EPL DFS Breakdown – Wednesday 2/27/19

After Tuesday’s ugly four-game EPL slate, we’re given a glorious six-gamer on Wednesday that features a ton of big club and even more studs!  This is going to be a little bit of a different breakdown compared to the norm, but still full of useful advice.  My EPL DFS Breakdown will help you dissect the slate and build a winning line.

The two early games on the slate feature a huge relegation battle between Fulham and Southampton, and Arsenal facing Bournemouth at home.  Arsenal is only the third biggest favorite on this slate, but their money line currently sits at -230, so they’re still substantial favorites.  This game features the second highest goal over/under at 3.0, so it could be a sneaky game stack.

Among the late kickoffs, the two top title contenders (Manchester City and Liverpool) get home matchups (against West Ham United and Watford, respectively) in which they are large favorites.  Something worth noting is the 3.5 goal over/under in the WHU@MCI game, an over/under that is not often seen in EPL games.

Also kicking off at 3ET, a Chelsea team in disarray welcomes Tottenham to Stamford Bridge, and Crystal Palace hosts Manchester United.  Currently, Chelsea and United sit as very slight favorites and both over/unders are 2.5.

From an injury perspective on this slate, there are meaningful names to watch.  First, Roberto Firmino was subbed out of Liverpool’s last game, and Klopp’s comments did not make it sound like he would be fit for Wednesday’s game.  This could push Daniel Sturridge or Divock Origi into a starting role at forward, or even Xherdan Sharqiri on the wing if they slide Mo Salah to a more forward position.

Manchester United was forced to make three first half substitutions over the weekend and are very banged up.  Marcus Rashford was injured, but with all three subs made, was forced to continue playing.  With Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez available, it’s unlikely Rashford will be rushed into action on Wednesday.  Jesse Lingard, Juan Mata, Ander Herrera, and Nemanja Matic are also already ruled out, meaning United must look to bench players and academy players for big roles.  It is not clear who will start, but this opens up a ton of value.

Players also out: Gabriel Jesus, Danny Ings, Callum Wilson, Anthony Martial, David Brooks, Dele Allli, Fernandinho, Aymeric Laporte, Mamadou Sakho, Dejan Lovren, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Antonio Valencia, Steve Cook, Phil Jones, Martin Kelly, John Stones, Kiko Femenia, Joe Gomez, Fabian Balbuena, Simon Francis, Joe Gomez, Winston Reid, Alfie Mawson, Rob Holding, Hector Bellerin

That’s quite a list, but with all of that out of the way, let’s focus on the healthy players.  With a limited amount of time to write this article, I will only be writing up two players per position.  Making a lineup solely from this article is going to be tough, but I just wanted to provide places to prioritize.  Tomorrow is going to be day where I tweet out important information and last minute advice in the hours leading up to lock with all of the injury news, so make sure you give me a follow (@vdray5).

Forwards

Sergio Aguero (WHU @ MCI, $13,500) – Sergio Aguero is coming into this game on fire with seven goals in his last four EPL games, including two hat-tricks (both 60+ FDP outings).  Manchester City is playing near the top of their game right now, and this is a plus matchup for their attackers against West Ham who concede an average of 1.5 goals per game on the road.  City are the largest favorites on this slate, and this game has a huge over/under.  City is going to be the chalk on this slate and playing their best goal-scorer is going to be a popular move in all formats.

Alexandre Lacazette (BOU @ ARS, $11,500) – The next obvious forward in a good spot on Wednesday is Lacazette.  I wrote him up over the weekend, and he cam through with a goal (32.6 FDP) against Southampton.  Bournemouth have allowed the second most goals on the road this season, so this is a great matchup for a goal scorer like Lacazette.  Not to mention, he’s coming into this game in great form with four goals in five games.  It’s going to be super hard to pair him with Aguero and find enough value to make the rest work, however, the specific pairing will likely be low owned and could prove to be fruitful if they perform well.

