DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Thursday February 28
Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DraftKings Tiers article! We have a much more manageable six game slate tonight so let’s get going!
Last night was a little crazy, especially with the Hassan Whiteside curveball getting thrown at us unexpectedly. This slate bring slightly less odds for mayhem since there’s fewer games, but at this stage of the NBA season anything can happen. The DraftKings Tiers slate bring us another chance to make some pretty fun combinations that would be highly difficult to pull off on the Classic format, so let’s go to work.
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 1
Choices – James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Karl Anthony-Towns
I don’t know why DK has to try and hurt me. I’m struggling to find a reasonable explanation as to why Nikola Jokic would not be included on this slate at all. There’s only six games and there’s really no reason why Jokic shouldn’t be included. He’s one of the fantasy elite and I hope as this style of game moves forward, that doesn’t happen again.
As far as our three choices, I’m tempted to just go with Westbrook and call it a day here. The matchup isn’t great on paper but the lack of Joel Embiid at the rim changing shots helps enhance things for Westbrook. He drives to the hoop at the third highest rate in basketball at 17.3 times a game and the lack of Embiid is massive. It doesn’t hurt that he’s been on fire lately, with the 52 DK points this past game being his low mark in the last 10.
I slightly lean Harden next although both he and KAT will be on the second end of back to backs. My main issue with Harden is both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace, so the game could be kind of slow. Not that we sweat the matchup a lot with Harden, but the Heat do allow the second fewest real points to shooting guards and he’s been a little cold lately.
Towns has been red hot while the Wolves have been missing Jeff Teague and it’s an interesting spot for him. The Pacers have been excellent against centers so far, surrendering the eighth fewest DK points to the position so far. In addition, Myles Turner has some athleticism which helps against Towns. Still, without the departed Jimmy Butler and Teague off the floor this season, Towns is averaging a massive 1.61 FPPM. Even in the bad matchup, he might be the second best option in the Tier.
My Ranks – Westbrook, Towns, Harden
NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 30: Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic drives the ball around E’Twaun Moore #55 of the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on October 30, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 2
Choices – Paul George, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Nikola Vucevic
The easiest and I think best route for cash to take here is to just pair up Westbrook and George. Matchups are totally irrelevant with him at this point of the season. Denver in the Pepsi Center is a tough spot and George still almost hit 60 DK points. He dropped 31 real points on them the first time around and there’s not much of a reason to think he can’t do it again. Pairing these two is costly in Classic but the floor is incredible and they both possess plenty of ceiling.
If you’re coming off of George, I think Vucevic is the path to take. Not only are the Warriors on the back to back, they have been hit by centers on the season. Vucevic should be able to put up some stats even though DeMarcus Cousins should be back in the lineup tonight. Cousins hasn’t appeared to have all his agility back and that could be an issue. The big man for the Magic is trying to drag them to the postseason and is averaging 2.7 offensive rebounds a game, meaning he has some nice put-back upside to rack up some quick points. I’ll be the first to tell you I’m not great at projecting ownership, but I assume George carries this Tier.
The Warriors are the least interesting, as we sit on Wednesday night when this is being written. A healthy Warriors team has been frustrating for fantasy purposes. I don’t wonder if this Tier changes tomorrow because I could see the Warriors resting someone in this spot. They did it to Boogie yesterday and could use a game against the Magic to do it to a different player tonight. If that happens, the Warriors jump up a notch. If it’s KD or Curry, the other one becomes near must play status with George and Vucevic being elite GPP pivots.
My Ranks – George, Vucevic, Durant, Curry
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 3
Choices – Ben Simmons, Rudy Gobert, Chris Paul, Donovan Mitchell, DeMarcus Cousins
If you can get a handle on Ben Simmons right now, my hat is off to you. In the three games since the break, he’s had one massive one and two others that are under 40 DK points. This past one was immensely annoying because he A. played the Pelicans(fantasy goldmine) and B. he scored 8 DK in the entire second half. He’s perfectly fine for cash but I think I’m looking elsewhere for GPP options since the Thunder have limited opposing point guards to the third fewest DK points on the year.
The Jazz duo are coming off into a back to back set themselves and walking into Denver. When choosing between the two, I’m siding with Gobert. The size the Nuggets can present at the 4 and 5 mean he’s going to have to play close to 30 minutes and Gobert has been perfectly fine on back to backs. Also, the Nuggets give up the ninth most points in the paint this year and Gobert ranks fourth in field goals attempted in the paint. Mitchell doesn’t get the best matchup and should see Gary Harris for as many minutes as Harris plays.
Deciding between Paul and Cousins seems straight forward to me. If you’re playing cash, I think you want Paul as he’s the safer bet for 40-45 DK points. The Heat play at a slower paced have given up the seventh fewest DK points to point guards but Paul is so involved in the offense that I wouldn’t be too worried here. Cousins is the GPP option because he finally played over 30 minutes the last time out and Golden State has nobody to match Vucevic down low. Since he didn’t play last night, I think we get another 30 minutes of Boogie tonight and he could score 50-55 in this spot.
