DraftKings NBA Picks February 26: Kyrie loves Toronto
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks February 26: Kyrie loves Toronto
The unbalanced schedule is really hitting after the All Star Break. We have another night with just three games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. There are still three players in five figures, and all have decent matchups. Which one should we try to build with? Let’s take a look!
Did you guys check out some NHL and PGA over the break? I did, and thanks to our advice right here at Fantasy CPR, I was able to add a little bit to my bankroll for the stretch run of the NBA season. Just because the NBA is back up and running doesn’t mean we need to ignore the friends we made over the break, right?
Four of my five lineups broke 290, but only one broke the cash line of 312.5 DraftKings points. Donicic going big in the nightcap hurt the bottom line last night.
There was actually a four way tie for first last night between PetrGibbons, Dinkpiece, mb44731, and mrgoodseats. They all had the same lineup, building with Towns, Tobias, Russell, and Markkanen. They goet great value out of Kelly Olynyk, Tyus Jones, Dwight Powell, and Brogdon.
I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.
This looks like a night to pick a strong core and work one or two lineups around it.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook’s 104 DraftKings points in two games against Denver isn’t much to write home about. However, neither were his numbers against Utah and he blew up on them. Westbrook is the talk of OKC again after four straight games of 63 or more DraftKings points. The triple double streak may be over, but Russ is still going strong.
On paper, this is not a good matchup for Kyrie Irving, but he has been his brightest against the best this year. Irving has averaged 57.4 DraftKings points in the three games with Toronto, shooting an impressive 60% from the floor and dishing out nearly 12 assists per contest. Can he do it again?
Honorable Mention:
You can’t say the same thing for Kyle Lowry. His average against Boston in the three games is only 31.5 DraftKings points. I would much rather take a chance on Dennis Smith Jr. in a worse matchup and the ever-changing Knicks backcourt.
The return of all of Denver’s guards has served to cap the upside of Jamal Murray, but he is still churning out 5x value. I view Murray as more of a cash game play here, but on a short slate, you can do worse for his price if this is what you have left.
Dark Horses:
We really can’t trust Mudiay anymore. Or any Knicks guard for that matter. Smith is the only one worth playing out of this mess, so we have to value hunt elsewhere. Denver is still starting Malik Beasley, but a pedestrian game against the Clippers guard defense wont help his cause any. Beasley’s minutes are more likely to evaporate than anyone not named Monte Morris.
D.J. Augustin is quietly shelling out 5x value for the Magic. This is a good spot against the Knicks, a team that He has 47.75 DraftKings points again in two meetings this year. Augustin isn’t going to win you a GPP, but he certainly wont lose you one either. Can you say that about Isaiah Thomas? The one thing to take away from the Clippers game is that Thomas played 24 minutes. If he does that against the Thunder, he’s going to hit value at this price.
My pick: Irving(PG); Westbrook(PG)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Evan Fournier has 60 DraftKings points in just 48 minutes against the Knicks this year. So what if it turns into a blowout? Fournier is likely still going to get his. Terrence Ross has nearly matched that output off the bench, and he is $500 less. I will likely have at least one lineup with both Fournier and Ross in it.
Honorable Mention:
I still don’t know that we can trust Will Barton or Gary Harris. If I have to use one, I’m going with Harris, but Jaylen Brown is sandwiched in the middle of this tier. Brown is likely the way to go here, but with SG as weak as it is, I’ll be paying up when paying up still means spending less than $6,000.
Turd Ferguson has faded back to oblivion with Dennis Schroder back in the fold. Schroder had to good games over the weekend, picking up right where he left off. There isn’t a lot of upside for Schroder, but he is a strong value play at a weak position on an overall weak slate. What more do you want?
Dark Horses:
Damyean Dotson has 74 DraftKings points in 71 minutes in the two games since Kadeem Allen got exiled to the G-League. Dotson appears to be just as safe as DSJ, at least for now. I like Dotson here, but Orlando is likely going to hold him under 30 DraftKings points tonight.
Allonzo Trier played 58 minutes in the two weekend games, but didn’t really put up that big of numbers. That is, until you consider the price. Trier got 40 DraftKings points at $3,600, which is good for more than 5x value.
My pick: Fournier(SG), Dotson(G); Fournier(SG), Ross(G), Schroder(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
If you want to fade Paul George, I understand. He has been under 50 DraftKings points in two of the last three games and he has 98 DraftKings points in two games against Denver this year. That would clock him in a little under value. Now I present this question to you? What if you’re wrong? What if you fade PG and he is 50% (conservative estimate) owned and goes for 60? Did whoever you fade him for get 60? I doubt it. George is still hard to fade on a short slate where it’s simple to fit all three expensive players in a lineup.
Kawhi Leonard is the only reason that fading George may work. In three games against the Celtics this year, Kawhi has averaged 54.3 DraftKings points. The last meeting was the low water mark for both Kawhi and Irving in this series this season, and they both still hit value.
