Good day and greetings from your NCAA basketball best bets to win host. Thursday shows a few possibilities where the line can be exploited so let’s see where the number is weak.
Wednesday the plays went 5-3 to push the overall record to 86-77-2.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
All times Eastern, here we go with the NCAA basketball best bets to win:
Michigan -12 versus Nebraska, 7 pm
Nebraska is having a lot of trouble on the road, getting smashed last away game at Penn State by 26 points as a 3 point dog. This team has the potential of getting blown out anywhere including losing at Rutgers 69-76 as a nine point favorite.
Michigan has been average ATS this season but should be able to dictate the score here. Let’s lay the favorite on the Wolverines.
Drexel +7 versus Hofstra, 7 pm
Hofstra has the edge in the power rating (11) but they have taken a dramatic downturn in their last 3 games, losing by a combined 44 points against the number. Drexel has played super at home covering their last 5 games in that venue.
A case could be made for the dog having a shot at an upset here the way events have gone for Hofstra – the number doesn’t seem to have caught up with the direction these 2 teams are going. I will be taking the points.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Detroit topples I-Purdue
Detroit +1 versus Indiana-Purdue, 8 pm
This is an interesting small market game that I believe holds an edge for Detroit. Both teams have been bad to very bad ATS wise this season, but the edge Detroit shows is the number of home/away games played.
Detroit has played 7 more away games than home this season while IUPUI has played more home games than away. The power ratings are consistent with a pick line but they are thrown off by this home/away factor.
Couple that with IUPUI losing outright their last 3 away games all as a favorite and Detroit looks good here coming home after a 5 game road trip. As of this writing Detroit is +1, but they can be played thru -1 if the betting turns the game over.
Santa Clara +7 versus Loyola Marymount, 11 pm
Santa Clara is on an ATS run covering their last 5 in a row, and beating the number in the 2 away games by a combined 24 points. Loyola has been up and down at home showing no real direction.
SCU will be out to avenge a late January loss to LMU at home as a small dog, and I think they can do just that, at least ATS wise. Santa Clara has fared well in their own division, having covered 5 in a row versus West Coast teams. In contrast, Loyola is now 0-4 against the number versus a poor team with a bad away straight up record.
Portland +21 versus St Mary’s, 11 pm
Portland surprisingly is on a small overall ATS run themselves and also have covered their last 4 away games in a row. While St Mary’s is a good team, they have failed to cover their last 3 in a row as double-digit favorites. Let’s take Portland here and ride this trend.
That’s it for today.