Also like: Whoever starts between Daniel Sturridge ($8,000) and Divock Origi ($7,500), Harry Kane ($12,500)

Midfielders

Raheem Sterling (WHU @ MCI, $11,500) – A popular, and probably smart, strategy on this slate is going to be to get as much exposure to Manchester City as you can.  Raheem Sterling Had been in a mini slump before scoring two goals against Chelsea in their 6-0 romp.  Manchester City is by far the biggest favorite on this slate.  Including Sterling in a Manchester City stack is going to be important.  West Ham United have been better defensively lately, but they are still allowing 1.48 goals per game this season. Manchester City playing at the top of their game and they can score against anyone.  David Silva ($9,000) and Leroy Sane ($9,000) are both affordable on this late and can provide nice exposure to Manchester city’s midfield.

Nathan Redmond (FUL @ SOU, $7,000) – Compared to Tuesday’s slate, there is actually some solid value at the MID position.  If you play EPL DFS regularly, you should know by now that Fulham bleeds goals.  They’re giving up 2.3 goals per game this season, and that number bounces up to 2.5 on the road.  Granted, Southampton have struggled scoring this year even at home, but I trust their attackers more than Fulham’s goal defense.  Without Danny Ings, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where Southampton’s production is going to come from, but Redmond seems like a solid point to start because he has the second highest goal+assist total (after Ings).  James Ward-Prowse ($8,500) is a solid play as well, but it makes more sense to save and roster Redmond or Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg ($7,500) instead.

Defenders

Calum Chambers (FUL @ SOU, $6,500) – I just harped on Fulham’s poor defense, but here I am writing up a Fulham “defender.”  I put defender in quotation marks, because Chambers really plays more of a midfield role.  In his last five games, Chambers is averaging 19.5 FDP which essentially comes out to 3x value on the dot.  Southampton’s defense has hardly been better than Fulham’s this year, so Chambers should have opportunities for shots on goal, chances created, and other important peripherals.  Paying up for a top defender on this slate is probably not recommended, however, with the number of studs at other positions.

Nicolas Otamendi (WHU @ MCI, $5,500) – If you didn’t max out your four Manchester City players already, Otamendi is a viable member of a City stack on Wednesday.  Otamendi has only started 10 EPL games this year, but he should make that 11 on Wednesday.  If you disregard his substitute appearances, his per game average jumps to 14.2 FDP.  Obviously, that’s still sub-3x value, but this is a matchup where a guy like Otamendi can thrive on peripherals.  A clean sheet bonus is likely for Otamendi as well.  Danilo ($5,000) is a solid pivot if you need to save the $500.

Also like: Joel Matip ($5,500)

Goalkeepers

Vicente Guaita (MUN @ CP, $4,500) – Guaita is my high ceiling GPP goalkeeper on this slate.  As mentioned, Manchester United is dealing with a crazy amount of injuries to forwards and midfielders.  They’re going to be forced into starting Lukaku and Alexis (neither of whom are in form whatsoever) with several bench/academy players in the midfield.  Palace have quietly been stout defensively at home where they only give up 0.92 goals per game.  United is still going to be good enough to get shots on goal so Guaita should get save points, and United’s lack of regular players could lead to them coming up short.  Guaita has big potential on this slate.

David de Gea (MUN @ CP, $5,500) – Let me run this one right back on the other end of the field.  Despite United’s injury bug, they’re defense remains mostly unaffected.  Palace are averaging 0.69 goals per game at home this season, which is despicable.  Their average does jump above 1 when you look at all games though.  United surely realizes that they’re lacking attacking talent in this game, so they will have to be tight defensively if they hope to win.  David de Gea offers save appeal with a safer possibility of a win and clean sheet bonus than Guaita.

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown for Wednesday’s slate.  I’ll be posting updates from now until lock on my Twitter account (@vdray5).