Honorable Mention:
There is a steep drop off after top tier, but stepping down to Jonathan Isaac doesn’t feel like much of a step down. Isaac put up 32 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes in the first meeting with the Knicks. This is likely going to be another blowout, but most of the Magic core players hit 5x value before resting in the first meeting. On this small of a slate, we really can’t afford to skip one game all together. A blowout caps the upside, but ignoring Orlando all together seems like a bad idea.
Kevin Knox was completely locked down by Orladndo in the first meeting. The Knicks have been playing him big minutes again, but I don’t know that I would trust this.
Dark Horses:
Gordon Hayward followed a strong stretch with an uninspiring game against the Bulls over the weekend. This would normally be enough to move me off of Hayward, but he has averaged 32.8 DraftKings points in the three games against Toronto this year in 29 minutes per game. If Hayward can do that for this price, he’s at almost 8x value!
Playing Wes Iwundu here kind of feels like playing for a blowout, but he is still seeing 20 minutes per game regardless. Iwundu has averaged 23 minutes per game in two games against the Knicks so far, but he hasn’t done a lot with them, picking up just 29 DraftKings points combined.
My pick: Leonard(SF), Hayward(F); Isaac(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Pascal Siakam is the highest priced power forward unless you want to use one of the SF leftovers. Honestly, that’s a better option. Siakam has struggled against Boston this year. The reasons for this are many, not just because of Boston’s defense. Kawhi going nuts on Boston. In the last meeting with the Celtics, Siakam shot just six times. There are much better options tonight, even the guy on the other side of the court from him. Jayson Tatum has averaged 34.8 DraftKings points against Toronto in the three games and runs you $1,100 less.
Honorable Mention:
Like Aaron Gordon! Gordon put up 37.25 DraftKIngs points in just 29 minutes in his one game against the Knicks. The Knicks aren’t bad up front, but they still can’t handle Gordon so far.
Paul Millsap has 153.5 DraftKings points over the last three games. If you aren’t playing him right now, thank you for your donation. Millsap is the most egregious price overlook from DraftKings on this slate.
Dark Horses:
Despite the recent strong run from Millsap, Mason Plumlee is still putting up strong numbers. Plumlee has nine straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. He remains a strong value backing up both Denver frontcourt positions.
If you’re going to use a Morris brother tonight, I actually prefer Markieff for the Thunder. Kieff took plenty of minutes from Jerami Grant. This is a tough matchup against Denver, and I honestly think both Thunder forwards are going to have trouble here, just like Marcus has had against Toronto. If I take a shot with one though, it will be Markieff. He has played well in his brief Thunder stint so far.
Khem Birch now has a dozen straight games of double digit DraftKings points. There is virtually no upside here, but Birch has been a decent value play if you are trying to cram all three studs tonight.
My pick: Millsap(PF), Tatum(UTIL); Millsap(PF), Tatum(F)
DraftKings NBA Centers:
Best Bets:
As good as Nikola Jokic has been this year, he has actually been a little under value in the two games against the Thunder. Jokic has 92.75 DraftKings points against the Thunder, but has only played 63 minutes in the two games. I can see fading Jokic here, but there is always a chance he goes off. I will say it is less likely considering the interior defense of the Thunder.
As with the rest of his teammates, Nikola Vucevic has done a lot of damage in a little court time against the Knicks this year. Vucevic has 104 DraftKings points in just 57 minutes. DeAndre Jordan is out for this one, so expect Vucevic to eat again.
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Honorable Mention:
After three massive games, Al Horford put up a pedestrian 28 DraftKings points against the Bulls on Sunday. However, Horford has averaged 37.8 DraftKings points per game in the three games against Toronto. The peripherals say to not stack this game, but the individual stats are strong on some players in this series this year. There is value to be had.
You can include Serge Ibaka in that as well. Ibaka has 100 DraftKings points in the three games. The arrival of Marc Gasol hasn’t hurt Ibaka much……until Sunday. There is just enough uncertainty here to turn me away. The arrival of Gasol could actually have a pretty big impact on the final regular season game of this series. Enough that I would consider using Gasol if he starts since he is the cheapest of the three frontcourt options for Toronto.
Dark Horses:
This looks like a horrible matchup for Steven Adams on paper. Try telling him that. Adams has had his way with Jokic this year, putting up 85.5 DraftKings points on him so far. Still, Adams has been miserable from an offensive standpoint this month. There isn’t much to go around after Russ and PG get their fill. This is a good price on Adams, but I’m still not sure we can wring value out of him.
Mitchell Robinson got the start with Jordan out on Sunday. Expect that to be the case again tonight. Robinson does make me a little nervous since he loves to foul, but if he can stay on the court, there is huge upside here, even against Vucevic.
My pick: Robinson(C); Gasol(C)
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