FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday 2/28 – South Beach Diet

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 2/28

Welcome, NBA DFS addicts, to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.

Last night was really frustrating for me in that my “game stack of the night” was Milwaukee-Sacramento, which ended up going over 280 points in overtime but the Bucks chose to limit Giannis’s minutes and the Kings rookie sensation Marvin Bagley III left early due to an injured knee. That is DFS is a nutshell – variance can jump up and bite you on any given night.

But you have to trust the process! When we look back and evaluate our picks we can’t always focus on the results. We have to analyze whether or not we were on the right plays or the game and try not to focus on the bad luck that may have caused us not to hit that cash line.

My favorite part of DFS is you can be born again every day. It’s the reason I don’t play season-long fantasy sports anymore. DFS is like a puzzle, a sports sudoku of sorts, in that every day I look forward to the challenge of trying to come up with the right combination of players that are going to yield the most fantasy points. Let’s get back on the horse tonight and take something down, shall we?

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing down our player pools.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look

Injury Report

OUT: Hassan Whiteside, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Furkan Korkmaz, Robert Covington, Mario Hezonja, Kenneth Faried, Domantas Sabonis, James Johnson, Trey Lyles, Boban Marjanovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mo Bamba

DOUBTFUL: Isaiah Briscoe

QUESTIONABLE: Jeff Teague, Ricky Rubio, Luol Deng, Tristan Thompson

PROBABLE: Nene

Some big names and big men on this injury report today as the most significant injuries are all to power forwards or centers for the most part. Since a lot of these teams played last night keep an eye out today because we could see more names crop up on injury reports as teams hold their shootarounds this morning.

Vegas Info

***Playing second half of back-to-backs: Miami, Indiana, Minnesota, Golden State, Houston, and Utah

***The game with the highest Vegas total tonight (and it’s not really close) is the OKC-Philly game which is opening at 239. The next closest is Warriors-Magic at 226.

***The tightest spread comes from a battle of basement dwellers as the Knicks are three-point favorites over the Cavs.

***The Rockets are the biggest favorites of the evening as they are favored by 9 at home against the Heat.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown!  I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.

Clint Capela (7700)

With Kenneth Faried out tonight and Capela’s price dropping back down under 8k he’s an absolute lock for me. When you add in the fact that he won’t have to deal with Hassan Whiteside either that’s also a nice bonus. Capela had his best game since returning from injury last night with 52 FD points in a losing effort to the Hornets. As long as we don’t get any word of limited minutes or rest here today (Capela played 40 minutes last night) he’s going to be an elite play on this slate.

Bam Adebayo (4800)

Normally I would keep players under 5k in the value plays section, but I am going to put Bam in the cash core today. FanDuel didn’t have time to adjust his price and Whiteside and James Johnson both remain out meaning Bam and fellow frontcourt mate Kelly Olynyk (5500) are going to be chalky, but good plays again tonight.

Paul George (11300)

PG13 is the stud that I want to pay up for in cash games on this slate. The Thunder have an implied team total that is 7 points higher than any team on this slate. After an off game against the Kings, George bounced back in a big way with 60 FD points on Tuesday against Denver and he’s in a great spot here tonight against a Philly team that plays fast and lacks any rim protection with both Boban and Embiid out.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays

For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.

Ben Simmons (9000)

Ben was a bit of a disappointment in Monday’s game against the Pelicans as he only ended up with 34 FD points. The good news is that his price stayed where it is and tonight is arguably an even better spot to attack as the Sixers are going to be running up and down the floor all night in the fastest paced game on the slate. Simmons has shown he can succeed in this spot as he posted 20-14-9 against OKC earlier this season and you all know I like taking point guards against Westbrook and the Thunder.

DeMarcus Cousins (8600)

Boogie should return tonight after resting last night and has an excellent matchup against the Magic. This is where I ignore the stats a little that say Orlando has been a tough matchup for centers this season because I know the Boogieman can dominate Nikola Vucevic inside. With his minutes’ restriction off and having rested last night, we could see him play over 30 minutes again tonight and if that’s the case then I think he has some of the best point-per-dollar upside on the slate.

