DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – Trust The Main Celtic
By Shaun Evans
DFS NBA – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.
We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, than they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!
For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.
This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.
Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 7 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!
DFS NBA – Games & Total
7 Game Slate – 7:30/4:30 p.m.
Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks – Point Total: 230.5
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets – Point Total: 228
Portland Trailblazers at Toronto Raptors – Point Total: 226.5
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – Point Total: 231.5
New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns – Point Total: 237.5*
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings – Point Total: 240*
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers – Point Total: 237*
* – Target Game if Looking to Stack
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays
Kyrie Irving vs. Washington
Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (57.85 for 6.5x)
Kyrie and the Boston Celtics have completely ruined the two past slates that they have appeared on and Kyrie was involved in one of them, scoring just 21.5 fantasy points. But don’t worry, he bounced back with 43.25 fantasy points and now gets to face the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards are giving up the second most fantasy points to the point guard position, giving up 50.48 fantasy points. Irving is averaging 44.4 fantasy points per game and 1.35 fantasy points per minute. Between Boston and Golden State, the two teams know how to disappoint after the All Star break but this is one that Irving should not fail in.
LeBron James vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary: $11,400 – Needs to score 57 fantasy points or more to exceed value (74.1 for 6.5x)
Now this is a very high price play for this slate but LeBron James has turned in three 60+ fantasy points and one 56.5 fantasy point game. He has truly turned it up since returning from the All Star break. He’s averaging 54.3 fantasy points per game and 1.55 fantasy points per minute. He does face a really tough match-up with the Milwaukee Bucks who play a great defense.
They are giving up 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist to the small forward position, plus 40.95 fantasy points per game. The Lakers obviously can’t win multiple ones in row or have great consecutive games but LeBron James is truly playing like “playoff LeBron” and we shouldn’t avoid him. His price is on the higher side but I’m still liking his outcome tonight.
Lauri Markkanen vs. Atlanta Hawks
Salary: $8,600 – Needs to score 43 fantasy points or more to exceed value (55.9 for 6.5x)
We do not have the best depth at Center tonight which isn’t a great feeling but Lauri Markkanen gets to face the fast paced Atlanta Hawks and is priced at $8,600 which makes this enticing. The Hawks are giving up 56.97 fantasy points to the position, allowing them to average 22 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game.
Markkanen put up 22 points with 6 rebounds in their last match-up with the Hawks also. He’s currently averaging 36.6 fantasy points per game and 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Honestly, I wouldn’t target any of the top centers tonight besides Markkanen, John Collins, and possibly Julius Randle.
DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Top Tier Plays
Bradley Beal vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $9,900 – Needs to score 49.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (64.35 for 6.5x)
Bradley Beal is on the slate ladies and gentlemen! Sad thing is that he’s almost pushing that $10k limit on Fanduel which is making him unappealing. He is facing one of the toughest defenses tonight, the Boston Celtics, but he’ll still make use of his playing time. He has played 41, 41, and 39 minutes since returning from the All Star break.
He has also scored 46, 35, and 31 points in those three games. The Celtics give up just 37.72 fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, allowing them to average 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. I understand if you don’t want to pay up for Beal but knowing what he has done and is doing, he’s still hard to fade tonight.
Kawhi Leonard vs. Portland Trailblazers
Salary: $9,500 – Needs to score 47.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (61.75 for 6.5x)
I’m assuming Kawhi Leonard will be playing tonight but my guess is as good as yours. We’ll know after lock. But on a serious note, Leonard is coming off of a 36.2 fantasy point game versus the Celtics, which was a disappointment due to their previous games. Now he gets to face the Trailblazers who are giving up 41.74 fantasy points to the small forward position, allowing them to average 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game.
Leonard recorded 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist in their last match-up on December 14th. He’s also averaging 45.3 fantasy points per game and 1.30 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 29%. Leonard should play in this match-up but like yesterday, this slate could be flipped upside down by 1 p.m. again.
