DraftKings NBA Picks March 1: LeBron's in playoff mode

HOUSTON, TX – APRIL 25: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets passes under the basket defended by Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first half during Game Five of the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center on April 25, 2018 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 1: LeBron’s in playoff mode

We have a strong seven game slate for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. Only two players top five figures, but they are both well over $11,000. We can afford both with all of the value on here, but should we? Is this a night to go with a balanced build? Let’s check it out!

Did you guys check out some NHL and PGA over the break? I did, and thanks to our advice right here at Fantasy CPR, I was able to add a little bit to my bankroll for the stretch run of the NBA season. Just because the NBA is back up and running doesn’t mean we need to ignore the friends we made over the break, right?

I had two good scores last night, but it became apparent early on that good wasn’t going to be nearly enough. The money line was even higher than last night at 302.75 DraftKings points. Jokic getting into foul trouble doomed my best lineup. Nance destroyed the other. I could have survived with either Harden or Towns, but didn’t have either one.

teamyawn took it down with 388.75 DraftKings points last night. He built with Harden and Towns and got massive value out of Will Barton, Winslow, Jerami Grant, and Bojan. He has this massive score despite Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick in the low 20’s.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 17: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics and Team LeBron drives the ball against Team Giannis in the first quarter during the NBA All-Star game as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyrie Irving predictably lit up Washington for 54.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and he is just $8,900. This looks like a huge bargain, and I almost trust Kyrie more than the top two options. Of course, the Celtics have mostly been a wreck lately, so there is some risk here.

I like Kemba Walker against a Brooklyn team that he has averaged 48.8 DraftKings points on in three meetings this year a lot more than Dame against a good Toronto team.

Truth be told, a red hot Trae Young could be better than all of the above. Young has three straight games of at least 30 points and ten assists. The only other rookies to have such a streak in NBA history are Michael Jordan and Stephen Curry. Yeah, it’s safe to say Young has arrived.

Honorable Mention:

I don’t want Lillard against Toronto, but I will consider Kyle Lowry on the other side. He’s a strong play at a mid range price. However, De’Aaron Fox is the exact same price and is playing a Clippers team that Fox has averaged 37.9 DraftKings points per game against in the previous three meetings. Fox is the safer play here.

It’s worth keeping an eye on Giannis and any minutes restriction he may have. However, the Lakers have come to their senses and put Rondo back in the starting lineup, so I’m not going out of my way to play Bledsoe anyway. However, if Giannis is limited, the price on Bledsoe is enough to tempt us.

I know, we all love Spencer Dinwiddie for what he did earlier in the year, but the Nets are playing everyone who shows up 20 minutes a game. I would much rather play a hot Elfrid Payton against a poor Phoenix team or Kris Dunn against Trae Young’s “defense.” There is zero reason to throw a dart at Dinwiddie.

Dark Horses:

I do like Rondo as a starter, but Tyler Johnson is the same price, and is starting for an offensively starved team with a much better matchup at the same price. Even the hot Patrick Beverley is a better pick than Rondo tonight. Johnson is easily the pick here if Booker is out though.

The RotoGrinders optimizer always loves Marcus Smart, so you know they will here against a team that Smart went for 30.5 DraftKings points against in the first meeting. We don’t have any huge values in this price range at the point tonight, but you can take a shot with the horribly inconsistent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if you’re desperate. He has good numbers against the Kings this year, but Beverley is playing so much better than SGA is seeing many less minutes than he was earlier in the season.

My pick: Young(PG), Payton(G); Young(PG), Payton(G)

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 09: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans looks on against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Smoothie King Center on January 09, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

I thought Brooklyn’s outstanding guard defense would slow down Bradley Beal. They kind of did. Holding Beal under 50 is an achievement lately. Boston could do that again, but I would still bet Beal gets high enough to top 5x value. 6x probably isn’t in the cards though, so we should probably spend elsewhere.

Like D’Angelo Russell. Russell has a 43.3 DraftKings point per game average against Charlotte this year. My only question is whether the return of Dinwiddie is going to slow Russell. It did when Dinwiddie was healthy earlier this year.

Jrue Holiday put up 46.5 DraftKings points on Phoenix earlier this year, and he may not have to deal with Booker this time around. The red hot Zach LaVine is also a very strong play against Atlanta. Strong enough that I’m comfortable moving down into the middle tier despite the solid options at the top. LaVine seems like more of a sure thing, and Holiday is close to that as well.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams has not been under 30 DraftKings points since February 9th, but I’m pretty sure we aren’t going to see him flirt with 40 tonight. Honestly, most of the rest of the middle tier is a trap. Buddy Hield has struggled against the Clippers this year. McCollum is way too inconsistent. Khris Middleton, despite the great matchup, is really only in play to me if Giannis is limited. The next SG I would even consider is Malcolm Brogdon, and he isn’t much of a GPP option.

Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged almost eight DraftKings points per game in three games against the Clippers than Hield this year. If you must use a Sacramento shooting guard, make it Bogdan.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Bullock remains a decent play just because he gets a lot of minutes, but he is often lost in LeBron’s wake. That isn’t going to chance enough for Bullock to have games like he did in Detroit. His upside is non existent here. You’re better off throwing a dart at Joe Harris.

I really like Mikal Bridges here if Booker is out. If not, the only really cheap option at SG is Landry Shamet, but he hasn’t hit value, even at this low of a price, since before the All Star Break.

My pick: N/A; LaVine(SG)

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 13: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the Toronto Raptors runs down the floor in the first half against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on January 13, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

By LeBron’s own admission, he has activated “playoff mode.” Well, we can only discern that he means an automatic 60 DraftKings points a night. This could be his most challenging playoff run yet, but this dysfunction is going to be pretty interesting to watch. So are LeBron’s 60’s.

Kawhi Leonard hit 5x value right on the nose at this price in the first meeting with Portland. He really should have been better than that. Remember, small forwards against Portland. It’s a thing.

Honorable Mention:

There is another steep drop at small forward, or is it? Price wise there is, but Otto Porter tore apart Memphis on Wednesday, and is a threat to do the same to a questionable Atlanta defense again tonight. This game is actually going to be pretty exciting with all of the good young players in it. There is a lot of fantasy goodness too. Porter is only part of it.

I really like Kelly Oubre against the Pelicans, especially if Booker misses this game. Danilo Gallinari looks solid against the Kings, but Oubre has far more upside. It seems the smart play is to find the money for Oubre.

Dark Horses:

Nicolas Batum continues to be a strong play for the money. I see him as more of a cash game play, but Batum has eclipsed 7x value three times in the last four games. That’s better than most in GPP lineups do.

Using the example of Batum above, I have no idea why people are still playing roulette with Harrison Barnes. He looks like a good play against the Clippers, but I would still much rather use Batum. You could also take a shot with Kenrich Williams, but he has been noticeably cold since the break.

Marcus Morris dominated Washington in the first meeting, but he also played 39 minutes in that game. He will see significantly less than that tonight. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Morris flirt with 30 DraftKings points.

Evan Turner is still out, which means Mo Harkless is once again one of the best value plays around. Harkless has at least 27 DraftKings points in four straight games, and is still only $3,800!

My pick: James(SF), Batum(SG), Barnes(F), Harkless(PF); Porter(SF), Batum(F), Harkless(UTIL)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – FEBRUARY 25: Lauri Markkanen #24 of the Chicago Bulls drives around Ersan Ilyasova #77 of the Milwaukee Bucks at the United Center on February 25, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

We know that Giannis is going to play, but will he be on a minutes restriction again? At the very least, I would expect the Bucks to rest him as soon as this starts to get out of hand. I simply can’t trust Giannis for this high of a price, even though it’s very tempting against the Lakers.

I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Lauri Markkanen get close to the output of Giannis for $3,000 less. Markkanen has four straight double doubles, and Atlanta doesn’t really have anyone that can stop him either.

Honorable Mention:

John Collins put up a staggering 53 DraftKings points on the Bulls the first time around. We have seen games like this from Collins from time to time. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another monster here. The only difficult question is whether to play Markkanen or Collins.

Pascal Siakam continues to put up some monster numbers, even in unfavorable matchups. That is where we find ourselves tonight. All of the conventional wisdom says to pass on Siakam, but he just ravaged a good Celtics front for 46 DraftKIngs points and has not been below 35 since the break. We can certainly make a case for Siakam here.

Kyle Kuzma is an excellent Robin to Batman in L.A., but he has only topped 38 DraftKings points once since the end of January. We should be able to find more upside elsewhere.

Dark Horses:

Nikola Mirotic exploded on the Kings on Wednesday, but don’t be fooled by that. It was an overtime game, and Giannis was on a strict minutes limit. I would rather spend the same amount on the upside of Jabari Parker or Marvin Williams.

There are lots of mines in the value at power forward, but Darius Miller has 47.25 DraftKings points over the last two games and gets Phoenix tonight. If you need to go really cheap, you can do much worse.

Harry Giles was a beast after Marvin Bagley left on Wednesday. With Bagley out for a couple of weeks, it’s going to be between Giles and Barnes for the minutes vacated by Bagley. I would much rather roll with Giles for near the minimum.

My pick: N/A; N/A

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 02: Julius Randle #30 of the New Orleans Pelicans pushes D’Angelo Russell #1 of the Brooklyn Nets while attempting to pass the ball during the first quarter of the game at Barclays Center on January 02, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Julius Randle is going to eat Ayton. He put up 48.75 DraftKIngs points in the first game against the Suns. This is becoming Randle’s team now. We see it every game. On the flip side of this, I do like Deandre Ayton here as well. Ayton put up 39 DraftKings points the first time around, and comes at a reasonable price.

Jusuf Nurkic put up 38.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting against Toronto, but that was before the arrival of Gasol. I don’t really trust that Nurkic can do it again, but he was only 4-15 from the floor in that game. If Nurkic makes half his shots, he’s going to fly past 6x value.