Fantasy Basketball: The Top Salary Value Plays – Go Russy or Kyrie
By Shaun Evans
Fantasy Basketball – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any Fantasy Basketball slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.
We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag.
We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.
This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.
Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 3 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Fantasy Basketball – DraftKings: The Top Tier Plays
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $11,000 – Needs to score 55 fantasy points or more to exceed value (71.5 for 6.5x)
Look, I know we discussed on every other slate if we should fade Westbrook for Paul George but no one, besides James Harden, has kept up the consistency like Westbrook. James Harden actually exceeds the $11k price tag but Westbrook does not, at least on this small 3 game slate.
Westbrook has hit value 10+ straight games, at least the 5x value mark but also the 6.5x value which is what we need. He’s now facing the Denver Nuggets tonight who allow opposing point guards to reach 45 fantasy points per game.
In their last match-up, Westbrook recorded 13 points, 14 rebounds, and 8 assist. He’s averaging 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assist per game versus the Nuggets in 37 games also. He is pricey but Westbrook is the guy to build around tonight.
Shooting Guard: Evan Fournier vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value (37.7 for 6.5x)
We do not have a pretty depth of shooting guards tonight which makes this a little bit difficult. Fournier didn’t have the best outing in their previous match-up versus the Knicks but the Knicks are obviously tanking for Zion, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Durant.
You know, lose really badly to make top stars want to join your team? Fournier is averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game and .84 fantasy points per minute. The Knicks are also giving up the second most fantasy points to shooting guards, allowing them to average 44.24 fantasy points. Fournier has had one good showing and one bad showing since the start of the second half with 33.75 and 17.75 fantasy points.
Given the depth we have and the current state of the New York Knicks, Evan Fournier gets the green light.
Small Forward: Paul George vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $10,400 – Needs to score 52 fantasy points or more to exceed value (67.6 for 6.5x)
Now Saturday’s down game for Paul George could be completely blamed on the overtime game versus the Utah Jazz and then facing the fast paced Sacramento Kings. PG13 is averaging 51.7 fantasy points per game and 1.43 fantasy points per minute.
George dropped 32 points with 5 rebounds and 2 assist in the first match-up versus the Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets also allow opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, plus 41.80 fantasy points. We most likely won’t get the value again to play both, Westbrook and George, but when it comes down to who to spend the money on first, Westbrook is that guy as he has been a returning value machine.
Power Forward: Aaron Gordon vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value (41.6 for 6.5x)
Once again, Aaron Gordon is on the slate and he’s on my write up. Let us try this again. He had a horrible outing versus the Toronto Raptors, scoring just 23.75 fantasy points but now he gets to face the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are allowing opposing power forwards to average 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assist, plus 50.18 fantasy points per game. Gordon only averages 33 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy points per minute.
There is downside to playing Gordon as he has trouble returning value but he is facing the struggling New York Knicks, which should be no issue for him to return 5x value at least.
Center: Nikola Jokic vs. Oklahom City Thunder
Salary: $10,000 – Needs to score 50 fantasy points or more to exceed value (65 for 6.5x)
I feel as if the Center position is stacked tonight with Jokic, Vucevic, and even Al Horford but we’ll get to him later on. Jokic gets to face the Thunder who have big men, Steven Adams and Nerloen Noels, guarding him. He should easily eat tonight.
The Thunder are giving up 52.88 fantasy points per game and 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assist. Jokic almost recorded a triple double in the first meeting with 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assist. He’s averaging 50.1 fantasy points per game and 1.61 fantasy points per minute.
Jokic returned value in his second game after the All Star break and barely missed it by .75 fantasy points in the first game back. If we get value, pair Jokic and Westbrook together in the same line-up.
Fantasy Basketball – FanDuel: The Top Tier Plays
Point Guard: Kyrie Irving vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $9,700 – Needs to score 48.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (63.05 for 6.5x)
Kyrie Irving may not give a damn about where he is going or what he is doing but he sure knows how to dominate. He barely missed value in a fluke game to start the second half of the season but on Friday, he recorded 62 fantasy points versus the Chicago Bulls.
Now he gets a tough match-up versus the Toronto Raptors but they are allowing opposing point guards to average 21 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds, plus 43.82 fantasy points.
