NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, February 28
Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Process over Results. You hear that a lot from smart DFS minds and in the daily grind of NBA DFS sometimes we need to remember that when we look back at the night before and see the “Currently Winning $0” staring back at us. I was all in on the Nets-Wizards last night and watching that game shoot-out with essentially no defense on either end in the first half it seemed like it was the right move – well until the Wizards blew the doors off Brooklyn, got the starters benched and somehow Caris Levert managed 0 points – like he scored the same number of points as me, on my couch. The reality was, the thought process in stacking up that game and the stats behind it still made it the right process, the results just weren’t there. Sometimes, we have to remember that. But also – seriously Caris? Come on buddy.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Thursday’s Six Game Slate Breakdown and a FREE ROLL!
If you were like me and stacked the Nets-Wizards last night or played Caris LeVert, our friends at FantasyDraft want to make you feel better by bringing you another $50 Picks and Pivots Free Roll in an effort to win back some of those donations you made on Wednesday Night.
The first thing that jumped out to me on this slate is how much value we already have and how much more could be coming with the big spot to watch is the Golden State Warriors on the tail end of a back to back. Golden State rested DeMarcus Cousins last night due to load management and with a winnable game against the Magic tonight, any and all of Curry, Klay, KD and Draymond are at risk of a rest tonight!
Not going to speculate here at 5AM EST – but watch this spot for news.
UPDATE – Well, there it is. Kevin Durant is out for rest and just like that, this game becomes a really interesting pivot stack off the Sixers/Thunder which will likely be super popular. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson become really strong plays with the usage and FP/M boost and DeMarcus Cousins after a night of rest should step into an expanded role. The prices for the Warriors assume they are fully healthy so anytime one sits out, I think you can easily slide the rest in as they are priced for profit.
The overwhelming story on this slate is value, and I think this is where you need to start.
First the Utah Jazz have already ruled out Dante Exum and Ricky Rubio left last game with left hamstring tightness which puts his status in question tonight against the Denver Nuggets. If we look at the game flow from that game you will notice that Raul Neto ($6.2K) checked in for Rubio after his injury and played 11 of the final 14 minutes at the point. Earlier this season when Rubio went down it was Royce O’Neal ($6.5K) who moved into the starting lineup as Donovan Mitchell ran point and he was routinely playing 35 minutes a night and went for 33, 35 and 43 fantasy points in three of those six games Rubio missed.
The Miami Heat will travel to Houston without Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson which puts Bam Adebayo ($7.5K) squarely in play once again. Bam was nearly 75% owned last night in GPP play, put up 34 fantasy points and his price went up $100. Bam is a phenomenal value play but in GPP’s anytime you get a bench player that pushes for this kind of ownership (think Damyean Dotson the other night), there is always merit to playing the fade.
Speaking of the Rockets – they will also be on a back to back after playing Charlotte last night and they may be without Kenneth Faried and Iman Shumpert who were both ruled out during last night’s game with injuries. As a result of those injuries, the Rockets ran a tight 7 man rotation in the second half with Gerald Green ($6.4K) and Austin Rivers ($6.1K) the only bench players that saw run with Green putting up 28 fantasy points in 24 minutes.
The game of the night, the Sixers and Thunder, will be without Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic which puts guys like Jonah Bolden ($7.5K) who earned the start last game, squarely on our radar tonight and good for FantasyDraft for boosting the price before they released the slate. Even though Bolden drew the start, it was Mike Scott ($7.2K) who got the most minutes, playing 30 minutes off the bench including getting closing run in the 4th quarter with the starters.
The general take away here – there is a TON of value on this slate, and that is early on – in a sport where we know more will open up as the day goes on!
NBA DFS – Spending in our Core Build:
With so much value on this slate, spending up for the studs will not be an issue – the question becomes which ones do you want to prioritize. For me the answer lies in one game – the Thunder and Sixers, a game with a slate high 239 total, the two highest individual team totals with by far the fastest projected pace game environment on the slate – more than 6 possessions higher than any other game.
On the Thunder side – you just keep locking in Russell Westbrook ($19.6K) and Paul George ($18.5K) at these price points especially when they face a Philly team lacking any sort of interior rim protection tonight. This duo is averaging 70 and 60 fantasy points per game in the last five and with so much value, I just cannot make an argument to fade these two as long as the pricing remains under $20K.
UPDATE – Well, the Golden State resting was somewhat expected but Paul George being ruled out is a total slate changer. Let me be clear – you need to play Russell Westbrook – I do not care what it costs – he is unfadeable with PG13 out and the projected pace of this game. It should push Dennis Schroder into the starting unit as one of the best values on the board.
If you are going with the Thunder Buddies, then it makes all the sense in the world to run it back with the Sixers without Joel Embiid on the court. If you take Embiid and Boban off the court the last three games, although it is a sample size of less than 75 minutes (at most), it shows you some interesting data points.
Tobias Harris ($13.5K) is leading the team in FP/M at 1.32 while Ben Simmons ($15.7K) leads the team with a 26.3% usage rate. What really stands out though is Jimmy Butler ($13.4K) with a sub 20% usage rate and less than a FP/M with his high water mark the last three games being 35 fantasy points – at this price point, where he needs 40 fantasy points just to make value and has to deal with PG13 defense, he is the one guy I would leave out.
The one wild card here for me is Steven Adams ($12.5K) – a player who has only topped 30 fantasy points one time in his last eight games but with the Sixers being so thin up front, this has the potential for a monster bounce back game.
The last two games without Embiid, the Sixers have been destroyed inside – last game by Julius Randle who put up 19/14 and 50 fantasy points with the game before that allowing Jusuf Nurkic to go for 24/10 and 44 fantasy points with Enes Kanter getting 31 fantasy points in 21 minutes off the bench.
There is always the risk the game could go small, but if the last two games are any indication, the Sixers are playing these games straight up and allowing opposing bigs to dominate inside. The fantasy production has not been there for Adams but the minutes have – 30+ in 6 of his last 8 games and if the recent run of bigs against Philly is any indication, this has the potential for a big time bounce back spot tonight for Adams.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
This sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: Russell Westbrook
G: Ben Simmons
G: Raul Neto
F/C: Paul George
F/C: Tobias Harris
F/C: Steven Adams
UTIL: Bam Adebayo
UTIL: Gerald Green
Slate Overview: All the value and then pick your favorite studs – on a 6 game slate, it is really kind of that simple. Without knowing what Golden State will do the Sixers/Thunder game just stands out as clear spot to spend up on this slate and you can get 4-5 big name pieces from this game quite easily with all the value we have.
It may seem funny to just focus on one game like I have but let me spin it this way – of the 12 teams on the slate, 8 of them see projected pace decreases tonight with only one game (Sixers/Thunder) being where both teams see a pace boost – the top two projected pace boosts coming from the teams in the same game.
The process leads me to stacking this game and maybe tonight, the results will follow!
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