Fantasy Baseball 2019: Top 100 Starting Pitcher Rankings

The starting pitcher pool is deep but the talent level drops off after a point. Here are my top 100 starting pitchers for the 2019 fantasy baseball season.

The game of baseball is changing. There are a lot more home runs, but there are also a lot more strikeouts. This has a big impact on fantasy baseball. The home runs are nice for the hitters but it leads to higher ratios for the pitchers. The strikeouts have an inverse effect on the players.

The league posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.304 WHIP last season. Compared to 2017, 4.35 and 1.342, those numbers are down a significant amount. With more hitters striking out at an outrageous rate, things are only going to get better for pitchers.

Pitcher requirements change from league to league. Some separate starting and relief pitchers. Others combine them to make universal pitching spots. I’ve been in leagues that separate the pitchers and still has one utility spot in the lineup.

Regardless, starting pitchers are important to win a fantasy baseball championship. The standard pitching categories are wins, ERA, WHIP, saves and strikeouts. Some leagues use quality starts over wins because it’s more showing of a pitcher’s skill, three or fewer earned runs in at least six innings.

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The relievers obviously contribute to saves and they help manage your ratio stats. They even add in a few strikeouts and win throughout the season. The starting pitchers’ main stats are wins (or QS) and strikeouts. The great ones give you low ratios as well.

There are some advanced stats that are more telling than others in determining a pitcher’s value. I like using K% over K/9, for example.

K/9 is misleading. If a pitcher has a strikeout, a walk, two hits in an inning, he still has a 9.0 K/9. While K% is strikeouts divided by total batters faced throughout the season.

There are a few starting pitchers still on the market. However, we have a large enough sample size that their value isn’t going to change much based on where they play in 2019.

Because of the number of starting pitchers required for a fantasy baseball league, here are my top-100 starting pitchers for the 2019 season.

100. Trevor Williams – Williams had a good season last year. He made 31 starts and posted a 3.11 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 126 strikeouts over 170.2 innings. Pittsburgh is a pitcher-friendly park but with the improvements the rest of the NL Central made, he’s going to have a tough time replicating those numbers.

Projections show his ERA rising over a run. Williams should finish with a 4.22 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 115 strikeouts and eight wins.

99. Jake Odorizzi – It’s been a couple of seasons since Odorizzi has been worth owning in fantasy leagues. He has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 4.00, WHIPs over 1.20, and hard-hit rates over 36 percent. Odorizzi did record 162 strikeouts.

I think he’ll have another season with at least a 4.00 ERA but with the lack of dangerous offenses in the AL Central, Odorizzi could strike out another 160 batters with close to 10 wins.

98. Trevor Richards – In his first season in the league, Richards posted a 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 130 strikeouts and a 4-9 record over 126.1 innings. The NL East was a tough division last season and will be even tough this season.

The Mets improved their offense, the Braves and Nationals are solid, the Phillies added some pieces and could be adding one more big one before Opening Day. It may be another bad season for the 25-year-old. I’d stay away.

97. Vince Velasquez – See what I just said about the NL East. Luckily, Velasquez won’t have to face his own team’s offense. He gets to face the Marlins instead. While he does have a high strikeout rate, Velasquez has a hard time getting out of tough situations with his 66.8 LOB percentage.

So, if someone gets on base against Velasquez, chances are they’re scoring. He’ll have 150 strikeouts with a 4.50 ERA.

96. Zach Eflin – In 24 starts, Eflin had a good season. His ERA dropped almost two runs from 6.16 to 4.36. He allowed the same number of home runs, 16, in double the innings from 2017 to 2018. He is expected to be the Phillies No. 5 starter.

With 26 starts, Eflin should have a 4.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 130 strikeouts. The offenses are a bit better in the NL East. With the new Phillies offense, Eflin should finish with 10 wins, too.

95. Mike Fiers – After two disappointing seasons in 2016 and 2017 with the Astros, Fiers bounced back nicely last year. He split time with Detroit and Oakland, posting a 3.56 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 139 strikeouts and a 12-8 record. Fiers will be the A’s ace this season.

Outside of Houston, the rest of the division is bad. His ratios will rise some due to the decline in strikeout rate. A 4.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 135 strikeouts is a good projection.

94. Michael Pineda – The Twins signed Pineda last off-season knowing he’d miss all of 2018. He is scheduled to be 100 percent as the Twins No. 4 pitcher. Pineda did not fair well in Yankee Stadium, posting ERAs over 4.00 in his last three seasons.

Moving to the AL Central should help his comeback. The offenses are sub-par (except for the Indians) and the ballparks favor pitchers. A 4.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 128 strikeouts in 22 starts are not bad in his first season back. I’d take a risk on his as my SP7.

93. Jakob Junis – Junis had a good first full season. Though, he gave up 32 home runs over 177.0 innings. The AL Central features two bad teams (Detroit and Chicago) and two good offenses (Twins and Indians). If Junis can take advantage of those bad match-ups, he’ll be a solid addition to your team. A 4.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 167 strikeouts are good for your fifth or sixth pitcher.

92. Tanner Roark – Roark has been all over the place with his performance with the Nationals. The move to Cincinnati is going to lower his value. Great American Ballpark favors hitters greatly.

He has a career 33.7 percent fly ball rate and 10.5 HR/FB rate and those numbers should increase in Cincy. The NL Central has some good offenses, too. I’d stay away from starting Roark against most teams.

91. Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez will play for the Nats in 2019. He’ll have some tough offenses to face in some hitter-friendly ballparks. Though, he has familiarity after pitching in Atlanta last season. He posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 135 strikeouts and a 7-6 record last season.

I don’t expect the ratios to be that low this season. With 136 strikeouts and nine wins, Sanchez should post a 4.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but above the league average from last season.

90. Michael Wacha – Wacha made just 15 starts for the Cardinals last season. The numbers looked good but there should be some regression as he’s expected to make 25 starts as the No. 5 pitcher. As I said with Roark, the NL Central is going to be a tough division. Wacha should finish with a 4.10 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 125 strikeouts and eight wins.

89. Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija made just 10 starts last season. He made 32 starts and pitched at least 203 innings in each of the three prior seasons. I can’t base a projection off of 10 starts. Looking at his 2017 numbers, he had an excellent 20.4 percent K-BB rate.

Pitching in San Francisco limited the number of fly balls that turned into home runs, so an ERA and WHIP close to his recent average is to be expected with 130 strikeouts.

88. Matthew Boyd – Boyd posted a 4.39 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 159 strikeouts and a 9-13 record. Based on the offensive support he has, or lack thereof, the win-loss record should be the same. Over 30 starts, Boyd should finish with a 4.50 ERA, 1.26 ERA and 155 strikeouts. He gives up too many home runs and doesn’t leave many runners on base.

87. Dereck Rodriguez – In his first season, Rodriguez posted a 2.81 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 89 strikeouts and a 6-4 record in 21 games (19 starts). The NL West is on the decline. The Diamondbacks won’t be as good. The Padres are rebuilding but the addition of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado could change that. The Rockies and Dodgers have solid offenses.

The projections have Rodriguez’s ERA going up over 1.5 runs, which may be a lot. A 3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 102 strikeouts is a more realistic line.

86. Forrest Whitley – Whitley is projected to start 2019 in Double-A but I don’t think that will last long. He finished with a 3.76 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in eight starts. The Astros signed Wade Miley and will use Josh James in the fifth spot.

As soon as Whitley is ready, he’ll be called up. Unfortunately, we don’t know when that will be. If you have the room, draft Whitley and then stash him. You don’t want to miss out on him.

85. Julio Teheran – As the longest-tenured Braves pitcher, Teheran continues to be an undervalued pitcher. He has respectable ratios, a good strikeout total and can win close to 10 games. His walk rate was up last season, three percent higher than 2017.

Though, he was able to get his strikeout rate back over 20 percent. With a home run rate over 13 percent, Teheran will have a hard time managing his ratios. He should have a 4.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 145 strikeouts in 29 starts.

84. Chase Anderson – Anderson has posted good ratio stats over the past two seasons. The negative was the huge increase in home runs allowed. He gave up a career-high 30 homers in 158.0 innings.

Though, Anderson is able to get out of trouble situations and limit the damage. The NL Central will be a tough division, so he’ll have to be on his A-game again in 2019. An ERA close to 4.00 and a WHIP around 1.30 will be what you get from Anderson.

83. Mike Minor – Minor played in a shortened 2017 season after missing the previous two seasons. In his first full season with the Rangers, he posted a 4.12 ERA, 1.121 WHIP and 12-8 record in 28 starts.

The 31-year-old can still strike out a significant number of batters with his 21.4 career strikeout rate. The AL West offenses and pitcher-friendly parks could benefit him. I’d take a shot at him late in the draft.

82. Danny Duffy – Duffy regressed big time last season, raising his ERA over one run and WHIP by 0.2. His FB and HR/FB rates went up as well. The AL Central ballparks stifle power, which makes Duffy’s numbers very surprising. I think it was a one-time thing. He’ll bring in numbers back to normal with a 4.22 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 10 wins. Duffy will also strike out 150 batters.

81. Julio Urias – Urias hasn’t had the best career since joining the Dodgers. He posted a 5.40 ERA in five starts in 2017 and made just three appearances last year. It’s hard to know what kind of pitcher Urias will be.

The good thing is that the NL West is a weak division with three of the teams looking to rebuild. Urias is a ground ball pitcher so don’t expect a lot of strikeouts.

80. Reynaldo Lopez – Lopez had a good sophomore season. I think I picked up four or five times throughout the season. He had stretches where he was a must-own and then a couple of games where you regret starting him.

As the White Sox No. 3 pitcher, Lopez won’t strike out many batters, 18.5 strikeout rate, and will give a few too many hits. An increase in his ratio stats is expected over his 175.0 innings.

79. Freddy Peralta – The third Brewers pitcher in this group, Peralta was good, not great. The rookie posted a 4.25 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 96 strikeouts and a 6-4 record in 16 games. I do expect some improvements in his second season, especially after more seasoning in Triple-A. I think the ERA will fall under 4.00 but unless he can increase his LOB rate, the WHIP will be a bit higher.

78. Jesus Luzardo – The A’s top pitching prospect is expected to start in the A’s rotation. While making just four starts in Triple-A last season, with a 7.31 ERA, the A’s front office seems confident in his skills.

He combined for 129 strikeouts and a 1.088 WHIP in 109.1 total innings. Rookies usually have a hard time adjusting to the big leagues but Luzardo is a hard thrower that keeps the ball on the ground. Stash him if you can.

77. Jhoulys Chacin – Chacin has been around for 10 years and posted his best ERA since 2015 and a career-best WHIP. In 35 starts, he finished with a 3.50 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 156 strikeouts and a 15-8 record. Unfortunately, we don’t draft for past performances. It was a good season but don’t expect it in 2019. An ERA over 4.00 and WHIP at around 1.33 is more likely. Though, that’s still not a bad stat line.

