NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday, February 27
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday’s three game NBA DFS slate for many came down to where and how you decided to plant your flag as one small misstep likely meant the difference between cashing and not on a small slate. The Core 4 stars we outlined here yesterday from the Thunder and Nuggets delivered as promised with nearly 210 fantasy points as a group with 3 of the top 5 raw point plays on the slate coming from Nikola Jokic, Paul George and Russell Westbrook. One of the keys was which Knicks chalk you decided to eat – with both Mitchell Robinson and Damyean Dotson over 50% owned in GPP’s, you had yourself a great night if you locked in Robinson’s 54 fantasy points but felt the wrath of playing the Knicks in DFS if you went with Dotson who barely cracked double digits!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Wednesday’s 11 Game Slate Breakdown:
Before we jump into this massive 11 game NBA slate, this is normally the spot we drop our Picks and Pivots Free Roll but today we got a special little treat for you. Our friends at FantasyDraft have been kind enough to spread the wealth with a new Picks and Divots (see what we did there) $50 Free Roll for the Honda Classic to give you guys a shot to play PGA DFS risk free and our CPR crew has the slate broken down for you guys here with the link included – get in there and show PGA some love!
If you are playing on FantasyDraft tonight, you will notice this 11 game slate on the schedule has been shortened to only a 10 game slate on FantasyDraft as they have excluded the lone 7PM EST game with the Rockets and Hornets so there will be no mention of Kemba or Beard in this write-up. As such the 10 game NBA DFS slate will kick off 30 minutes later on FantasyDraft with a ton of options still to sort through!
Starting at the top you have two clear studs, both in elite game environments, that will likely determine your first step in roster construction with LeBron James ($19.6K) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19.4K) as the two highest priced plays on the slate.
LeBron, the Krafty veteran (see what I did there) gets a rematch with a Pelicans team he just faced over the weekend where he dropped 64 fantasy points and has now gone for 60+ fantasy points in three of his last four games with two of those coming in the three games since the All-Star Break. The Lakers have the highest total on the slate and are playing in the second fastest projected pace game on the docket – this feels like a 60 point floor game for LeBron and after losing to the AD-less Pelicans and the Grizzlies, “Playoff Mode Activated” LeBron needs to have a big game to snap the Lakers out of this funk.
Giannis is probable to return tonight for the Bucks and for all of us who played Bucks chalk last game out, well we appreciate you returning! The Bucks/Kings game is the fastest projected pace game on this slate and Giannis is hoping to repeat the 68 fantasy points he dropped on the Kings in their only other meeting this season.
In my opinion, I think locking in one of these two on FantasyDraft is a must tonight as the 60 point floor feels incredibly safe which even “just that” would exceed value for two players under $20K.
NBA DFS – Building Our Core:
After locking in one of LeBron or Giannis, the next move for me is building my core and the game that jumps out to me at first look is the Nets/Wizards – a game with a 236 total, a 5 point spread and the 4th fastest projected pace on the slate.
Now these teams have met three times already this season, but frankly I think you need to ignore those games as they all took place when these teams were in completely different spots. Both John Wall and Spencer Dinwiddie played in the previous three games, Caris LeVert played in none and all of this was before the Wizards trade deadline deals.
In the month of February, Washington is playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the league while the Nets rank 8th and get the added benefit of facing a Wizards defense that ranks second to last in the NBA in Def-Rtg.
D’Angelo Russell ($15.8K) leads the Nets in minutes (99) and usage (38%) in the three games since the All-Star break while putting up 49 and 59 fantasy points against the Spurs and Hornets in back to back games. Russell has shot the ball over 22 times per game with over 11 3PA per game since the break – both of those marks are top 5 in the NBA alongside guys like Westbrook, Harden and Paul George.
I say this all the time with Russell – he is one of my favorite plays when the game script is right as you are getting superstar usage and volume at a fraction of the price as similar volume studs.
Caris LeVert ($11.7K) continues to see his minutes tick up having played 20, 26 and 29 minutes in the three games since the break and has put up 35 fantasy points now in 2 of his last four games. I love the idea of using LeVert, but I do not love the price. At $11.7K he needs 35 fantasy points to pay off his salary so he seems to be priced for his ceiling right now. I am fine with him as a last man in play but he is not someone I would start your build with.