Dwayne Wade (6200)

All I want to know is how is Dwayne Wade still this good? And is he really going to retire after this season? If you haven’t seen his game-winning shot against the Warriors last night, you should go watch it now – I’ll wait. That shot was amazing, but what was more impressive was how efficient Wade was last night as he racked up 43 FD points in only 25 minutes on the floor. He’s been a tremendous fantasy player this year in his sixth man role off the bench and I’m on board with using him again tonight against the Rockets. Can Miami beat the Warriors and Rockets on back to back nights? If D-Wade has anything to say about it, they certainly can.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Jonah Bolden (3900)

With both Embiid and Boban out tonight, Bolden should be in line for a lot of minutes At near minimum price, he’s going to be one of the most popular punt plays on the slate and I know I will have him in my cash lineup for sure.

Dennis Schroder (5000)

I’m not sure why Schroder’s price never seems to go up. Like Wade, he is one of the highest usage bench players in the league and doesn’t need big minutes to produce. He’s an easy bet for 25 FD points tonight with the potential for a lot more in a good matchup.

Goran Dragic (4100)

Just watch for news from Miami on potential rest for Dragic or continued monitoring of his minutes. They’ve been cautious with him since he’s returned as he’s played 22 and 20 minutes in his last two games. He was hot last night, however, and dropped 30 FD points in only 20 minutes so I certainly don’t mind firing him up again here at this price.

D.J. Augustin (4800)

With Isaiah Briscoe looking doubtful and Jerian Grant not being very good at basketball, I think DJA is likely to get 30 minutes tonight in a solid matchup against the Warriors, who lately haven’t really been playing any defense at all.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings

Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will.  These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.

Point Guard:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. Ben Simmons
3. Jamal Murray

Shooting Guard:

1. Klay Thompson
2. Dennis Schroder
3. Dwayne Wade

Small Forward:

1. Paul George
2. Kevin Durant
3. Cedi Osman

Power Forward:

1. Bam Adebayo
2. Kelly Olynyk
3. Tobias Harris

Center:

1. Clint Capela
2. DeMarcus Cousins
3. Myles Turner

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Philadelphia (+8) @ Oklahoma City (239 total)

This is the game I want to target tonight and I’m sure it will be somewhat popular with only six games on the slate, but I don’t care. It has the highest total on the slate and it’s not even close. Plus, both teams are being paced up and it should turn into a track meet out there.

Having said all of that, it’s not that easy to build this game stack on FanDuel. Westbrook (11600) and Paul George eat up a ton of your cap space and I do think you’re going to want both of them if you’re stacking this game because you’re counting on Philadelphia keeping it close and the Thunder needing both of their stars to have big performances.

I mentioned Dennis Schroder in the value plays section and he makes for a nice third piece of the Thunder side of things, or a pivot off Westbrook if you wanted to pair him with George.

For Philly, it’s going to be Ben Simmons first and foremost. But then my second favorite play is Tobias Harris (7500), who showed that he can have a pretty big ceiling last game with 49 FD points and his best outing as a Sixer.  Jonah Bolden is a great source of value from Philly and J.J. Redick (5800) is still priced where we can profit off him if he has a hot shooting night.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.

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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I have my cash game core in there with some solid value plays like Schroder and Bolden. Paul George is my Thunder stud to pay up for based on position scarcity at small forward and I’m counting on Ben Simmons coming through with another big game against the Thunder here tonight.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are at least 1-2 tweaks that need to be made even on a day that doesn’t have much injury news we are waiting on!

PG: Ben Simmons (9000)
PG: Jamal Murray (6800)
SG: Dennis Schroder (5000)
SG: Dwayne Wade (6200)
SF: Paul George (11300)
SF: Cedi Osman (5200)
PF: Bam Adebayo (4800)
PF: Jonah Bolden (3900)
C: Clint Capela (7700)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!