersfield, $11,000) – It isn’t often that I write up Jimenez, or any Wolves in general, but it’s about time I show some love.  Jimenez is in his best form of the season, hence the new price tag, with four goals in his last four EPL games.  He’s averaging 30 FDP on the dot in his last five games as well.  On Tuesday, he’ll face a Huddersfield team that has allowed the 3rd most goals so far this year.  An away matchup isn’t an ideal time to play Jimenez, but his form, his opponent, and the lack of other decent forward options on the slate will make him a popular play.

Jamie Vardy (Brighton @ Leicester, $10,500) – Vardy is arguably the best-known name on this slate, which could influence his ownership.  I’m on the fence with Vardy in this game.  The matchup is good at home against Brighton who give up 1.85 goals per game on the road.  However, Vardy and Leicester as a whole, have struggled to put the ball in the back of the net this year.  Vardy has two goals in 2019 and his lack of peripherals is always a concern.  Regardless, this is a good matchup and he’s one of the better players on the slate.

Burnley Forwards (Burnley @ Newcastle) – Both Burnley forwards, Ashley Barnes ($9,500) and Chris Wood ($8,500), are coming into this fixture with four goals in their last four games.  Barnes has been the better of the two throughout the season, hence the $1,000 price difference.  Barnes is a good candidate for one of your forward spots on this slate that lacks enticing forward options.  Even if he can’t find the net, his peripherals could be useful.

Value Forwards

Salomon Rondon (Burnley @ Newcastle, $9,000) – I fully expect Rondon to be a popular play on this slate, but for really good reason.  Rondon has directly contributed to 45.8% of Newcastle’s goals this season, that’s a league high.  Newcastle should be able to score goals against this weak Burnley team allowing 1.79 goals per game away from home, meaning Rondon is likely to be involved again.  Additionally, Rondon’s form is solid too with two goals, two assists, six shots on goal, and eight chances created in his last five EPL games.  If you’re looking for extra narrative, Rondon called this game a “cup final” stressing the importance of every game as Newcastle look to avoid relegation.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/26/19 – Midfielder Targets

Joao Moutinho (Wolverhampton @ Huddersfield, $9,500) – Much like Jimenez, this feels odd writing up an attacking player on Wolverhampton.  However, much like Jimenez, Moutinho is playing well and has a great matchup.  Moutinho is averaging 25.8 FDP over his last five EPL games, mostly thanks to his five assists and 17 chances created.  I would be all in on Wolverhampton attackers if they were at home, but they should still fare well at John Smith’s Stadium on Tuesday.

James Maddison (Brighton @ Leicester, $9,500) – Maddison has been one of my go-to midfielders this season with his safe floor.  Maddison now has nine games where he created at least four chances and has a chance to push that to double digits against Brighton.  Maddison is a critical piece of Leicester’s attack, and he should be involved early and often against Brighton.  His goal upside has been somewhat limited this year unfortunately, but his floor is as safe as any.

Pascal Gross (Brighton @ Leicester, $8,500) – After seeing Leicester’s defense get absolutely dogged by Crystal Palace at home on Saturday, I feel like Gross deserves consideration.  Five of Gross’s last six EPL games have resulted in 20+ FDP performances.  Leicester’s defense is middle-of-the-pack allowing 1.4 goals per game, and Gross’s goal upside is limited, but he should be able to get enough peripherals to approach 3x value on Tuesday.

*BONUS* I have an odd gut feeling that Richarlison ($8,500) scores on this slate.  I couldn’t tell you why, so I couldn’t write him up, but do what you want with that information.

Value Midfielders

Isaac Hayden (Burnley @ Newcastle, $7,500) – The midfielders priced under $8k on this slate are rough.  Saving money elsewhere and being able to get decent midfielders could be a key strategy on this slate.  However, are two Newcastle midfielders who could be worth a look if you need someone cheap.  First, Isaac Hayden has been in good form recently with one goal, three assists, 10 chances created, among other peripherals in his last five games.  Like I have written about previously, this is one of the better matchups for Newcastle.  Hayden should be able to play well enough to get 3x value but expecting more is unwise.

Miguel Almiron (Burnley @ Newcastle, $6,500) – Price-considered, Almiron is likely going to be the more popular/better Newcastle value midfielder on this slate.  Almiron joined Newcastle this winter from MLS’s Atlanta United.  He got his first start for Newcastle over the weekend and looked great.  He put three shots on goal and created six chances (35.6 FDP), and just barely missed a goal after he hit the post.  Burnley is another solid matchup for Almiron as he seeks to score his first EPL goal.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/26/19 – Target Defenders

Sol Bamba (Everton @ Cardiff, $7,500) – With the lack of value at the midfield position on Tuesday, paying up for a top defender is going to be difficult.  However, if you found the money, Bamba should be near the top of your list.  After a slight slump, Bamba has three straight 30+ FDP games including two goals.  Expecting a goal from a defender is always tough, but Bamba actually has 10(!) games this year where he did not score but still scored 22+ FDP (3x).  You could find Bamba with low ownership on this slate.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Ben Chilwell (Brighton @ Leicester, $6,000) – It was revealed that Chilwell has returned to training and should make it back into the starting squad on Tuesday after recovering from a training knock.  Chilwell has been somewhat inconsistent this season, but 50% of his games since January 1 have been 25+ FDP games.  The other 50% of those games he hasn’t managed 12 FDP.  Chilwell is a boom-or-bust GPP option on Tuesday.

Also like: Lucas Digne ($7,000)

Value Defenders

Bruno Ecuele Manga (Everton @ Cardiff, $5,000) – I mentioned Manga in my article for Friday, and he came through with a 16.7 FDP game (3.3x value).  Manga keeps pounding out games over 3x value with five in his last six.  Manga should make it six out of seven with what should be an open game (good environment for peripherals) with Everton.

Florian Lejeune (Burnley @ Newcastle, $4,500) – Lejeune didn’t make his first start of the year until the middle of last month, but since then, two-thirds of his games have been over 3x value (two over 4x).  Lejeune remains one of the cheapest defenders on any given slate.  His value will help you avoid having to settle for cheap midfielders.

Phil Jagielka (Everton @ Cardiff, $4,000) – This one is simple.  Kurt Zouma is suspended and Yerry Mina likely isn’t fit to play, meaning Jagielka could earn a start.  Any defender worth minimum price is worth consideration, although Jagielka has only played in two games this season making him somewhat risky.

EPL DFS Breakdown – Tuesday 2/26/19 – Goalkeepers

Rui Patricio (Wolverhampton @ Huddersfield, $4,500) – Huddersfield is far away the worst goal scoring team in the league having only scored 14 goals in 27 games (10 less than Newcastle who is second last).

On top of that they’re averaging less than 0.5 goals per game even at home.  Wolverhampton are a stiff defensive team (top 5 in goals against), and they’re in the midst of a battle to play in Europe next season.  Patricio is super cheap compared to some matchups earlier this year, and assuming Wolverhampton play to their potential, a win and clean sheet bonus are probable.

Jonas Lossl (Wolverhampton @ Huddersfield, $4,500) – This one is for those of you who aren’t feeling the Wolverhampton attackers.  Lossl put up a monster game on Saturday even after allowing two goals (he made 10 saves).  Although win and clean sheet bonuses aren’t likely, Lossl should be able to make a ton of saves again Tuesday.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown.  Check into my Twitter account (@vdray5) for updates and more information regarding soccer DFS.