DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Wednesday February 27

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DraftKings Tiers article! We’re back to a sprawling 10 game slate which is a perfect time to play Tiers!

I can’t slam the NBA schedule maker because it has to be a near impossible task to schedule 30 teams for 82 games on certain nights. It’s still kind of a bummer to go from 11 games Monday night to three games Tuesday night back to 11 total games tonight for our DraftKings Tiers.

The DraftKings Tiers slate is a little different because it elected to leave off the Houston Rockets game. I don’t know why considering James Harden is one of the studs of fantasy basketball, but I don’t make those calls.Like I mentioned earlier, these are the kinds of slates that I enjoy the Tiers format even more. It narrows my focus to a specific set of players, which can be very difficult to do tonight. Let’s dig into who we should be liking.

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 1

Choices – Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Karl Anthony-Towns 

This would have been the perfect spot to have Harden and make the Tier even more fun, but we’re dealing with just these three players. It bit me the last time I said it, but I think KAT is the third option be a significant amount. True, he does face a weak Hawks interior defense that plays at an insane pace but can he match his 72 DK game last game? That’s a lower probability than one of the other two going for 70.

LeBron is going to be popular after getting the Pelicans for 64 just a couple of nights ago but he’s still got one big flaw that I have a hard time with and that’s a total lack of effort through some parts of the game. Just Twitter search LeBron James from the Memphis game and he legitimately just stood there. You might not get fantasy points for effort but a night where he scores 55-60 should likely be more than that and could be tilting to watch it.

The Greek Freak is my favorite of this Tier as things stand. He’s expected to be back in the lineup and gets a glorious spot to make his return from a one game absence. He triple doubled in the first meeting in just 30 minutes and the Kings flat-out have no answer for him in the paint. Since the Kings play at the second fastest pace in the league and are at home, this game should be up and down and create opportunities galore for Antetokounmpo. I’m venturing a guess that one of the Bucks could sit, which just adds to the appeal for Antetokounmpo.

My Ranks – Antetokounmpo, James, Towns

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 2

Choices – Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

At this point of the season, I’m not going to be surprised if Irving sits this game out. The Celtics are coming off a premier matchup against the Raptors last night and that game meant a lot more than a game against the Blazers. If Irving suits up, he’s a nice GPP option because people might be scared off and Portland has been middle of the pack against point guards.

The Warriors are intriguing because we know the ceiling that they carry every night. The Heat do play at one of the slowest paces in the league and Golden State remains fully healthy, meaning there’s floor here as well. One of the ways you can split the hairs between these two is to take the chance on Curry since the Heat give up the fifth highest field goal percentage on three pointers. He’s closing in on 12 attempts per game, so the ceiling is higher while Durant is a touch more stable for cash.

That brings us to Doncic, who if anyone didn’t know, I’m quite the fan. There’s really no way around the fact that the matchup is the worst he can draw if we go by DK points given up to point guards. The Pacers have been tough on most positions all season long but sometimes the situation simply transcends the matchup metrics. Over the past month, Doncic has a usage rate approaching 37 percent and has a mark of 1.40 FPPM. That would rank as the highest in this Tier over the course of the full season. Dallas just doesn’t have anyone else and Doncic is coming off a triple double in just 33 minutes this past game.

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 3

Choices – Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, D’Angelo Russell

Unless something changes during the day, this Tier is close to a two man choice. Starting with the Pistons teammates, they have fairly safe floors but the ceiling is going to be harder to reach in this one. Griffin does still rank second in the league in overall touches behind only Nikola Jokic but the matchup looks to be tough on paper against the Spurs. They play a slow and methodical game, limiting what Griffin can do. Drummond is playing some awesome basketball right now, but the Spurs have been tough inside the paint as well. They rank inside the top 11 in both paint rebounds and points allowed. Maybe one of them can overcome it, but it’s not the spot to attack for me.

If you play Dame, you can likely lock in 35-40 points but I can’t say I love him in Boston. For whatever reason, he’s been just totally mediocre for fantasy almost all season. This was a player that was almost always hovering around $10,000 on DK last year and has been under $9,000 very often this season. The matchup would be a little enhanced if Irving were to sit out, but Boston is still a rock solid defensive squad and rank in the bottom five in DK points surrendered to point guards on the season.

If you’re playing the main slate, I actually think you could pair Beal and Russell together in a mini stack of this game but we can only play one. I’m slightly leaning with going back to Russell in this spot because he should be able to do whatever he wants to this Wizards team. The young All-Star ranks 12th in the NBA on field goals attempted off drives and Washington is bottom five in field goal percentage given up within five feet of the basket.

On top of that Russell is attempting 7.6 three’s a game and Washington is dead last in field goal percentage from that range. Beal is a close second because of just how much the Wizards rely on him for offense and he could easily drop 40 points. The Wizards are clinging onto faint playoff hopes so we can expect a full 37-40 minutes from Beal, something very few players can offer.

My Ranks – Russell, Beal, Lillard, Griffin, Drummond

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 4

Choices – Rudy Gobert, DeMar DeRozan, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, DeMarcus Cousins, Trae Young

Goodness is this Tier loaded with plays that I like. Let’s get the two that I’m least sure of out-of-the-way first, and that’s Mitchell and DeRozan. Mitchell draws the better matchup of the two and could truly excel against a fast paced Clippers team that has scuffled against opposing back courts. I wish Ricky Rubio wasn’t around so Mitchell had the keys all to himself, but he’s been quite solid lately and the potential for a big game is there. Likewise, DeRozan is sneaky and I love the fact that the Pistons give up the second highest field goal rate inside of five feet because DeRozan drives at the second highest frequency in the NBA.