76. Dylan Bundy – Bundy is the only Orioles starting pitcher on my list. He will have a hard time getting run support. The opposing offenses will rack up hits and runs. Bundy allowed 41 home runs last season, a league-high among all qualified pitchers. The low groundball rate and high fly ball and HR/FB rates will make Bundy a very risky pick.

75. Mike Soroka – Another young pitcher, Soroka made just five starts last season. His ERA looked good but the rest of the numbers didn’t. His WHIP and low strikeout rate could lead to big trouble in the future. I do like that he posted a 44 percent ground ball rate. The Braves have a lot of young arms but I think Soroka will find his way into the Braves rotation sooner rather than later.

74. Marcus Stroman – Stroman had a down year last season. After finishing eighth in the Cy Young voting in 2017, Stroman finished 2018 with a 5.54 ERA, 1.476 WHIP and a 4-9 record in 19 starts. He is expected to pitch a full season so the ratios will come down a bit.

However, pitching in the AL East may not help all that much. A 4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 140 strikeouts in 28 starts is a good bounce-back season.

73. Sonny Gray – While the Yankees used Gray in the bullpen for the majority of last season, he will be back in the rotation for the Reds. There may not be much difference going from Yankee Stadium to Great American Ballpark. His ERA will be around 4.00 with a 1.32 WHIP and 140 strikeouts. I think Gray is a good option for a rebound season in Cincinnati.

72. Marco Gonzales – Gonzales posted a good stat line in 2018. He had a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 145 strikeouts with a 13-9 record. T-Mobile Park is in the middle for home runs according to ESPN Park Factors, though three of the other AL West parks are hitter-friendly. I think his ERA will go up a little while maintaining 1.26 WHIP and 148 strikeouts.

71. Luke Weaver – Weaver will play in Arizona for the foreseeable future as a part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade. He had an ERA close to 5.00 last season so the move to Chase Field should help his value.

Did you guys know they installed a humidor in Chase Field? No? Well, they did. It had a big impact on home runs allowed in Arizona. His ERA should drop to about 4.30 with a 1.32 WHIP and 125 strikeouts.

70. Kyle Gibson – At 30 years old, Gibson had a good season. He finished with a 3.62 ERA, 1.302 WHIP and 179 strikeouts over 196.2 innings. The ERA, strikeouts and innings were all career highs. There will be some regression for Gibson.

The AL Central has one good offense, two bad ones and one in the middle. He should finish with a 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and another 175 strikeouts with 12 wins.

69. Michael Fulmer – Fulmer regressed on all fronts last season. His ERA, WHIP, ground ball and HR/FB rate, among other stats, all rose last season. He finished with just three wins. I don’t think it’ll be that low again but he’ll have a hard time getting to 10 with the Tigers offense and bullpen. His ratios should normalize to his career average while he records 150 strikeouts.

68. Jimmy Nelson – Nelson did not throw a single pitch in 2018 as he recovered from a shoulder injury. After a setback, he should be ready to pitch in Spring Training. Three projections show Nelson making just 19 starts while the fourth said 22. H

e’ll have a 4.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 115 strikeouts. The Brewers offense will support him in most of his starts, giving him a chance to win at least 10 games.

67. Carlos Rodon – In his fourth season, Rodon posted a career high in ERA but his WHIP dropped. In 120.2 innings, Rodon had a 17.6 strikeout rate and 10.8 walk rate. His fly ball rate rose almost 10 percent last season. In 28 projected starts, Rodon will finish with a 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 160 strikeouts and nine wins. If your pitching staff has good ratios, Rodon’s strikeouts give him some value.

66. Steven Matz – Matz had a really good season last year. He made a career-high 30 starts and finished with a 3.97 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 152 strikeouts and 5-11 record. The wins should go up with the new Mets offense.

Pitching against the Phillies, Braves and Nationals will affect his ratios in a negative way. Though, the 20-plus percent strikeout rate and under 10 percent walk rate could limit the damage. He could be the Mets third-best pitcher at the end of the season.

65. Sean Newcomb – Newcomb had a great second season last year. In 30 starts, he posted a 3.90 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 160 strikeouts and 12-9 record. Despite a high HR/FB and walk rates, Newcomb was able to limit the damage.

The NL East got better this off-season, which will lead to rising ratios. A 4.15 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with 168 strikeouts and 11 wins are what you should expect.

64. Alex Reyes – The Cardinals top pitching prospect has dealt with two major injuries throughout his short career. He missed 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. After his lone appearance in 2018, Reyes missed the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to reattach a tendon in his right lat.

Reyes is on schedule to pitch during Spring Training. He could push for a rotation spot and one could be available if Carlos Martinez continues to have issues. I would take a dart throw on Reyes in hopes he gets back to his 2016 self.

63. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove had a nice rebound season with Pittsburgh last season. He lowered his ratio stats in 19 starts. Though, he did see some regression in his ground ball and LOB percentages.

I think in a full season worth of starts, his ERA and WHIP should stay around the same. He’ll have an increase in strikeouts, obviously. Musgrove needs to be able to get out of tough situations and he’ll finish higher on this list.

62. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi is the newest pitcher to come over from Japan in hopes of becoming a household name in the MLB. In eight seasons, he posted a 2.81 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 925 strikeouts, 381 walks and a 74-48 record over 1035.1 innings. He’s had a great career in Japan.

