FanDuel PGA: Top Picks – The 2019 Honda Classic
Welcome to this edition of FanDuel PGA Picks from FantasyCPR.com. Here you will find players to target for this weeks Honda Classic, taking place at the PGA National Resort and Spas Champion Course, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.
In this article, I will present to you some Fantasy Golf players to consider from each price tier for FanDuel PGA. Some plays will be geared toward cash games, and some for GPP tournaments. Some of course will also technically qualify as both. As we break each play down, I will be sure to specify which type of contests I am targeting that player in.
As a thank you to our readers we have a $50 Picks and Divots FREE ROLL for the Honda Classic from our friends at FantasyDraft.
I will give two players to target from $11K up to the top salary, two targets from the $10K-$11K range, and two from the $9-10K range. After that will come my top value plays from the $8-9K range, along with a couple of GPP flyers to consider for tournament play.
Last but certainly not least, I will end the article the ever popular sample lineup we like to do here at FantasyCPR. Before we get to all that, let’s check out how things fared with last week’s sample lineup!
FanDuel PGA: The 2019 WGC-Mexico Recap:
G – Justin Thomas – $12,000 – (94.1)
G – Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300 – (71.5)
G – Webb Simpson – $9,800 – (57.8)
G – Charles Howell – $9,700 – (89)
G – Tyrell Hatton – $9,200 – (95.3)
G – Haotong Li – $8,900 – (74.3)
(482)
Any time you have the caliber of players we had to choose from last week, it is going to be tough. Of course that is just the precursor to me admitting I made a few mistakes last week. Thomas was able to save a few of my contests with his 62 on Sunday, but all in all, it was a loss. I finished anywhere from 40th to 53rd in my 100 man contests, and while there was some green, it was my first overall losing weekend of 2019.
Other than Charles Howell being right in the mix and the least chalky of the bunch, Tyrell Hatton was about the only other pick I can comfortably say I nailed. Even though Hatton struggled a bit at times, his 95.3 FDP were plenty good for his $9,200 price tag.
Webb Simpson also struggled at times, but I am right back on him again this week. Tommy Fleetwood looked sort of disinterested at times again, and was vastly underwhelming once again as well. All in all, I wasn’t very pleased with the results, and I spent plenty of time going back trying to figure out why we were all on JT, and hardly anyone was on Dustin Johnson.
This week Thomas will be your chalk in all formats once again, and I have an interesting take on cash games this week. I will likely be less chalky as I was last week, so let’s proceed to this weeks Honda Classic picks and find out why!
FanDuel PGA: Top Tier Picks: ($11,000+)
Justin Thomas – $13,000 – (Cash/GPP)
After about an hour of tinkering around with lineups, trying to get Thomas to fit in a cash lineup, I realized I am just going to have to fade him in cash games, and go balanced. I feel like JT is going to win this week, so a fade in cash games where he will likely be 50% owned seems awfully dangerous. However, with the price this high, rostering at least one golfer under $8K is more risky it seems, trying to nail down this value.
I am going to go heavy on Thomas in tournament play instead, and keep the -EV punt plays for exactly that, and not force one into my cash lineup. You will not see Thomas in this weeks sample lineup, because it always centers around cash games, so you have been warned. But understand, he is still a great play in any format, if you pick the value correctly.
Last years Honda Classic was another victory for JT, as he held off Luke List in a playoff. What hasn’t been talked about much this week is the fact that he did miss the cut here in 2017 by one stroke, which is rare, but safe to note it has happened here at the PGA National. The fact that he pulled out a win here does pretty much bury that when you think about it, but still worth noting nonetheless.
Sergio Garcia – $11,200 – (GPP)
I am not going to scale back my play much this week, but what I do plan to is scale back my player pool. I have been going with 15 or 16 or golfers pretty much every week spread over 25 unique lineups here on FanDuel, and after not having much success for the first time last week, it’s time to experiment a little.
Generally in a field like this, all you are going to hear this week is that JT, Fowler, or Brooks Koepka is likely to win. While I agree that Thomas is no doubt able to do just that, I have my doubts about Koepka and Fowler, and they seem like easy fades. I will instead put more stock into the veteran Sergio Garcia, and see if he can keep it going.
Garcia has been on a tear on the European Tour, and even though he had a minor hiccup at the Genesis Open a couple of weeks ago, he bounced back incredibly well in Mexico last week. He shot all four rounds under par, including a 5-under second round, and finished T-6.
He has also had some past success here at PGA National, including narrowly missing victory in 2016 with a solo second place finish. Garcia shot 4-under in 2017, good for a tie for 14th place, and faded even a little bit more last year, finishing +5 and T-33rd. Despite the steady decline in results here at the Honda Classic, it is safe to say that Garcia comes in here this week in as good of form as he was in in 2016, if not better.
***Also Consider: Rickie Fowler $11,900 – Gary Woodland $11,000***
FanDuel PGA: Mid Tier Picks: ($10,000 – $11,000)
Adam Scott – $10,800 – (Cash)
If I had to pick one player to win this week besides Justin Thomas, it would be Scott. For a guy who at one point not too long ago looked completely broken after a solid career, it is nice to see that he was able to correct whatever he was doing wrong, and bring himself back to relevance on the PGA Tour.