Irving dominated with a huge double double against the Raptors on January 16th, scoring 27 points and 18 assist. Especially if Kawhi Leonard is out once again, Irving should be able to dominate with the major defensive weapon off of the court.
Shooting Guard: Evan Fournier vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $6,000 – Needs to score 30 fantasy points or more to exceed value (39 for 6.5x)
We are sticking with Fournier as the top shooting guard play for tonight’s slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. (Read previous slide for stats vs. Knicks)
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $9,600 – Needs to score 48 fantasy points or more to exceed value (62.4 for 6.5x)
This rides on the “Game Time Decision” tag of Kawhi Leonard as the Toronto Raptors have been very careful with him all season long. Now if he does play, he may make for a good play but does have a hefty price tag of $9,600.
In the last match up versus the Boston Celtics, Leonard recorded 33 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist. But Boston is a very good defensive team as they allow opposing small forwards to average just 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 39.24 fantasy points.
Leonard is averaging 45.51 fantasy points a game and 1.33 fantasy points per minute. Besides his tag, I would prioritize Kawhi Leonard after Kyrie Irving on FanDuel tonight.
Power Forward: Paul Milsap vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $8,400 – Needs to score 42 fantasy points or more to exceed value (54.6 for 6.5x)
Paul Milsap has been on a huge run lately and with it being a small slate once again, he’ll probably end up a little bit chalky but I’m okay with that. Milsap has scored 46.6 and 52.6 fantasy points to start the second half of the season.
He’s also averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute and 29 fantasy points per game. He gets to face a Oklahoma City Thunder defense that allows opposing power forwards to average 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 49.11 fantasy points per game.
Milsap wasn’t much of a factor in the match-up on November 24th, but he should be easily tonight. He’s one of my favorite plays overall on both slates tonight.
Center: Nikola Vucevic vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $10,200 – Needs to score 51 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.3 for 6.5x)
We’re running Nikola Jokic on DraftKings but his price is a little too high on FanDuel to expect that type of return for value so we’re going to roll with Vucevic. Vucevic is averaging 44.8 fantasy points per game and 1.44 fantasy points per minute.
He’s also coming off of two big games since the start of the second half of the season with 55.1 and 52.4 fantasy points. The Knicks are also giving up 57.76 fantasy points to centers, allowing them to average 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game.
Just like Jokic, Vucevic almost put up a triple double also in his last meeting versus the Knicks, recording 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assist. He is easily the top center to roll with tonight that can return 5x and 6.5x value.
Fantasy Basketball – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays
Point Guard: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (43.55 for 6.5x)
Once again, time to run Dennis Smith Jr. as the Knicks continue to run him as much as they can, preparing for the off-season. DSJ is averaging 27.5 fantasy points per game and .98 fantasy points per minute. He still is under $7k which is astonishing as he gets 30+ minutes usually.
The Knicks are tanking and tanking badly so there is some risk if games start to turn bad. But the Orlando Magic are currently allowing opposing point guards to average 22 points, 7 assist, and 6 rebounds per game, plus 46.52 fantasy points. As a second choice option to Russell Westbrook (even though you can go Kyrie Irving on DraftKings also), Dennis Smith Jr. is great, especially at his price.
Shooting Guard: Will Barton vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $4,900 – Needs to score 24.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.85 for 6.5x)
Honestly, on DraftKings, this shooting guard depth is horrendous and I would just stick with Evan Fournier and possibly Jamal Murray. But if you want to save even more on salary, go with Will Barton who gets to face the Oklahoma City Thunder who are giving up 43.50 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.
Barton isn’t anything special and has only returned value in three of his last five games. He is averaging 26 minutes per game and just needs 24.5 fantasy points to hit his value of 5x.
Small Forward: Jayson Tatum vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $5,900 – Needs to score 29.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (38.35 for 6.5x)
I usually don’t play any other Boston Celtic player if you aren’t named Kyrie Irving or Al Horford currently but Jayson Tatum has a nice price tag to go with the play that he has had recently. He has scored 30+ fantasy points in three of his last four games with Friday’s game being where he just scored 18.75 fantasy points.
He gets to face a Raptors team that may be without Kawhi Leonard, plus they give up 39.24 fantasy points to the small forward position. Tatum is averaging 31.1 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. The last time he played below 30 minutes was on February 9th, so even at a fantasy point per minute, he’s projected to hit at least 31 fantasy points tonight.