If Kris Dunn and Otto Porter are both out again, Markkanen is going to be tough to fully fade out if making multiple lineups. Over the past two weeks when Dunn hasn’t been on the floor, he’s racking up 1.49 FPPM on a 32.9 percent usage rate. The matchup against the Grizzlies is far from ideal, but with those numbers another game of 50 DK is well within reach. Cousins also is in the range of a potential 50 spot but the matchup is similar to Markkanen’s on paper. Miami has been very good against centers and in the paint, but this is Boogie who is coming off his first game over 30 minutes.

Young and Gobert are the two that I like the and it would be silly to ignore just how good Young has been lately.

He’s been excellent even before that as well but one thing that has cemented Young as a great fantasy player is very simple – minutes. He’s been coasting past the 30 minute mark lately, which is the easiest way to have some big upside. He’s a 1.31 FPPM player on the season, so getting 35-ish minutes was one of the last pieces to the puzzle. Gobert gets one of the best possible matchups on the board, as the Clippers play fast and are in the bottom five in DK points to centers, paint points and rebounds and real points to centers. I wouldn’t be surprised if any player led this Tier, in all honesty.

My Ranks – Gobert, Young, Markkanen, Cousins, DeRozan, Mitchell

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 5

Choices – Jrue Holiday, LaMarcus Aldridge, Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Zach LaVine, Jusuf Nurkic, De’Aaron Fox, Jonas Valanciunas

I still firmly believe the Pelicans players are GPP only. We don’t know what the whims of this team are and they both could see their minutes drop without any notice. That happened with Randle a few games ago when he only played 25. Both are in great spots against a high paced Lakers team, but it’s New Orleans. The risk is there. To me, Aldridge is an easier fade from this Tier because I think Drummond is playing well enough to limit him right now. Detroit is top five in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, while Aldridge is 10th in paint touches in the league.

Let’s talk about the guards next, because that trio all has some things going for them. LaVine would be in the same boat as Markkanen if everything is running through those two players for the Bulls. Memphis is more towards the middle of the pack against point guards, so the matchup wouldn’t be awful. I’d want Dunn and Porter out to consider him. Conley has been as steady as they come and the Bulls are a bad defensive team all the way around, so he would be the preferred cash option. Fox is on a nice little run and the spot isn’t great on paper, but the pace of this game should be outstanding. Both teams are in the top six pace-wise and Fox has been locked into 30 minutes(at least) a night.

The two big men are left to battle it out and I’m siding with Valanciunas. Since he’s been in Memphis, the veteran has been gobbling up usage to the tune of 33.6 percent and that’s translated to a 1.56 FPPM. Chicago is in the bottom five against centers, so if Valanciunas hits 30 minutes, he could flirt with 45-50 DK. People will overlook Nurkic, but he could take advantage of a tired Boston team who had to travel after getting rocked in Toronto last night.

My Ranks – Valanciunas, Fox, LaVine, Nurkic, Conley, Holiday, Randle, Aldridge

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 6

Choices – Anthony Davis, John Collins, Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, Buddy Hield, Lou Williams, Brandon Ingram, Marvin Bagley

It’s incredible to see Davis all the way down at Tier 6. I really just wish he wasn’t on the slate at all, but I guess it’s hard to fault DK for including him. I actually think he’s worth a GPP dart if you play multiple lineups. Since it’s in Los Angeles, the narrative would be hard to ignore. Davis is perfectly capable of putting up 40 DK even in 25 minutes. Just like his teammates, Davis is strictly GPP.

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Collins, Middleton and Thompson are both players that I’m not terribly interested in for GPP. For cash games, they have safe floors with locked in minutes and roles. Collins has seen his ceiling lowered a little bit with the way Young has been playing lately, which makes plenty of sense. For Thompson, he’s really not more than the fourth option on his own team. The Milwaukee game is wildly attractive but if everyone is active for the Bucks, Middleton is likely not going over 40. You can pencil in 30 DK for all three but almost every other player has more upside, and that’s what I want from the last Tier.

With that in mind, I do want more exposure to the Bucks/Kings game. Bagley is getting boatloads of minutes lately and even entered the starting lineup. He’s also in the top 10 in post ups in the league over the past couple of weeks, suggesting he has a firm role in the offense. Hield on the other hand looks mighty attractive. Milwaukee gives up the most three pointers in basketball and Hield attempts 7.5 a contest, shooting 44.8 percent on them. During the first game, he scored 19 real points in just 24 minutes and has been locked into 30+ lately.

Ingram has really been scoring the ball well lately and gets a prime matchup against the Pelicans. We just saw this matchup a few nights ago and Ingram scored a tidy 38 DK points. That’s actually the worst game he’s put up since the All-Star break. Williams has been a bigger part of the Clippers offensive attack after the Tobias Harris trade, playing close to 30 a night when the game has stayed close. Utah has had their struggles with pull up shots on the year as well.

My Ranks – Hield, Bagley, Williams, Ingram, Davis(GPP only), Middleton, Collins, Thompson