Note – Ricky Rubio left last night’s game with an injury. If he’s out, Mitchell probably jumps to the head of the line
My Ranks – Cousins, Paul, Simmons, Gobert, Mitchell
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 4
Choices – Clint Capela, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Hassan Whiteside, Klay Thompson
Whiteside has already been ruled out so we don’t have to worry about him. I would also have Butler fairly low here, as his teammate is in a better spot. Butler has also not shown much of a difference with Embiid missing yet since the break.
Thompson was excellent last night and perhaps I gave him short shrift with Cousins being out of the lineup. Since I don’t expect that to be the case tonight, Thompson wouldn’t be someone I would chase. He has games where he scores 30 plus points and reminds everyone that he’s a good player but if the Warriors are healthy, it’s tougher to get on board. Orlando is just middle of the pack in real points and three pointers made against shooting guards.
For the first time all season, Kevin Love is among my favorite plays on a given slate. He played 28 minutes this past game and seems like his foot is perfectly fine. Now he draws the Knicks, who are fourth most against power forwards while giving up the seventh most real points. With all the bodies missing from Cleveland from what they started the season with, Love is over 36 percent usage rate and 1.56 FPPM.
Capela is dependent on the health of Kenneth Faried. These big men have dipped into the fantasy production of the other but Faried is not certain for tonight. He left last night and Capela had the big game I’ve been waiting on since he retuned, with 23 points and 17 rebounds. With Whiteside already ruled out, Capela could be the best option in the Tier if things fall his way.
Harris might draw the best spot of anyone not named Love. He’s been starting and playing mostly power forward and that is one of the two spots that the Thunder haven’t been able to guard all season. They’re in the bottom 10 in DK points, real points, assists and rebounds. In the three games since the break, Harris is dead even with Simmons for the team lead(of starters) for FPPM at 1.15 while Butler is at 0.94. That’s enough reasoning for me to much prefer Harris and Butler could see Paul George defensively.
My Ranks – Harris, Love, Capela, Thompson, Butler, Whiteside
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 5
Choices – Steven Adams, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, Ricky Rubio, Paul Millsap, Dennis Smith Jr., Mitchell Robinson
Adams is going to mess with my head all day long. I have basically avoided him for a large portion of the season, even in great spots. Westbrook and George dominate this team, and Jerami Grant is likely going to be the third best fantasy option most nights. However, the Sixers are down Embiid and the Majestic Boban. Adams is likely going to see Jonah Bolden through a significant part of this game. If he can’t get it done here, I’m not sure when he will again.
Gordon and Wiggins are easier fades from this group in my eyes. Both face very difficult matchups as Gordon should see Draymond Green defense and Wiggins sees the Pacers, who remain a tough defensive unit after bit of a rough patch after Victor Oladipo was lost for the season. Rubio might not play, as mentioned earlier and even if he does, I bet Utah will be cautious with him.
We’re left with two sets of teammates from two different teams. The guards of Murray and Smith are both GPP worthy. Murray can get hot with his shot and the Jazz haven’t always been the best against shooters. They sit in the bottom 12 in real points given up to point guards, which is where I like to use Murray. Smith saw his minutes drop to just 21 because Fizdale can’t help himself, but remained around 1 DK point per minute. If he plays more towards the 32 or so we’ve seen, the potential is enormous against a terrible Cavaliers defense.
Millsap has been a rock lately and the only thing that held him back last game was some first half foul trouble. I can’t even blame Malone for not playing over 30 minutes. When he was on the bench in the first half, the Nuggets built up a double digit lead. Robinson has some of the highest upside of the group, if he doesn’t get taken out of the rotation for no reason. With 30 minutes against a Cavs defense that shouldn’t have Tristan Thompson at the rim, he should double double with a few blocks yet again.
My Ranks – Robinson, Murray, Millsap, Smith, Adams, Gordon, Wiggins, Rubio
DraftKings Tiers – Tier 6
Choices – Draymond Green, Myles Turner, Thad Young, Larry Nance, Evan Fournier, Darren Collison, Kenneth Faried, Jonathan Isaac
Faried seems highly questionable to even play tonight so in a Tier with plenty of choices, I have virtually no interested in a limited minutes player nursing an injury. Nance would be a very nice GPP option but there is an outcome all over the board for him. With Love back up to 30 minutes and being a usage hog, it’s harder for Nance to score fantasy points quite as much as he could. Still, the Knicks are terrible so if there’s a game where Love and Nance can both go big, this could be it.
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You have your choice of Pacers tonight as DK put no less than three of them in this Tier for some reason. When you can jam in three Pacers and leave out the Joker, you just gotta do it. Regardless, Collison is the safest for cash like he normally is because he should be penciled in for 30 DK. Turner and Young both have some upside because Turner needs to help with KAT and Young gets a Wolves defense that gives up the 12th most real points. I think Minnesota might have a tough time guarding him tonight and he could be super sneaky.
The last three players all come from the same game and I think Green is the best option, though I can’t say I love him. Isaac is going to see either Durant or Green defensively, which leaves me very concerned he can get much done on that end. Fournier should see plenty of Klay Thompson, which also isn’t my favorite spot to attack. Green was terrible last night but the referees in that game didn’t help as they called so many fouls, players had a hard time getting into a rhythm. Orlando plays at such a slow pace I might avoid this trio.
My Ranks – Turner, Young, Nance, Collison, Green, Fournier, Isaac, Faried