Power Forward: Paul Milsap vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)
We have already covered Paul Milsap as a top tier fantasy basketball play for FanDuel but on DraftKings, he’s priced way too low. He’s honestly a steal tonight on this slate at $6,200 and he may be chalk but I would try to find a way to plug him in here too.
Center: Al Horford vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.95 for 6.5x)
Al Horford has had some really good games lately (besides Saturday), scoring 50+ fantasy points in three games. He dropped 62.25 fantasy points on their first game back to start the second half of the season but did only score 28 fantasy points against Chicago.
He’s still really cheap. He gets to face a Toronto Raptors defense that allows opposing centers to average 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 assist per game, plus give up 54.17 fantasy points. Horford almost put up a double double also versus the Raptors in their last meeting with 24 points and 7 rebounds.
Fantasy Basketball – FanDuel: The Mid Tier Plays
Point Guard: Jamal Murray vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value (44.2 for 6.5x)
On FanDuel, you can go either Jamal Murray or Dennis Smith Jr., I don’t think you can go wrong with either one. Murray gets to face a Thunder defense that is allowing opposing point guards to average 19 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds, plus 42.95 fantasy points per game.
Murray is coming off of a 35 and 29.8 fantasy point game since the All-Star Break. He’s averaging 31.9 fantasy points per game and .96 fantasy points per minute. On such a small slate, Murray may go under-owned due to the match-up he has but he still has a ceiling of 34 fantasy points to reach his 5x value.
Shooting Guard: Damyean Dotson vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value (35.1 for 6.5x)
Damyean Dotson has been playing huge minutes in the second half of the season with 33 and 36 minutes, scoring 29.1 and 39 fantasy points in those two games. He hasn’t had the best start in his young career playing for the Knicks, averaging just 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist currently.
He gets to face the Orlando Magic who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist, plus 41.42 fantasy points. Dotson did basically nothing in their last match-up versus the Magic, recording just 5 points, and 1 rebound. If his minutes are going to be above 30 minutes, he should be able to reach the 27 fantasy points.
Small Forward: Jonathan Isaac vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.25 for 6.5x)
Jonathn Isaac is very similar to Damyean Dotson as he has played 31 and 30 minutes to start off the second half of the season, but he has scored just 12.6 and 28.2 fantasy points. But he’s facing the New York Knicks who give up the most fantasy points to small forwards with 44.11.
They allow small forwards also to average 21 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Isaac is averaging just 22.4 fantasy points per game and .86 fantasy points per minute. He’s a great salary relief on this FanDuel slate but he could be a little less owned then Damyean Dotson.
Power Forward: Jayson Tatums vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value ( 43.55 for 6.5x)
Just like on DraftKings, Tatums is still in play on FanDuel and many may be off of him as a play with his last performance, scoring just 19.7 fantasy points. He has a low ceiling on both sites and I’ll be using him in a line or two. *Check DraftKings Mid Tier slide for Jayson Tatum stats, plus versus Toronto.
Center: Mitchell Robinson vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.25 for 6.5x)
New York Knicks may have gotten something right running with Mitchell Robinson on Sunday, except for the fact that they did not start him. Robinson put up 47.3 fantasy points off of 30 minutes, recording 15 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 blocks.
If they sit DeAndre Jordan once again, Robinson will most likely end up being chalk. He gets to face the Magic who are allowing opposing centers to average 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 assist, plus 53.05 fantasy points. Robinson has only hit under 30 fantasy points twice in his past five games, both of those games he had played under 20 minutes also.
Fantasy Basketball – DraftKings: The Low Tier Plays
Point Guard: D.J. Augustin vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $4,100 – Needs to score 20.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (26.65 for 6.5x)
Hey guys, look! It’s the drug that I keep running back to, D.J. Augustin! He’s coming off of two good games since the start of the second half with 28.75 and 31.75 fantasy points. He’s averaging 22.9 fantasy points per game and .84 fantasy points per minute.
He gets to face the New York Knicks who are giving up 46.18 fantasy points to the point guard position. Like I love mentioning, Augustin gets a lot of court time, averaging 27 minutes per game. At a low cost of $4,100, Augustin is low risk and very high reward if the Magic can get it rolling against the tanking Knicks.