However, with that many innings already under his belt and the difference in play in the MLB, he may face some struggles. The added wear and tear leads to missed time due to injury. I like his makeup but I don’t have high hopes for his fantasy value this season.

61. Zack Godley – Godley saw all of his numbers rise last season, in a good and bad way. His ratios ballooned but his strikeouts and wins went up as well. Most of his struggles came on the road, posting a 5.46 ERA away from Chase Field. I think we’ll see some regression to the mean with his ratios, something like a 4.15 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 170 strikeouts and 10 wins.

60. Joey Lucchesi – Lucchesi had a good run in the minors, albeit for one bad Triple-A start. He had a good rookie season. The ratios will work themselves out if he fixes the other numbers. The 32.6 percent fly ball rate, 20.4 HR/FB rate and 40.6 percent hard-hit rate led to the high ratios. Lucchesi should see a decline in his ERA in his second season. He’d make a good SP5.

59. Kevin Gausman – The move to Atlanta will benefit Gausman’s value. In 10 starts with the Braves, Gausman posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and a 5-3 record.

He will have to face the Nationals, Phillies and Mets and pitch in Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park in some games. Even with those negatives, Gausman is good for a 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 145 strikeouts.

58. Tyler Skaggs – Outside of the Astros, there isn’t a full offense in the AL West that I’d be afraid of. There are certain hitters that could do damage, of course, but the team as a whole won’t hurt. Skaggs improved last season over 24 starts.

He lowered his ratios while increasing his strikeout rate. He induced more ground balls and fewer fly balls. If he makes 28 starts, I wouldn’t be surprised if he has an ERA under 4.00 with 150 strikeouts.

57. Ross Stripling – The Dodgers have a lot of starting pitchers. As a result, Stripling will start the season in Triple-A. Though, injuries are almost as sure of a thing as death and taxes. So, Stripling should find his way into the Dodgers rotation at some point.

If, and when, he gets called up, he should finish with a 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 80 strikeouts. I wouldn’t waste a pick on him. He’s a streaming option as of now.

56. Hyun-jin Ryu – The second Dodgers pitcher in this group. Ryu pitched in just 15 games but looked great in the process. He posted a 1.97 ERA, 1.008 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 82.1 innings. Unfortunately, we won’t see a repeat of those numbers this season.

With more starts, the ratios are going to go up. The Rockies and Padres offenses are going to be dangerous but the Giants and Diamondbacks aren’t as good. Ryu will post a 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 120 strikeouts. Not a bad line at all.

55. Jake Arrieta – Arrieta had a good first season in Philadelphia. It wasn’t as good as his last couple of years in Chicago but he was still valuable in fantasy baseball. He had an increase in his ground ball rate while his strikeout rate dropped four percent.

His ERA will hover around 4.00 with Citizens Bank Park being his home park. A 1.22 WHIP and 160 strikeouts still make him worth drafting as a low-end SP4. Just watch out for his knee.

54. Kyle Freeland – Freeland was amazing last season, finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. He posted a 2.85 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 173 strikeouts and a 17-7 record in 33 starts. Freeland posted better numbers at home in Coors Field than on the road. He gave up more fly balls last season but not many of them turned into home runs.

I think some regression to the ratios is expected but nothing too crazy. A 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 165 strikeouts with 12 wins are still good. Just don’t draft him expecting last year’s numbers.

53. Alex Wood – Wood will pitch in Cincinnati in 2019 as a part of the Yasiel Puig deal. After pitching well in 2018, he will struggle this season. While he is a heavy ground ball pitcher, career 49.5 percent, Wood gives up a lot of medium and hard contact.

Pitching in Cincinnati against the great offenses in the NL Central will hurt his value. A 4.05 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 128 strikeouts are good projections for the 28-year-old.

52. Josh James – James is the prospect no one is talking about. Despite the fact that he’s going to be 26 years old, he is a hard thrower. He recorded 29 strikeouts in 23.0 innings with the Astros last season. He had 498 strikeouts in 456.2 minor-league innings.

James is slotted as the No. 5 starter for Houston. With a full season coming up, he should have a 3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 150 strikeouts. Plus, he’ll win close to 10 games.

51. Jon Lester – Lester rebounded nicely after posting a 4.33 ERA in 2017, the first time it was that high since 2012. His strand rate was up but the rest of the numbers were down. He allowed more fly balls and line drives, though his HR/FB rate dropped.

It’s hard to know who the real Lester is. The projections see him going back to his 2017 self. I think he’ll be in between his 2017 and 2018 performances with a 3.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 170 strikeouts and 13 wins.

50. Kenta Maeda – Maeda made 20 starts and 19 relief appearances, posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.261 WHIP along the way. He is projected to be the Dodgers No. 5 starter, so 26 to 28 starts is the likely ceiling. He has good swing-and-miss stuff, evident by his 28.8 strikeout rate last season. As a back-end piece, a 3.78 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 142 strikeouts will help any owner. Just don’t be surprised if he misses time.

49. Jon Gray – The second Rockies pitcher in this group. Unfortunately, Gray did not have the same success Freeland did last season. He had a 5.15 ERA and 1.346 WHIP. He struggled more away from Coors Field but not by much.

Gray allowed too many hard hits and home runs, 36.1 percent and 27, respectively. I think his ERA will come down but, then again, I wouldn’t project him for another 5.00 ERA season. Something like a 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 160 strikeouts is more likely.

