Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host. Today provides many opportunities to exploit the posted number so let’s dive into the schedule.
Saturday was a down day for me and drops the overall record to 81-74-2. Hopefully we get back on track today.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
All times Eastern, here we go with the NCAA basketball best bets to win:
Penn State +2 versus Maryland, 6:30 pm
Both teams have been playing well ATS recently, with Maryland covering 4/5 and Penn State even better covering their last 7 in a row. Penn State has fared better in recent similar opponent match-ups and should handle Maryland at home.
Maryland is receiving 78% of the public bets as of this writing and I would expect that to continue based upon power ratings, so possibly the line moves higher, but I am backing Penn State tonight.
Texas Tech -17 versus Oklahoma State, 7 pm
This big favorite is not getting a lot of backing from the public as of yet, with about an equal amount on each side. OKST had been controlling the series since 2017 until 2 weeks ago when TTU crushed OKST by 28 on the road.
Now they come back home with no evidence that was a fluke. TTU has won and covered their last 5 games in a row while OKST lost by 39 at Kansas State as a 10 point dog. I think the path of least resistance is the right one here as TTU should be able to dominate early and hold off a back door cover.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Evansville Upsets SIU
Evansville +2 1/2 versus Southern Illinois, 7 pm
This series has been dominated by Evansville and I think that trend is important here and will continue. Evansville is 10-19 straight up overall, but their home record is 9-6. Earlier this month they covered at SIU, losing by 5 as an 8 point dog and also as a very bad away team.
Tonight they should have enough to take down SIU once again. Sometimes certain teams just play better against certain opponents and this is a classic case here. Overall SIU is a better team with better power rankings, but tonight belongs to Evansville.
Northern Iowa pick versus Loyola-Chicago, 8 pm
About 1 month ago UNI lost by 1 at Loyola as a 10 point dog. Now they are home and recent overall play suggests UNI is in a good position to continue their better than average play against Loyola.
Since that game, with UNI winning and covering their last 4 in a row and Loyola faltering, the power ratings have swung around and are now consistent with a pick line. However recent same opponent results still point to UNI winning this game.
Georgia +8 versus Auburn, 9 pm
Auburn is a large away favorite today because of the power rankings, but they don’t paint a true picture here. Auburn is 18-9 straight up but only 2-6 on the road, while Georgia is 8-7 at home.
With Auburn playing 15 home games and only 6 road games, they appear to be stronger than they really are on the road. The public will be on Auburn as laying 8 seems like a bargain, but I view this game as closer to the Tigers only being a slight favorite. Look for Georgia to hang tough.
Boston College +5 versus Louisville, 9 pm
The Cardinals have been slumping recently, losing their last 3 ATS. Meanwhile BC has been gaining momentum having covered 4 in a row.
The power ratings seem to favor Louisville at this number so I expect the public to back them, possibly moving the line higher during the day. However these 2 teams are going in different directions and I am going with the trend, taking the points.
SMU +4 versus Cincinnati, 9 pm
Both these teams have been a big disappointment ATS this season, even though Cincinnati is 23-4 straight up. Interestingly in their head to head series over the years, 1 team wins every ATS match-up within the same season.
Here SMU covered at Cincy earlier this month. Expect the public to back Cincinnati and come away disappointed.
Marquette +5 versus Villanova, 9 pm
This line opened Villanova 3 1/2 and has climbed to 5, but I am fading this move and taking the extra value on the dog. Even the power ratings have Marquette the better team, and I don’t see any injuries that would justify laying the favorite.
Marquette has won and covered their last 4 in a row while Villanova has dropped their last 3 straight up and ATS. I expect a hard-fought game that advocates taking the points.