Shooting Guard: Damyean Dotson vs. Orlando Magic
Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)
I’ve already mentioned Daymean Dotson in the previous slide as a mid tier play for FanDuel but he’s a great low tier play on DraftKings. Just like D.J. Augustin, he’s a low price with a very high ceiling versus the Orlando Magic.
Small Forward: Terrance Ferguson vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $3,800 – Needs to score 19 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.7 for 6.5x)
This could end up being a very low owned play with Terrance Ferguson who has struggled to hit value in his last five games. He’s averaging just 7 points and 2 rebounds on the season. He gets to face the Nuggets who are allowing opposing small forward to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 41.80 fantasy points per game.
Ferguson was basically nonexistent in their last match-up versus the Denver Nuggets but with such a small slate, we need to throw some risk on it and Terrance Ferguson is that play.
Power Forward: Jerami Grant vs. Denver Nuggets
Salary: $4,600 – Needs to score 23 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.9 for 6.5x)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have some great cheap plays tonight that may go unseen and Jerami Grant is the next one up. He’s averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game and .80 fantasy points per minute.
Grant started the second half of the season with a great night, scoring 36 fantasy points but then followed it up with a bad performance versus the Sacramento Kings with 19 fantasy points. The Nuggets are allowing power forwards to average 49.11 fantasy points per game also. Grant sees close to 30 minutes per game and if there isn’t some crazy injury news where Grant sees more time, he should go low owned.
Center: Mason Plumlee vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)
Mason Plumlee gets a price decrease once again by $200 after dropping down from $5,500 to $5,000 in the previous couple games, He started the second half of the season with 32.75 fantasy points but followed that performance up with a 24.5 fantasy point game. He’s averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game and 1.14 fantasy points per minute.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing opposing centers to average 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, plus 52.88 fantasy points. Plumlee recorded 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assist in the last outing against the Thunder. I don’t think we can expect a similar performance tonight since Plumlee has been on a different level.
Fantasy Basketball – FanDuel: The Low Tier Plays
Point Guard: D.J. Augustin vs. New York Knicks
Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 24 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)
If you want to know about my addiction of D.J. Augustin, check the previous slide because I’ll be playing Augustin on both sites and he provides great salary relief. No matter the site, he has a very low ceiling for a guy who averages 27 minutes per game.
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Shooting Guard: Danny Green vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)
Danny Green has taken a backseat since arriving in Toronto but is still averaging 28 minutes per game. He’s also averaging 21 fantasy basketball points per game and .75 fantasy points per minute.
To start off the second half of the season, Green has just returned value at 5x, scoring 24.8 and 21.2 fantasy points. He does have a tough match-up with the Boston Celtics who are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist.
They are also just giving up 37.85 fantasy points to the shooting guard position. I would advise going cheaper at a different position and paying up for Jamal Murray or Evan Fournier over any other shooting guard.
Small Forward: Will Barton vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $5,200 – Needs to score 26 fantasy points or more to exceed value (33.8 for 6.5x)
If you go back to the DraftKings: “The Mid Tier Plays” slide then you’ll see the piece on Will Barton already. He’s the “lowest” price small forward that I would down to on this FanDuel slate as there aren’t too many other options.
The Denver Nuggets have a tough position with a full healthy squad now so we have to be very careful on who we play with guys who play multiple positions. He still has a low ceiling on the FanDuel slate.
Power Forward: Daniel Theis vs. Toronto Raptors
Salary: $3,700 – Needs to score 18.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.05 for 6.5x)
Daniel Theis is extremely cheap on this slate but his minutes have been scattered. In his past five games Theis has played 16, 12, 17, 6, and 17 minutes. He has a very low ceiling tonight and if his minutes are there, he should be able to reach it.
Toronto are allowing opposing power forwards to average 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, plus 45.35 fantasy points. Theis is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. This is a major risk and low owned play for tonight but just be very careful on the punt you play tonight.
Center: Mason Plumlee vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value (35.1 for 6.5x)
Mason Plumlee is a great play on both sites and at an affordable one for that. If you need a cheap option for a big man, Plumlee is your guy. I just wrote him up on the previous slide if you need any information for himself or for what the Oklahoma City Thunder give up to opposing centers.
DraftKings Tiers play February 26. dark. Next
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