48. Andrew Heaney – In his first full season, Heaney was serviceable. He posted a 4.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 180 strikeouts in 30 starts. I think if he can bring his fly ball rate down a few more points, he’ll have a great season.

Heaney already has a good command of his pitches, 18.0 K-BB rate. The HR/FB rate just needs to be below 12 percent. With that, though, will be a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 177 strikeouts.

47. Tyler Glasnow – Not sure if I would prefer Glasnow pitching in Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay. Both divisions feature good offenses and hitter-friendly parks. Though, Tropicana Field ranked just a few spots higher than PNC Park in terms of home runs. He posted a 4.20 ERA in 11 starts with the Rays.

Projections favor the move, and I do too. He can beat up on the Blue Jays and Orioles on his way to a 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 160 strikeouts. His high walk and HR/FB rates may get him into trouble, though.

46. Rick Porcello – Porcello has not looked good since his 2016 Cy Young-winning season. He has back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 4.20. Though, the rest of the numbers are not bad. Porcello had a 1.176 WHIP, 190 strikeouts and 17 wins last season.

He induced more ground balls and fewer home runs as well. He’s a lock for a 4.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 strikeouts and 13 wins. That ERA would be just over the league average from last season.

45. Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi had a good second half of the 2018 season with the Red Sox. In 12 games, he had a 3.33 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 48 strikeouts and a 3-3 record. He is very familiar with the AL East, spending the last three seasons in the division.

With a full season in Boston, Eovaldi should have a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 138 strikeouts and 11 wins. The ratios could be an issue, especially with the dangerous bats the Yankees and Rays (yes, Rays) have in their lineup.

44. Jose Quintana – Quintana regressed after a full season with the Cubs. He posted an ERA over 4.00 again. His WHIP, strikeout rate, and soft-hit rate all went in the wrong direction. So why have him ranked in the top 50?

Because he’ll bounce back in a good way. Despite the improvements in the NL Central, his ERA will fall under 3.95 and, with the improvement to his walk rate, his WHIP will drop as well.

43. Shane Bieber – Bieber did not have a good first season in the majors. But, looking at his minor-league numbers, I think he’ll be in line for a good sophomore season. In his eight Triple-A starts last season, he posted a 55.0 ground ball rate, 81.8 LOB rate and 26.7 percent strikeout rate.

The AL Central features three offenses he can take advantage of. He’ll have a 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 140 strikeouts. He’s a sleeper pick for me.

42. J.A. Happ – Happ is back with the Yankees for 2019. He was really good in his 11 starts with the team last year. Though, a full season of facing the Red Sox and Rays while traveling to some other hitter-friendly parks could result in some increased numbers, especially compared to his second half. Though, I’ll take a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 170 strikeouts from Happ.

41. Eduardo Rodriguez – Rodriguez improved greatly last season. His strikeout and walk rates saw positive regression. He induced more ground balls, fewer hard-hit balls and home runs. That will come in handy when facing the Yankees, Rays and other power-hitting teams. I think he’ll finish as the second-best pitcher in the Red Sox rotation. If you can draft him this late, you’ll get great value.

40. Cole Hamels – The 13-year veteran had a good second half with the Cubs. He won’t reach 200 innings but a 3.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 171 strikeouts over 175.0 innings isn’t a bad season.

Hamels improved his walk and strikeout rates. He gave up almost four times as many home runs in Texas than in Chicago, 23 to 6. I’ve talked about the NL Central enough, but it’s an important factor for fantasy.

39. Dallas Keuchel – Pitchers and catchers have reported but Keuchel still doesn’t have a team. He’s been loosely linked to the Reds and Phillies among other teams. I’d rather he not go to either of those teams. They have hitter-friendly parks and he would have to face some stacked offenses. I know the Padres are the hot topic, but he’d be a good fit there.

38. Yu Darvish – Darvish has seen a sharp decline in his performance over the last couple of seasons. His strikeout rate was under 30 percent for two straight seasons and his walk rate was over 11 percent for the first time since his rookie year.

I don’t think he’ll have another 4.95 ERA, so you won’t have to worry about that. A 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 155 strikeouts season is not prime Darvish but it’s better than the 2018 version.

37. Rich Hill – The journeyman was solid in 24 starts last season. He posted a 3.66 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 150 strikeouts and an 11-5 record. It’s hard to see it getting any worse for Hill. He’s been reliable over the last three seasons.

Entering his age-39 season, Hill will be the Dodgers No. 4 starter. He should get another 11 wins as he posts a 3.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 165 more strikeouts. The downside is that he’s giving up more fly balls which have turned into more home runs.

36. Nick Pivetta – Pivetta improved in 2018, but that’s not saying much after posting a 6.07 ERA in 2017. The other numbers that led to his ratio stats improving are what I’m looking at.

He allowed fewer fly balls and home runs while keeping the ball on the ground more. He used his curve-ball seven percent more last season. The off-speed stuff will lead to more ground balls and fewer runs. A win-win.

35. Carlos Martinez – Martinez entered Spring Training with a shoulder injury. It is unknown if he’ll be ready for Opening Day. Three of the four projections have him only making 19 starts. If he is supposed to miss extended time, then drop him in your rankings. The Cardinals could also use him in the bullpen to build back arm strength. It’s a situation worth monitoring all spring.

34. Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks was able to pitch a full season last year. He posted a 3.44 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 161 strikeouts and a 14-11 record in 199.0 innings. He allowed more fly balls and line drivers. His strikeout and walk rates both dropped. Hendricks relies on his defense to get batters out, so 165 strikeouts is the ceiling. He’ll have a 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP along the way.

