DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Tuesday February 26

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of DraftKings Tiers plays! There’s just three games tonight which makes the slate chalkier, but still plenty of fun.

I have to apologize for the DraftKings Tiers article not being up yesterday, but I unfortunately lost power Sunday night until Monday morning and couldn’t swing it. Hopefully we get into a better rhythm moving forward and that starts tonight with just three games. That will skew our ownership numbers but it also won’t stop me from playing this format so let’s get rolling.

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 1

Choices – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Nikola Jokic

This is legitimately a difficult choice. We’ve seen games where George has out-produced Westbrook and vice-versa. We know that Westbrook and Jokic are threats to triple double every time they step onto the court. Looking at Jokic first, the spot on paper isn’t the best. The Thunder only give up the seventh fewest DK points to centers on the season, and Steven Adams is a good defender. It’s not something that makes me that worried because it’s still Jokic, but you have to split hairs when deciding between players in Tiers. Denver being basically healthy doesn’t exactly help Jokic either.

Of the two Thunder players, I think my favorite is Westbrook. Despite George being in MVP form, I think the floor is safer for Westbrook by just a smidge plus he gets a great matchup defensively. For any time he spends on court, he’ll see either Jamal Murray or the newly returned Isaiah Thomas. Thomas has spent the last few seasons of his career being a neutral to poor defender in Net Rating, and his minutes climbed to 24 this past game. Granted, some of that could have been the score but it’s still a better spot for Westbrook than George in my eyes. This is going to be a tough choice but I tend to believe that Westbrook carries the ownership as well.

My Ranks – Westbrook, George, Jokic

ORLANDO, FL – JANUARY 22: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic looks to pass against Spencer Hawes #00 of the Charlotte Hornets during the game at Amway Center on January 22, 2016 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 2

Choices – Nikola Vucevic, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry

It’s likely not going to come as a huge surprise, but Vucevic is my favorite of this Tier. He’s exploded this season and is the best player on the Magic, who are pushing for a playoff berth. On paper, it’s a great matchup for him as well. Vucevic sits 11th in paint touches on the season and the Knicks have gotten absolutely smashed in the paint. They’ve given up the most points in the paint and the sixth most paint rebounds on the season. That dynamic changes a little bit if DeAndre Jordan plays but it’s not something that changes anything to drastically.

The two Raptors players are similar, but Leonard would have the higher ceiling. When they’re both active, Lowry seems to be very passive more often than not. I wouldn’t say either has the easiest matchup but on the season, Leonard has a usage rate about 12 percent higher and a 1.331.33 to 1.10 FPPM advantage as well. Targeting against a healthy Boston team isn’t always a recipe for success but I think Leonard checks in as the clear number one option of the Raptors players. For some reason, he’s loved Boston too. In three games, Kawhi is averaging 31.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

Irving might go a little overlooked, but maybe he shouldn’t after his massive game. We all know what Irving is capable of when he’s on his game but I will say Toronto has been very good on field goals from within five feet of the basket. They are very vulnerable from the 10-14 foot range, where they rank in the bottom five in field goal percentage given up. He’s loved Toronto with an average of 30.3 points, 11.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds in three matchups. I have a blind spot when it comes to Leonard and I don’t generally love him. Irving is a very attractive GPP option.

My Ranks – Vucevic, Leonard, Irving, Lowry

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 3

Choices – Aaron Gordon, Pascal Siakam, Al Horford, Jayson Tatum, Dennis Smith Jr. 

Talk about players I have a blind spot with and here comes Jayson Tatum into my life. The biggest issue with both Celtics players is when the team is healthy, the usage is totally spread out. Tatum is at 1.00 FPPM even with all the Celtics main players on the court, which is fine but unspectacular. If you play cash, he’s a fine play and is relatively safe. Horford falls into a similar boat although the Raptors have been vulnerable to big men in certain spots.

The other three players in the Tier are likely where I’m going to head. Siakam is going to be very overlooked if Lowry and Leonard are both active, and it can be(fairly) argued that the ceiling is quite limited as the third option on the Raptors. Boston has been the third best team against power forwards on the season as well, putting another notch against Siakam. One team on the opposite end of the spectrum against power forwards is the New York Knicks.

I may not have said this very often this season, but Aaron Gordon may be the safest play on the board. Yes, he’s coming off a poor game the past time out but he’s due for a bounce back against the hapless Knicks. They have given up the seventh most real points to power forwards on the year, meaning it fits Gordon’s game quite nicely. The GPP play is Dennis Smith. Orlando plays at a slow pace but Smith presents potentially the highest upside of the Tier. The Magic have given up the ninth most DK points to point guards and Smith is locked into about 30 minutes a night. We know the 50 point game could be in sight tonight.

My Ranks – Smith(GPP), Gordon(top option in cash), Horford, Tatum, Siakam

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 4

Choices – Marc Gasol, Jamal Murray, Serge Ibaka, Paul Millsap, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac 

Right off the bat, Gasol and Ibaka are very tough sells for me. Since the trade that brought Gasol over the border happened, he’s been playing limited minutes. It seemed like he might be ready to get more minute when he drew the start on Sunday, but that didn’t materialize. Gasol and Ibaka split the minutes right down the middle, making both a pass for me.