It always seems to come down to the putter with Scott. and when it comes to course history and course fit, few golfers are seeming to line up better than him. I feel like he should be over $11K in this field with Garcia and Woodland, and the slight discount makes him a cash lock in my opinion.
Scott’s second place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open was the closest he has came since tasting victory since 2016. I found it hard to believe he hadn’t won since, but it turns out his last victory was right here at the Honda Classic three years ago. He posted top-15’s as well here in 2017 and 2018, and is coming off of a T-7 finish at the Genesis Open two weeks ago.
Webb Simpson – $10,600 – (Cash)
I could have written up any of those plays below this week, as all are all but certain to be a part of my player pool for tournament play, but I really want to stress my angle for cash games. Remember, I am team fade JT in cash this week, and the main reason is because this price range is pretty loaded.
Simpson has played limited events for the last handful of months, and through a stretch from late last year to the Sentry TOC in January, he was able to rattle off five straight top-15’s. Last season’s PLAYERS Championship winner, Simpson grabbed a top-five here at the Honda Classic last year as well.
He recently T-20 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and struggled a bit down the stretch last week in Mexico, and finished T-39. I considered Cameron Smith here this week for cash games as well, but at this point, I will save that for GPP, and Simpson is my guy based on his finish here last year.
***Also Consider: Cameron Smith $10,700 – Luke List $10,200 – Michael Thompson $10,100 – Scott Piercy $10,000***
FanDuel PGA: Low Tier Picks: ($9,000 – $10,000)
Lucas Glover – $9,700 – (Cash)
Continuing with the theme of semi under priced cash targets, Glover is another golfer who I feel may be getting a bit slighted this week across the industry as far as salary goes. He wasn’t in the field in Mexico last week, but was able to bounce back off of his first missed cut of the year at the WMPO by finishing T-7 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am three weeks ago.
It has been well noted here in my articles over the last few weeks how great of stretch Glover has been on, but if this is your first read here, welcome first of all, and take a peek at Glover’s results since the Safeway Open and the start of the new FedEx Season.
The missed cut in Phoenix was the only one thus far, and Glover has finished no worse than T-17 in any of the other six events he has played. He does only have two top-tens in this run so most finishes are in the teens, so I don’t expect a win, but consistency and decent history here at the Honda Classic put Glover firmly in play for cash games.
Russell Knox – $9,700 – (GPP)
The easy pivot here from possible Glover chalk in tournaments is Russell Knox, who is kind of the long shot favorite to pull out a win here from what I have seen on PGA gambling Twitter this week. Just when it looked like Knox was rounding back into form with back-to-back top-15’s at the WMPO and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he did take a slight step in the wrong direction last week, as four straight average rounds led to a T-39 finish in the limited field.
Even though Knox has missed the cut here at the Honda Classic the last two years, if you go back a bit further, he had two straight solid years not that long ago. In 2014 he was in a group of four that went to a playoff that was eventually won by Russell Henley. Therefore, he had to settle for a runner-up finish with Rory McIlroy and Ryan Palmer. Then in 2015, he just missed again, finishing T-3 and missing a shot at another playoff by a stroke.
***Also Consider: Jason Kokrak $9,400 – Graeme McDowell $9,100***
FanDuel PGA: Top Value Picks: ($9,000 or Less)
Cheng-Tsung Pan – $8,600 – (Cash)
In my feverish effort to find someone to go with C.T. Pan down here in this price range to allow me to roster JT, I kept looking over and over at guys like Jason Dufner who will likely get some love, and Harold Varner who always garners a look. However, there was just nothing else around that made me comfortable enough to feel that anyone I choose has more than a 50/50 chance to make the cut.
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What I am saying is, be on the look out for one more Pan today if you want to fit JT in your cash lineup. My original thought and lineup had Satoshi Kodaira in it to be able to fit Thomas, but when I kept Pan in and removed those two, I was really liking the results I came up with by focusing on that solid mid-tier range. It feels like this group I came up with will all make the cut, and with a potential winner in Adam Scott, I love the balanced attack this week for cash games.
Keeping Pan allowed me to roster four golfers in the $10-11K range, which again I feel is kind of loaded this week. While all of the attention will be on the big three, it easier and more safe to make a balanced lineup this week in my opinion. So if you want in on team fade Justin Thomas in cash this week, please proceed to the sample lineup and join me in some 100-man 50/50’s!
***Bonus GPP Flyers: Joaquin Niemann $8,800 – Satoshi Kodaira $7,400***
FanDuel PGA: The 2019 Honda Classic – Sample Lineup
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.”
G – Adam Scott – $10,800
G – Michael Thompson – $10,100
G – Webb Simpson – $10,600
G – Scott Piercy – $10,000
G – Lucas Glover – $9,700
G – Cheng-Tsung Pan – $8,600
That is all for this weeks FanDuel PGA Targets for the 2019 Honda Classic. If you have any questions, give me a follow on Twitter with the link at the top of the article.
Next. PGA Power Rankings: The 2019 Honda Classic. dark
You can also leave a question right here in the comments, and I will do my best to respond before lock Thursday morning. Thank you for reading, and may your golf tilt be minimal this weekend!