33. Chris Archer – I like the move to Pittsburgh, even though his numbers were roughly the same. He doesn’t have to face Boston and New York. Though, facing Milwaukee, Chicago, St. Louis and Cincinnati may not be much better.

Archer had a better strikeout rate with the Pirates. His fly ball and HR/FB rates went up as well. PNC Park is a pitcher’s park, so he’ll have to limit his damage on the road.

32. Robbie Ray – Ray struggles last season, seeing increases in his home run rate and a lowered ground ball rate. Despite Chase Field favoring pitchers, Ray had a 26.8 HR/FB rate at home and a 7.5 percent rate on the road.

While other pitchers performed better in Chase Field, Ray went the opposite direction. I think the ERA and WHIP will improve but he has to work on keeping the ball on the ground in order for that to happen.

31. Luis Castillo – Castillo regressed after a full season of starts. His ground ball rate dropped 13 percent, line drive rate went up nine percent and fly ball rate went up 3.4 percent. Castillo allowed batters to make more hard contact.

His ERA will drop some but it will still be above 4.00 this season. That with 173 strikeouts and a 1.22 WHIP makes for a decent pitcher but not one your rushing to add to your team.

30. Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka has seen a drop in innings over the past three seasons. He was able to lower his ERA by a run last season. Tanaka’s ground ball rate dropped two percent while his fly ball rate went up a little. Though, he was able to limit the number of home runs allowed. Over his projected 26 starts this season, Tanaka should pitch to a 3.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 155 strikeouts.

29. Charlie Morton – Now a member of the Rays, Morton will see regression in some of his numbers. The AL East has some hitter-friendly parks, similar to the AL West. The difference is that he won’t have as many bad offenses to take advantage of.

His ERA will be around 3.50 with a 1.22 WHIP and 170 strikeouts. Let’s just hope the home runs he allowed are all solo shots and not with men on base. Though, looking at his LOB percentage, that may not be the case.

28. Miles Mikolas – Mikolas had a great first season back in the majors. In 32 starts, he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 146 strikeouts and an 18-4 record. I can’t compare his 2018 season to his previous seasons in the majors. He’s a completely different pitcher. I think we’ll see an ERA increase of a half run. A 3.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 155 strikeouts is still a good season. The almost 50 percent ground ball rate will help.

27. Zack Wheeler – Wheeler came back in 2017 after missing all of 2015 and 2016. Though, it was 2018 that saw Wheeler come back to form. He had a 3.31 ERA, 1.124 WHIP and 179 strikeouts in 32 starts.

His ratios will go up again this season unless we see a huge decline in his fly ball rate and more pitches being hit on the ground. Wheeler added a split-finger fastball to his repertoire, which may help.

26. Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner made just 17 and 21 starts in his last two seasons. He struck out less than 20 percent of batters faced for the first time since 2010. His fly ball and HR/FB rates dropped as well. Bumgarner is still just 28 years old, so we should still have a couple of more good seasons left.

Unfortunately, the projections don’t see it that way. Four of the five have him with a 3.77 ERA or worse. I don’t see it getting that high. A line close to 3.38 ERA/1.23 WHIP/175 Ks is more what you should expect.

25. German Marquez – Marquez is another Rockies pitcher who had a successful 2018 season. In 33 starts, he had a 3.77 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 230 strikeouts and a 14-11 record. However, unlike his teammates, Marquez was better on the road than at home.

Even with the disparity between his splits, Marquez is still a solid pitcher with a high strikeout rate and his reduced fly ball rate. He should post a 3.85 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 210 strikeouts.

24. David Price – Price has spent the majority of his career in the AL East. While he is far from his Cy Young days, Price is still effective. He posted a 2.98 ERA at home with 95 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP. If he can stay healthy, Price should get close to 200 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 190 strikeouts. He’ll have to lower his fly ball rate in order to post those numbers.

23. Mike Foltynewicz – Foltynewicz had the best season of his career last year. He posted a 2.85 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 203 strikeouts and a 13-10 record. Folty had a better ERA on the road than at home but he had more strikeouts at SunTrust Park.

None of the projections seem to buy that this is the new Foltynewicz. They are projecting an ERA increase of a run or more this season. The increase is likely due to a big rise in his hard-hit rate.

22. Jose Berrios – Berrios maintained roughly the same ERA with a drop in WHIP and more strikeouts. He induced more ground balls but also gave up more home runs despite a two-percent drop in his fly ball rate.

Berrios also gave up a career-high 34.2 hard-hit rate. Outside of Cleveland, the rest of the AL Central shouldn’t care an opposing pitcher. His ERA should drop to about 3.65 with a 1.18 WHIP and 205 strikeouts.

21. Mike Clevinger – The Indians do a great job finding starting pitchers. There are three of Clevinger’s teammates still to come in the rankings. Luckily, his weird nipple comments don’t affect his fantasy value.

He threw his slider a bit more, which likely resulted in the one-percent increase in his ground ball rate and three-percent drop in his fly ball rate. The main projection sites don’t think Clevinger will repeat anything close to his 2018 season. I think a 3.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 188 strikeouts are good projections.

20. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty posted a great season at just 22 years old. In 28 starts, he had a 3.34 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, 182 strikeouts and an 8-9 record. Looking at his 2017 minor league numbers, that’s about what we should have expected in his first full season.