Jarrett Allen ($10.1K) is an incredible GPP pivot and correlation play with Russell in this game stack for a few reasons. First, with Russell soaking up so many of the shot attempts, relying on a scoring dependent secondary play like Joe Harris ($8.8K) becomes risky and frankly they would seem to negatively correlate with D-Russ. Allen on the other hand relies on rebounds/blocks and easy baskets and this Wizards team seems happy to oblige.
Since the break, the Wizards have played three games and been destroyed inside all three times – Cody Zeller (32), Damonatas Sabonis (41) and Pascal Siakam (67) have all had their way with the Wizards interior and Allen, who has double-doubles in three of his last four, now steps into that same elite match-up.
The Nets start Treveon Graham at the PF position but if you look at how the Nets have been closing games since the break – it has been De’Marre Carroll ($7.3K) playing with the starting unit down the stretch while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been a DNP-CD for two straight games. Carroll will likely be over-looked coming off the bench and he makes for a great salary saving option in this game stack.
NBA DFS – Game Stack with the Wizards:
One of my favorite 1-1 correlation plays on this slate is pairing D’Angelo Russell with Bradley Beal ($16.2K) as you get two players with 50-60 point fantasy upside in an elite game environment. Beal has a 33% usage rate in the three games since the break, playing 40+ minutes in every game and has gone for 50+ in every single spot. At $16.2K he needs 48 fantasy points to hit value and he has hit that mark in 6 of his last 7 games – Beal is a lock and load in all formats today.
As much as I love the GPP appeal for Allen n the other side of this game, how do you not swoon over what Bobby Portis ($12.7K) could do if he draws another start against the Nets here? Portis was in foul trouble last game which limited him to only 19 minutes of court time against the Pacers after getting the starting nod over Thomas Bryant – keep an eye on the news here, this game is one of the first to kick-off so we SHOULD have lineup confirmation before lock – if Crazy Eyes is starting (and frankly even if he is not), the upside is massive here.
Thomas Bryant ($9.3K) came in against Indiana and was simply unstoppable, going for 55 fantasy points on the back of 23 points, 12 rebounds and 5 blocks/steals – the issue is, before that game he was held under 20 minutes in every game since the Wizards made their deadline deals.
Trevor Ariza ($11K) and Tomas Satoranksy ($10.5K) feel very much like the same type of players here – guys who are locked into 30+ minutes and will likely get you around 30 fantasy points – solid cash game plays or “last man in” kind of guys. Not every player in a GPP lineup needs to be someone with massive upside – if you go with a LeBron/Russell/Beal trio – that is your high upside money-maker, so filling in around them with guys that will play 30+ minutes with paths to 30 fantasy points is not a bad route. Jeff Green ($8.8K) is basically a cheaper Trevor Ariza – a guy with a clear path to minutes with a 30 point projection seemingly high assuming his normal minutes.
So where does this leave us in a game stack – Beal is a must play and Portis becomes that if he draws the start again for the Wizards. Satoransky, Ariza and Jeff Green are all nice complementary plays in a game stack here.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative and should not be used as a plug and play lineup.
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G: Bradley Beal
G: D’Angelo Russell
F/C: LeBron James
F/C: Jarrett Allen
F/C: Caris LeVert
UTIL: DeMarre Carroll
UTIL: Jeff Green
Slate Overview: To me this slate is all about locking in a star (LeBron/Giannis) and game stacking around Brooklyn and Washington.
One thing I always do is try to map out a path to 300 and a path to 350 when I put together my first look builds. The concept is simple – on most nights the cash line sits around 300 with winning GPP scores around 350 – obviously this can fluctuate but by simple charting out a path to these scores you can get a feel for your builds.
Let’s go under the assumption that LeBron/Giannis is a lock for 60 and that Russell/Beal combine for 100 – that puts us at 160 with 5 players to go.
- To get to 300, that means the remaining five players in this build need to get you 28 fantasy points per player
- To get to 350, that means the remaining five players in this build need to get to 38 fantasy points per player
This is why I am willing to use the secondary pieces in the Wizards/Nets game because I think that they all have this 30-ish point potential tonight as long as my stars do their jobs.
All that being said – we have a 10 game slate – and although there isn’t any stand out value I see right now, this is the NBA and we know its coming, so be on the lookout for news and adjust accordingly!
Next. FantasyDraft PGA DFS Slate Breakdown - The Honda Classic. dark
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