Next up on the “I’m a little concerned with the minutes” scale is Jamal Murray. I’m hopeful that the drop to 24 minutes this past game was just a function of the Nuggets running the Clippers out of the gym. The only reason I have at least a little hesitation with that logic is Isaiah Thomas. His minutes took a big jump so Murray would be GPP only for me, and he does carry upside against the Thunder.

Of the Magic players in this Tier, I would slightly prefer Isaac. The young man has been going into his own lately and while both players are around 30 minutes per game, Isaac might be the more well-rounded player for fantasy purposes. He has much better steals/blocks upside and isn’t quite as reliant on just scoring as Fournier can be.

The number one player of this Tier for me is the white hot Paul Millsap. He’s going to be a player the Nuggets want to have playing well coming into the postseason and Millsap has been crushing since he returned from injury. From Christian Clark at BSNDenver –

While the Thunder have been a very good defensive team, one of the weaknesses they have displayed has been against power forwards. They rank in the bottom 10 in DK points allowed and surrender the third most real points. These are the Tiers that can go a lot of ways, but Millsap might represent the best combo of floor and ceiling.

My Ranks – Millsap, Isaac, Murray, Fournier, Gasol, Ibaka

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 5

Choices – Steven Adams, Marcus Morris, Emmanuel Mudiay, Terrence Ross, Will Barton, Mason Plumlee, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson

This Tier is the byproduct of such a small slate and that’s going to be the case in Tier 6 as well. Before we get there, let’s dissect this one first. We’ll start with the Nuggets players and I’d be lying  if I said I had much interest in either of them. With Millsap back and playing well, Plumlee hasn’t eclipsed 22 minutes in the past three games. Barton sees minutes but has not demonstrated any ceiling lately. If you played him on Sunday, you know that the floor is under 10 DK points.

Another player I just don’t want to mess with is Adams. He used to be very reliable every single night but that safety has gone out the window with George and Westbrook running the show to the extent that they are. The Nuggets have only given up the sixth fewest DK points on the season to centers so he’s nothing more than a dart throw.

Ross and Morris are both fairly interesting here. Ross has seen his minutes creep up lately and it’s not like the Knicks defend anyone that well. The Knicks allow the 11th highest field goal percentage from three point land and Ross can get hot from that range very easily. He’s shooting 41 percent from downtown the past 10 games on top of that. Morris would be preferable if a Celtic was out of the lineup, but he’s been too quiet lately. The veteran wing is similar to Tatum in that there’s somewhat of a floor but not a ton of ceiling unless he’s shooting very well tonight.

That leaves us with the Knicks trio. I’m not too high on Mudiay since Smith and Damyean Dotson are both playing big minutes. Mudiay has shown flashes through the season but circumstances have changed. Knox saw his minutes go back up and actually rebounded the ball this past game, not relying on just real points. However, I think Robinson is my favorite play. New York needs someone to match Vucevic in the paint and Robinson has shown considerable upside in his limited minutes. If New York unleashes him for 30, he could walk into a double double and block 2-4 shots on top of that. My only fear would be potential foul trouble but it could be worth the risk here.

My Ranks – Robinson, Knox, Ross, Morris, Barton, Adams, Mudiay, Plumlee

Fantasy Basketball – Tier 6

Choices – Dennis Schroder, Jerami Grant, Gary Harris, Jaylen Brown, DJ Augustin, Kadeem Allen, Jeremy Lin, Damyean Dotson 

This might be the least fun Tier of the night because we’re starting to scrape bottom. I thought DK might leave this Tier a few players shorter but they decide not to, so we have to narrow it down on our own. The easiest one to cast aside if everyone is in the game is Lin. He’ll be lucky to see 20 minutes with Toronto at full strength, making him easy to fade.

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There’s a chance that Grant could see fewer minutes with the integration of Markieff Morris into the rotations as well. I don’t love him in this spot against the size of Jokic and Millsap, so if you’re playing a secondary Thunder, Schroder is your man. He could easily score 15-20 real points in limited minutes, making him a nice play in this range.

Brown and Allen are both likely limited on minutes, with a cap to go with it. Allen has some upside and could always get extra minutes because of who his coach is. Brown would be a lot more attractive if someone from Boston wasn’t there, but he’s sharing second unit duties with Gordon Hayward. He has a solid floor, but the upside is likely limited.

The trio that’s left all has some potential. Dotson has been scoring a ton lately and been over 30 minutes in the past two games. He’s one of my favorites in the Tier, but I don’t think I could stomach three Knicks even in a GPP. You’d probably have to limit the New York exposure somewhere, despite what Brian Tulloch would tell you. Harris gets a Thunder team that has struggled with shooting guards, giving up the sixth most DK points. Westbrook can be careless with the ball as well, upping his steal potential. Augustin is the safest and has some upside against the Knicks point guards. He’s locked into the highest minutes of the Tier and gets a solid matchup to boot.

My Ranks – Augustin, Dotson, Harris, Schroder, Brown, Grant, Allen, Lin

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