As batters get to know his tendencies, the numbers will regress. Though, with a near-50 percent ground ball rate, it shouldn’t be that bad. Something like a 3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 185 strikeouts is good as a low-end SP2.

19. Jameson Taillon – Taillon made 30-plus starts for the first time in his career last season. He posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 179 strikeouts and a 14-10 record. Despite the increase to a number of stats, Taillon did not let many batters on base to incur damage. If he can keep his LOB percentage near 80 percent, Taillon should post a 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 178 strikeouts and another 12 wins.

18. Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2014. He got close in 2017 with 28 but dropped to 22 last year. His ERA went up over a run to 3.74. Strasburg gave up more hard hits and home runs last year than the majority of his career.

His strikeout and walk rates were good enough to help lower his WHIP. You can’t project Strasburg for more than 28 starts. He’ll have a 3.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 195 strikeouts in the process.

17. Zack Greinke – Greinke had one bad season in 2016 but has since rebounded with back-to-back good seasons. Over 207.2 innings, he had a 3.21 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 199 strikeouts and a 15-11 record. Greinke benefited from the humidor in Chase Field based on his home/road splits.

His ERA was separated by over a run. He gave up more home runs even with a lowered fly ball rate. Greinke will be reliable at home and hit-or-miss on the road.

16. Patrick Corbin – Corbin posted the best season of his career and was handsomely rewarded for it. His 3.15 ERA, 1.050 WHIP and 246 strikeouts were all career highs. Corbin pitched better on the road than at home. With Nationals Park and Citizens Bank Park both favoring hitters, that could play to his strengths.

He’s kept his fly ball rate under 30 percent with a near-50 percent ground ball rate over the last four seasons. A 3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 210 strikeouts is a solid projection.

15. James Paxton – Paxton will join the Yankees for the 2019 season and beyond. He had one season with an ERA under 3.00 in 2017. In 28 starts last year, he allowed 23 home runs, almost triple the amount from the year before.

His ground ball and fly ball rates have regressed over the past couple of seasons. Moving to a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium may not be the best for his fantasy value. He’ll post another 3.50 ERA season with close to 200 strikeouts.

14. Walker Buehler – The Dodgers continue to develop good starting pitching. Buehler is yet another example. In his rookie season, he posted a 2.62 ERA, 0.961 WHIP, 151 strikeouts and an 8-5 record.

He hasn’t spent too much time at one single level of the minors but has looked good along the way. Buehler will continue his success at becoming the Dodgers best pitcher. He’s someone you’ll want to have at your No. 2 pitcher.

13. Noah Syndergaard – Syndergaard has missed some time over the last two seasons. He was able to make 25 starts last year. Syndergaard has been consistent with his batted ball profile, maintaining a 50 percent ground ball rate and 27 percent fly ball rate.

His strikeout rate was a bit down last season. If Syndergaard can stay healthy, at least. 28 starts, then he should have a 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 180 strikeouts.

12. Clayton Kershaw – Are we seeing the decline of Kershaw? Because of his numerous back injuries, Kershaw hasn’t made 30 starts or 180 innings in three straight seasons. His ratios are still solid but he may not give you a full season. He’ll get you a good amount of wins as well. I’ll take 80 percent of Kershaw over some of these other pitchers.

11. Trevor Bauer – The season Bauer had last year came out of nowhere. He had a 4.30 ERA and 1.340 WHIP between 2014 and 2017. In 175.1 innings, Bauer recorded 221 strikeouts with a 2.21 ERA and 1.089 WHIP. With a full season ahead of him, he could get close to 275 strikeouts.

His batted ball profile has slowly declined over the last three seasons, seeing regression between his ground ball and fly ball rates. Regardless, he’ll have a 3.30 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

10. Luis Severino – The Yankees potential Cy Young winner declined in performance last year. He allowed more batters to get on base with fewer strikeouts in the same number of innings. Severino lost over nine percent on his ground ball rate and a seven-percent rise in his hard-hit rate. Though, 19 wins is still impressive.

He should get his ERA back on track to the low 3’s with a 1.11 WHIP and 230 strikeouts. He’s not a top-five pitcher is close to getting there.

9. Carlos Carrasco – The fourth of the five Indians starters, Carrasco had another great season. He recorded 17 wins with a 3.38 ERA, 1.125 WHIP and 231 strikeouts. The surprising thing was that his ERA and WHIP stayed relatively close to his career average while his hard-hit rate went up nine percent.

Batters were not hitting as many home runs. There is no guesswork involved when drafting Carrasco. You know what you’re getting and that’s something many pitchers can’t provide you.

8. Blake Snell – Snell won the AL Cy Young and he had no competition. He posted a 1.89 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 221 strikeouts and a 21-5 record. I would be foolish to project a season anything close to that.

With the power-hitting Red Sox and Yankees and the hitter-friendly confines Rogers Centre and Camden Yards, he will see an increase to his ratios. That doesn’t mean Snell won’t be a productive part of your fantasy team.

7. Aaron Nola – Nola was a Cy Young contender all season. He posted a career-best in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and wins. Nola had a ridiculous 82.5 percent LOB rate and 50.6 ground ball rate. He has a good mix of pitches, using no one pitch more than 36 percent of the time last season.

With all that, I think his ratios will still go up. The division is tough and his home park is hitter friendly. I still wouldn’t mind having him on my team.

6. Gerrit Cole – Cole had a great season in 2015 but fell off after that until last season, his first with the Astros. He posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.033 WHIP and 276 strikeouts.