D’Angelo Russell vs. Charlotte Hornets
Salary: $9,300 – Needs to score 46.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (60.45 for 6.5x)
D’Angelo Russell came out of the gates on fire versus Washington on Wednesday but cooled down, finishing with just 40.1 fantasy points. He gets another shot at the Hornets, who he just dominated on the 23rd for 56.7 fantasy points. Russell has turned up his play lately and it’s showing but he still has a couple of low games that can screw up a line-up.
But he gets to face the Hornets who are giving up the third most fantasy points to the shooting guard position with 43.54 fantasy points. They are also allowing them to average 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assist per game. Unlike the last slate with both, D’Angelo Russell and Bradley Beal, we can’t throw both of them in a lineup together without going major punting.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays
Anthony Davis vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $6,800 – Needs to score 34 fantasy points or more to exceed value (44.2 for 6.5x)
Anthony Davis is below $7k but who would have thought this would be happening, right? I know we should avoid him at all cost with him only playing around the low 20 minute mark and possible resting tag but I just can’t. Obviously with this match-up versus the Suns, AD could most likely be benched. AD has scored 32.75, 38, and 33.5 fantasy points in his last three games.
The Suns are giving up 48.61 fantasy points to the small forward position but that’s also in a full game which AD won’t see. This play is based strictly off of his price tag and you should throw him in only one lineup. Not two, not three, and not all of them but just one.
De’Aaron Fox vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $7,200 – Needs to score 36 fantasy points or more to exceed value (46.8 for 6.5x)
The Sacramento Kings just took a major hit with Marvin Bagley III being sidelined for two weeks, at most, and De’Aaron Fox will see a higher usage once again. He has had a pretty good start to the second half of his season, scoring 41.75, 41.75, 35.75, and 39.5 fantasy points so far.
He’s averaging 36.5 fantasy points per game and 1.17 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 24%. He gets to face a Clippers defense that is allowing opposing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds, plus 47.68 fantasy points per game. Fox hasn’t seen below 30 minutes in the past 10 games either so you know he’ll see the burn.
Kelly Oubre Jr. vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)
Since joining the Phoenix Suns, Kelly Oubre Jr. has had some good signs of success and improving. He kicked off the second half of the season with 41 fantasy points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers but then slowed down, scoring 23.25 and 29.5 fantasy points versus the Hawks and Heat.
He now gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans who give up the most fantasy points to small forwards with 44.12 fantasy points. They allow opposing small forwards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 rebounds per game. Oubre Jr. is averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game and .93 fantasy points per minute. He’s at a great price for an even better match-up tonight.
DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Mid Tier Plays
Nicolas Batum vs. Brooklyn Nets
Salary: $6,100 – Needs to score 30.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (39.65 for 6.5x)
Nicolas Batum is coming off of two huge games, scoring 39 fantasy points versus the Warriors and then 43.2 fantasy points versus the Rockets. Now he gets to go up against the Brooklyn Nets, shooting for three straight dominating performances. He has also seen an uptick in minutes to kick off the second half of the season with 36, 37, 37, and 41 minutes.
The Nets are allowing opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 40.18 fantasy points per game. Batum is a great play at $6,100 and with his minutes going no where but up right now, we should get production out of him easily.
Brook Lopez vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)
This play is depending on the monitoring and playing limitations to Giannis Antetokounmpo but even then, Brook Lopez has been playing pretty well lately. Since returning from the All Star break, Lopez has scored 26.1, 42.9, 37.3, and 35.5 fantasy points. He also saw 30+ minutes in three of four of those games. He’s averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game and .94 fantasy points per minute.
The Lakers aren’t the best at defending the center position, giving up the fourth most fantasy points with 59.10. With the center depth being pretty underwhelming tonight, Lopez is a great option as the main choice with his low salary price and high ceiling outcome.
Elfrid Payton vs. Phoenix Suns
Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value (41.6 for 6.5x)
Elfrid Payton is still at a decent price knowing that he’ll be seeing close to 30 minutes every game for the rest of the season. He has had three straight performances of 35+ fantasy points. Payton is the type of player that just collects stats in almost every column. He is averaging 26.5 fantasy points per game and .95 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 18%.
