FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday 2/26 – Kawhi vs. Kyrie Part IV

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Tuesday 2/26

Hello everyone and welcome to the Tuesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

After a huge 11 game slate last night (with some high scores as predicted) we are back to another really small 3-gamer today.  Unfortunately, this pattern continues at least one more day as we cycle back to 11 more games tomorrow night.  This bums me out a little because I really enjoy the 5-8 game slates the most as I’ve probably mentioned before.

Last night was okay, but not great. Eric Bledsoe decided to bust as chalk and a number of value plays like Kelly Olynk and Dwight Powell went off. I managed to break even, which I consider a win on any given night due to the volatility and unpredictability of DFS. Live to fight another day!

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Today we will skip the First Look and jump right into the game by game breakdowns, I’ll include all relevant injury and Vegas info in each capsule.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Orlando @ New York

Vegas: Orlando -7, 215.5 Total

Key Injuries: Isaiah Briscoe (out), Mo Bamba (out), DeAndre Jordan (questionable)

This is my least favorite game of the three tonight, but still a game that we may need to target, especially for some much-needed value that we can’t find on any of the other four teams.

I’ll start with my favorite play and it has to be Nikola Vucevic (10200) from the Magic. He’s dominated the Knicks this season, posting 24-12-5 against them in two prior matchups in only 29 minutes per game. He’s right up there with the other high-priced studs on this slate (Westbrook, George, Jokic) in terms of fantasy point per-minute production and yet he’s consistently lower owned. If the Knicks can keep it close tonight, then I think Vuc can have a massive game and possibly outscore the higher-priced Jokic.

My other interest in the Magic is in some value plays such as D.J. Augustin (4800), Jerian Grant (3700), and Khem Birch (3700). With Briscoe out again tonight, all the point guard minutes are going to be split by Augustin and Grant and both are cheap enough to easily pay off their price tags in an excellent matchup against the Knicks, who have been bad against point guards all season and have only got worse since Dennis Smith Jr. arrived. Birch is always a nice punt play due to his solid per-minute upside, I just wish he could get 20 minutes per game at some point.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Orlando @ New York

The Knicks have some solid plays on the other side of this game, too. My favorite play has to be Damyean Dotson (5400), who has started to flourish as the starting shooting guard for New York. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 19 points per game and is showing some nice chemistry playing alongside DSJ.

With DeAndre Jordan potentially being out you have to consider the emerging rookie Mitchell Robinson (6500) who is coming a massive double-double with 5 blocked shots in 30 minutes against the Spurs. Robinson was on my list of rookies to watch out for at the beginning of the season and we finally see him flash the upside that he has with his athleticism and length.

There are a few more value plays I am considering here on the Knicks with Lance Thomas (3700) and Noah Vonleh (4000). Thomas started against the Spurs and played 30 minutes after not being in the rotation for several weeks because, well the Knicks do “Knicks things.” If he starts again I don’t see a reason not to play him for some much-needed salary relief. Vonleh has been in a major funk lately and has had his minutes reduced drastically, but his price is so low that I’d be willing to take a shot on him if DeAndre Jordan does sit out again tonight.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Boston @ Toronto

Vegas: Toronto -4, 226 Total

Key Injuries: Fred Van Vleet (out), Aaron Baynes (out)

This should be a great game tonight between two elite Eastern conference teams. It’s also been a dynamic fantasy matchup for my two main targets tonight – Kyrie Irving (9700) and Kawhi Leonard (9600).

Kawhi Leonard has averaged 32-10-3 in the first three games these two teams have played, while Irving has piled up a 30-4-12 line in those games. I know some people don’t like weighing previous performances when evaluating matchups but in this case, we have a solid sample size (3 games over the last three months) and two players who both tend to take over the offense for their teams in big games.

I’m going to keep my analysis for this game very short. I am locking in Kyrie and Kawhi in nearly every lineup tonight as a 1-1 stack and I’m really not that interested in any of their supporting casts. Most of the other options are priced up beyond what I am willing to pay for them anyway. This may seem like an oversimplified analysis, but sometimes in DFS “less is more” and I am going to keep it super simple as far as this game is concerned.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Oklahoma City @ Denver

Vegas: Denver (-3), 237 Total

Key Injuries: Trey Lyles (out)

The Vegas total here is massive and it tells me that we are going to want some exposure to this game. I’m just having a really hard time figuring out how to do it. The Nuggets are being paced up the most of any team on the slate as the Thunder play very fast, but the pricing of all the studs in this game also makes it very difficult to stack.

My approach is likely going to be to target some of the cheaper plays in this game that are in good spots. While Russell Westbrook (12200) is a good bet to be the highest scoring player on the slate, he’s priced appropriately and I’m willing to take a gamble that Kyrie can score almost as many points for 2500 less. A logical pivot off Westbrook is Dennis Schroder (5200) who is still really cheap and is a great play off the bench just about every night.

The same logic applies to Paul George (11600) and Nikola Jokic (11000). Both are elite players and excellent targets in this game, but can I get nearly the same production from Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Vucevic? It’s a risky bet, but one that I am considering making. I tried building a lineup with PG13, Westy and the Joker and it’s just not going to work on FanDuel tonight with the lack of available value plays from other games.

My favorite targets in this game on the Denver side are Jamal Murray (6800) and Paul Millsap (8400). Murray has a great matchup against Westy, who is not a great defender and plays fast and loose with the ball, leading to a lot of turnovers and steal opportunities for the other team.  He’s the kind of streaky shooter that can get hot and rack up fantasy points in a hurry.

Meanwhile, Millsap has been in vintage form lately, averaging 18-13 with 4 steals/blocks over his last four games. He’s finally playing 30 minutes a night and reminding us what a fantasy beast he can be. I have no problem paying up for him even at this price since power forward is such a weak position and I think he can continue his torrid pace tonight in this matchup with the Thunder.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I wouldn’t advise playing cash games on a three-game slate, especially because roster construction is really tough on FanDuel today and pricing is tight. Game-stacking is usually a great option on small slates but it’s really tough to get a full game stack of any of the games, so instead, I’ll be trying to a grab a few pieces from each game in most of my lineups tonight.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. I rarely end up keeping this lineup, things are going to change throughout the day!

PG: Kyrie Irving (9700)
PG: Jerian Grant (3700)
SG: Damyean Dotson (5400)
SG: Dennis Schroder (5200)
SF: Kawhi Leonard (9600)
SF: Lance Thomas (3700)
PF: Paul Millsap (8400)
PF: Noah Vonleh (4000)
C: Nikola Vucevic (102000)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!