While hs struggled in the second half, 3.50 ERA, he had better ground ball and fly ball rates and his walk rate declined as well. With the lack of top offenses in the AL West, Cole will be just fine. He’ll have a 3.30 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 240 strikeouts.

Corey Kluber has been a fantasy ace since becoming a full-time starter in 2014. He averaged a 2.85 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, over 1,200 strikeouts and at least 18 wins in four of the last five seasons. With a weak AL Central and injury-free future, he’s a lock to be an ace again.

Kluber logged at least 203.0 innings and 222 strikeouts in each season since 2014. He’s maintained a 44 percent ground ball rate in each of the last three seasons. Though, the 13 percent HR/FB rate and 36.6 percent hard-hit rate have my eyebrows raised a bit.

The increase in his cut fastball and decline in curveball could have been reason for his eight-percent drop in his strikeout rate from 2017 to 2018. Though, 222 strikeouts were good for 10th among all starting pitchers.

The AL Central parks are middle-of-the-road parks in terms of home runs. Progressive Field was ranked the highest at 14th while Comerica Park was the lowest at 24th. That plays into Kluber’s strengths according to his batted ball profile.

The soon-to-be 33-year-old doesn’t have a lot of question marks. The only thing could be his age. Then again, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. He’s worth a top-20 pick in all league formats.

Before arriving in Houston, Justin Verlander was already a stud pitcher. He won AL Rookie of the Year in 2006 and MVP and Cy Young in 2011. Fast forward seven seasons and Verlander is still one of the best in the game. Don’t let his age could your judgment of the Astros’ ace.

In 34 starts, Verlander posted a 2.52 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, 290 strikeouts and a 16-9 record. His strikeouts were second-most in the league. He posted career-bests in both strikeout and walk rates, 34.8 and 4.4 respectively.

Despite allowing a ridiculous 51.4 fly ball rate, Verlander gave up an 11.1 HR/FB rate or 28 total home runs. He maintained a 95.1 MPH fastball and mixed it with a slider and curve-ball. He threw a cutter and change-up from time to time.

Like the AL Central, the AL West got weaker over the last season. The Mariners traded away many of their pieces. The A’s don’t seem to have the same excitement. The Angels have Mike Trout and that’s about it. The Rangers lost Adrian Beltre, so there isn’t a lot of to be afraid of there.

Verlander should post a 3.10 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 260 strikeouts and another 15 wins. He’s going to be drafted in the second round, so you’ll to pay if you want him.

Chris Sale fell below 30 starts for the first time since 2014. Despite that, he posted a career-best 2.11 ERA and 0.861 WHIP. He also struck out 237 batters and won 12 games. I do think there are some health concerns but he’s still worth drafting as your top pitcher.

Sale did not have a complete game for the first time since 2011. While they are rare, I think that plays into how healthy a pitcher is. Yes, he did pitch a full nine innings in a game but that game went to 12 innings. So, semantics, I guess.

Sale posted a career-high 38.4 strikeout rate with a 5.5 walk rate. He was able to have batters put the ball on the ground more in 2018. Batters were making softer contact against Sale, which helped give him a 9.3 HR/FB rate.

With some of the best offenses in the American League and typical regression, Sale could be in line for increases in his ratios. Then again, a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP are still SP1 worthy.

If he can get a full season under his arm, then we could see two pitchers with at least 300 strikeouts.

Jacob deGrom was the best pitcher in baseball last season. He had a 1.70 ERA, 0.912 WHIP, 269 strikeouts and a 10-9 win. The lack of wins is due to a poor offense. deGrom did everything he could to give the Mets a fighting chance.

He left almost everyone who got on base there at the end of an inning with an 82.0 LOB rate. His 32 percent strikeout rate was a career-high and he managed to pair that with a 5.5 percent walk rate.

deGrom improved his ground ball, fly ball, HR/FB, soft hit and hard hit rates last season. He was able to throw his fastball 96 MPH while mixing in some nasty off-speed stuff.

However, fantasy owners must remember that deGrom finished with a 3.53 ERA in 2017. With the Phillies, Nationals and Braves owning powerful offenses and Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park favoring hitters, it’ll be hard for deGrom to post those numbers again.

However, a 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 250 strikeouts still make deGrom a fantasy ace and someone you want leading your pitching staff.

Who else was it going to be?

Max Scherzer has been the best pitcher in the National League three times, maybe four if you count last season. He is a lock for 18 wins, 220 innings and close to 300 strikeouts every season. Scherzer has a 0.975 WHIP over the last six seasons. Insane.

He has left more than 80 percent of batters on base over the last three seasons. His strikeout rate has gone up in each of the last four seasons while lowering his walk rate.

Scherzer gives up a lot of fly balls, posting a fly ball rate over 45 percent in each of the last four seasons. Though, despite Nationals Park favoring hitters, his HR/FB rate dropped to under 10 percent.

Scherzer doesn’t mess around on the mound. He threw his fastball just over 50 percent of the time. He uses his slider and change-up to keep the batters honest.

If all the top hitters are gone, don’t second guess in taking Scherzer in the first round. He’s the only one worth it. It’s hard to project him for anything under a 2.80 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 285 strikeouts.

The starting pitching pool has players of every type. If you want low ratios, high strikeouts, innings eaters, they are there throughout the draft. The skill is in finding the right combination and making a successful pitching staff.

The next and final position to be ranked is relief pitching. Thanks for the support along the way.