FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday 2/27 – KAT in the ATL
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 2/27
It’s time once again for the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
We are back to another big slate tonight as we have 11 games from which to choose our player pool. It can be a daunting task to narrow down your plays to say, 15-20 players when there are over 100 relevant NBA players to choose from tonight. You’re going to have to cross of some games and make some tough fades because even if you are making 150 lineups it’s never going to be an optimal strategy to try to get a little piece of everything.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
With so many games to choose from let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing our player pools.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look
Injury Report
OUT: Lonzo Ball, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Anderson, Robert Covington, Tristan Thompson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Chandler Hutchinson, Evan Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Aaron Baynes, Dwight Howard
DOUBTFUL: Ivan Rabb
QUESTIONABLE: Jeff Teague, Kris Dunn, Rodney McGruder, Otto Porter, James Johnson
PROBABLE: Justise Winslow, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Avery Bradley
Considering the size of this slate, this is not that many injuries to deal with. However, I expect that we will see some more names pop up with injury designations during the day today.
Vegas Info
***None of the teams in action played last night, so every team has at least one or two days rest.
***The Timberwolves have the biggest pace bump of any team on the slate and the third-highest implied total of the evening.
***There 7 games tonight with totals of 225 or more. Needless to say, there is going to be a ton of scoring on this slate.
***The Lakers actually have the highest implied total (122.3) for now, but we are missing the total in the Bucks-Kings game still and that one should be up there, too.
***The widest spread is 9.5 as Utah is a pretty solid home favorite against the Clippers. Meanwhile, the tightest spread is only one point in the Dallas-Indiana game (which is also the second lowest total on the board)
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
LeBron James (12000)
While the Lakers are in turmoil right now (and I, as a scorned Cavs fan am enjoying it just a little bit I admit), they still have a massive team total and are in an excellent spot for DFS tonight. Locking in LeBron as your cash game stud tonight makes a ton of sense. He’s still averaging nearly 60 FD points since the break and just dropped 64 on the Pelicans last week. Don’t over think this one, play LBJ and grab his solid floor and ceiling in cash.
Ricky Rubio (7000)
Rubio has two things going for him. He’s got one of the best matchups on the board for point guards against the Clippers and he’s in really great form lately. The amount of good plays on this slate is going to make these decisions on mid-tier players really important tonight, but I really like Rubio here at home and in a matchup, he can dominate.
Brandon Ingram (6900)
I normally would try to avoid too much exposure to one team on such a large slate, but it’s hard to find another 6-7k player with as much safety and upside as Ingram. He’s playing extremely well right now and has emerged as the Robin to LeBron’s Batman. He’s averaging 41 FD points in three games since the break which is a solid 6x value at this price and had 34 against the Pelicans last week in only 25 minutes.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Karl-Anthony Towns (11200)
Finally, we get to my cover boy, KAT! For the record I had him picked out as my top GPP play long before another famous DFS site chose to use him, too. But I suppose that means that I’m not the only one in the industry who is chasing KAT in this spot tonight.
He’s coming off a ridiculous 68 FD point game in which he posted 34 points and 21 rebounds against the Kings and tonight he gets just as good of a matchup against Atlanta. The Wolves are being paced up more than any other team on the slate and they have the third highest team total on the board! If Jeff Teague misses again, then that’s just the icing on the cake!
Marvin Bagley III (8000)
Bagley’s coming out party is well underway as he’s topped 45 FD points in each of his last three games. He finally cracked the starting lineup and has now played 36 and 37 minutes in his last two games. He’s more expensive than he has been at any point this season but you can still make the argument that he is underpriced relative to his ability and upside, especially in a good spot here tonight against the Bucks.
Buddy Hield (6900)
Two Kings in the same segment??? Yes, and you’ll see why when we get to the “Game Stack of the Night.” Meanwhile, Buddy makes a solid one-off play, too, if you’re not stacking that game. He’s been over 30 FD points in six straight games and reminded us of his ceiling two games ago with a 49 FD point outing against the Thunder. I like targeting the Bucks with perimeter shooters and there’s nobody on this slate other than Klay Thompson who is as much of a stone cold assassin from deep as Buddy.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Kyle O’Quinn (3900)
With Domantas Sabonis out, I expect Kyle O’Quinn to step into 20-24 minutes off the bench. We know KOQ is a per-minute monster and he should be able to make value pretty easily tonight, especially against a soft Dallas interior. But do you want to punt the center position – that’s the question.
Dorian Finney-Smith (5000)
“DFS” has been a solid DFS play lately (see what I did there?) He’s playing around 30 minutes and finding ways to get about a fantasy point per minute even though he doesn’t score the basketball much.
Maurice Harkless (4700)
I’m going right back to Mo Harkless tonight. He is getting some extra run with Evan Turner and doesn’t even need to score many actual points to make value due to his ability to rebound and rack up defensive stats.
Dirk Nowitzki (3700)
We have a Dirk alert!!! Old man Nowitzki has played 25 minutes in back to back games and has accrued 22 FD points in each. As long as he gets the start again tonight, I have no problem using him as a punt play on this slate, which doesn’t seem to have a ton of obvious value out there.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.
Point Guard:
Shooting Guard:
Small Forward:
- LeBron James
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Brandon Ingram
Power Forward:
- Marvin Bagley Jr.
- Thad Young
- Draymond Green
Center:
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Milwaukee @ Sacramento (no total or spread yet)
There are only two games tonight in which both teams are pacing each other up and this is one of them (Lakers-Pelicans being the other). I’m not sure where the spread will end up but I’m guessing that the Kings being at home will help keep it somewhere around 6 to 8 and the total should probably push 230 or more.
The Bucks get Giannis Antetokounmpo (12100) back tonight and he is an elite GPP play in this spot and solid pivot off LeBron who will likely be higher owned. He’s the first Milwaukee guy I click into this game stack build. Picking a sidekick for Giannis is always tough because the rest of his supporting cast is solid, but none of them have been really making value that often due to their prices.
My favorite “other Bucks” would have to be either Nikola Mirotic (5500) or Brook Lopez (6000). I’m not that interested in trying to figure which of the three-headed monster at guard (Bledsoe/Middleton/Brogdon) with Giannis back and I’m probably still a little salty about how Bledsoe burned me the other night. Back to the big men, Miro played his most minutes since joining the Bucks (22) and Bro-Lo has been really good lately. I prefer targeting the Kings in the paint with big men on most nights.
From the Kings, I really am locked in on Marvin Bagley III, Buddy Hield (6900) or Bogdan Bogdanovic (5700) – but not both together, and De’Aaron Fox (7700). Milwaukee is a solid defensive team but they do give up a lot of three-pointers and they are also vulnerable to big men inside. Fitting Giannis with one his big men and then Fox-Bagley-Hield is likely the route I’m going to go when building this stack tonight.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I have my cash game core in there with some solid value in Dirk and O’Quinn and then my favorite mid-tier plays, too.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are at least 1-2 tweaks that need to be made even on a day that doesn’t have much injury news we are waiting on!
PG: Ricky Rubio (7000)
PG: Chris Paul (8700)
SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic (5700)
SG: Delon Wright (5400)
SF: LeBron James (12000)
SF: Brandon Ingram (6900)
PF: Dirk Nowitzki (3700)
PF: Thad Young (6500)
C: Kyle O’Quinn (3900)
Next. NBA DFS Picks and Pivots - Wednesday, February 27. dark
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!