He gets to face a Phoenix Suns team that may be without Devin Booker tonight. The Suns are also giving up 48.86 fantasy points to the point guard position, allowing them to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Payton and BroLo may be the two must have plays for tonight as they can easily do damage with their match-ups.
DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays
Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)
Willie Cauley-Stein barely returned 5x value in the Sacramento Kings last match-up versus the Milwaukee Bucks but now he gets to face a weak Los Angeles Clippers team which we should see a better outcome for. WCS is averaging 30.3 fantasy points per game and 1.12 fantasy points per minute.
On the other end, the Clippers are allowing opposing centers to average 26 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Plus, they also give up the second most fantasy points to the position with 62.51 fantasy points. This is a great value play with all the signs pointing to Willie Cauley-Stein having a great match versus the Clippers.
Harrison Barnes vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $5,100 – Needs to score 25.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (33.15 for 6.5x)
Stacking the Sacramento Kings may end up being a very chalky stack and Harrison Barnes could be one of the chalkiest. Marvin Bagley III is out for two weeks and Barnes should be one of the bigger beneficiaries. He has logged in 41 minutes after Bagley went down and finished with 38.5 fantasy point, recording 15 points and 14 rebounds.
The Clippers also give up a good amount of fantasy points to the power forward position, giving up 49.42 fantasy points. They allow opposing power forwards to average 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Like I said, Barnes should get an uptick in playing time but if people see the value here, he may end up very chalky.
Tomas Satoranksy vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $4,900 – Needs to score 24.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (25.35 for 6.5x)
Tomas Satoransky isn’t the most likeable or sexiest play on any slate but I would throw him into the talk of low tier plays tonight. He’s priced lower tonight but $500 since facing the Brooklyn Nets. He’s averaging just 20.9 fantasy points per game and .84 fantasy points per minute. Beal is taking most of the attention and workload, leaving no run for others to excel value which isn’t a terrible thing by the way.
Now, the Celtics do give up the second fewest points to point guards with just 43.26 fantasy points but Satoransky won’t have the defense locking on to him. They also allow opposing point guards to average 21 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds. Not saying Satoransky is a must play but when looking for salary relief, he’s your guy as he’s pushing near 30 minutes per game.
DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Low Tier Plays
Jaylen Brown vs. Washington Wizards
Salary: $5,000 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value (32.5 for 6.5x)
It’s hard to tell which Celtics player are the right value plays but Jaylen Brown should see some good court time versus the Washington Wizards tonight. He has a very low ceiling tonight for 5x value with just 25 fantasy points. He’s averaging 23.1 fantasy points per game and .89 fantasy points per minute.
The Wizards, on the other end, are giving up 49.13 fantasy points to opposing point guards, allowing them to average 25 points, 9 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. If the Celtics starter get a good run time tonight then expect Brown to be pushed to the back for them sadly.
Maurice Harkless vs. Tornto Raptors
Salary: $5,300 – Needs to score 26.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (34.45 for 6.5x)
People should really stop avoiding Maurice Harkless like they avoid D.J. Augustin. He has scored 30.6, 36, 28.1, and 37 fantasy points to kick off the second half of the season. He only averages 22 minutes per game but he makes the best of the time on the court.
The Toronto Raptors are a pretty strong defensive team which may push people off of the Harkless train tonight. They allow opposing small forwards to average 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, plus 39.65 fantasy points. You can easily get away with this value play tonight for a very low owned percentage also.
Thomas Bryant vs. Boston Celtics
Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)
Thomas Bryant is a very, very hit or miss type of play but with these past two games, he has easily dominated. He put up 54.4 fantasy points versus the Indiana Pacers and then 30.5 fantasy points versus the Brooklyn Nets. He gets to face the Boston Celtics who have big men that are just like Bryant, hit and miss.
The Celtics are allowing opposing centers to average 23 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist plus 52.46 fantasy points per game. Bryant shot was on point on December 12th versus the Celtics, scoring 8 points off of 100% shooting, plus he had 6 rebounds. If you’re looking for a cheap option at center, besides BroLo, then Thomas Bryant is your next guy up.
Next. DraftKings NBA picks 3-1. dark
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