DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Friday March 1

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DraftKings Tiers article! We have seven games on the docket for this evening as we flip the cleanser into March!

I have to be honest right off the top, I think DraftKings Tiers made a very silly error on this slate. We have Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James squaring off in Los Angeles….and neither are on the Tiers slate. That’s a very disappointing decision for the second night in a row and one I simply can’t fathom. Hopefully we don’t have to see this too many times moving forward. The slate itself is super interesting without those two studs. I tend to think that Tier 1 should be more Tier 2 players so the options are a little harder to decipher.

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 1

Choices – Kawhi Leonard, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving

We have two players in the same game and of the two, I think that I would lean with Kyrie. It just comes down to a better matchup and the Celtics really need to put the Band-Aid on this losing skid before things get any worse. The Wizards have taken over giving up the most real points to point guards on the season, which is attractive for Irving. Also, Washington is in the bottom six of field goal percentage allowed and field goal attempts within five feet. Right around 30 percent of all of Irving’s field goal attempts have come from within five feet.

For Beal’s side, it is a much tougher matchup on paper but the Wizards are desperate if they want to make the playoffs. Beal can sometimes overcome bad matchups just through sheer volume alone because he’s on the court for roughly 37 minutes a night and has a 31.1 percent usage rate. We did just see Boston get tagged by Damian Lillard for 50+ DK points so Beal could be the lowest owned of the group with similar upside.

It’s been a pretty rare occurrence, but Leonard might just be the best option in Tier 1. He’s been a little bit of a tough player to nail down for me personally, as I’ve seen plenty of snowflakes by his name at the end of the night. Usually when the Raptors are healthy, I pass over Leonard pretty quickly but tonight is the exception. Portland has been destroyed by wing players all season long and I’ve tried to target that matchup constantly. They rank in the bottom seven for DK points, real points and rebounds on the year.

My Ranks – Leonard, Irving, Beal

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 2

Choices – Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, D’Angelo Russell, Lauri Markkanen

This Tier is going to be hard to pick because I think the choices are pretty close. The last player that I would feel comfortable with is Russell. With the return of Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert still being a part of the offense(usually) and the coaching aspects of Kenny Atkinson, the floor is lower than it has been lately for Russell. There’s still upside with the young guard but that chances of that are slimmer.

It’s a little bit of a similar spot with Markkanen. He could destroy in this matchup against the ultra high-paced Hawks but having Otto Porter and Kris Dunn back in the lineup don’t do him any favors either. I feel safe with Markkanen since Atlanta gives up the most third most real points and third most made three pointers to power forwards this year. That’s a good mixture for Markkanen.

I whiffed on Lillard the last time out against Boston and he doesn’t find himself in a better spot on paper. Toronto has been tough on point guards so far this season, as they allow only the sixth fewest DK points on the year. What is interesting is that they’re barely inside the top 10 in real points allowed. That’s the bread and butter for Dame and they are average as far as assists coming from guards as well.

My favorite is Walker, in part because he sees a Nets team that has allowed him an average of 32 real points in three games this season. They haven’t had an answer and there’s been a major split to Walker’s season – with and without Cody Zeller. That seems weird, but when Zeller has been off the floor, Walker drops to around 1.10 FPPM. When Zeller is active and able to help in the pick and roll game. That helps Walker’s assist potential with Zeller feasting on the weak Nets interior defense.

My Ranks – Walker, Markkanen, Lillard, Russell

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 3

Choices – Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, Zach LaVine, Jusuf Nurkic, Trae Young 

This Tier has a narrow focus with the options at hand since we have a set of teammates and a set of players from the same game. The one player that doesn’t exactly fit is Nurkic. The Raptors present a unique challenge against centers now because they can throw either Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol at opposing big men, with it likely being a mix of both. I don’t love Nurkic here with Toronto being inside the top 10 in paint points allowed.

I’ve been fading the Pelicans these past couple of games to my detriment, because it appears that the “minutes limit” for Holiday is a load of malarkey. He’s still playing a ton and it’s hard not to like him against a Suns team that has given up points all over the place this year. 32-34 minutes from Holiday would be perfectly fine. Since Anthony Davis isn’t playing more than about 20-22 minutes a night, that has given Randle a bigger role. He destroyed the Lakers who decided to play small ball this past game and the Suns are nothing scary down low.

LaVine does stand out a little bit because he’s a good transition player and the Hawks lead the league in turnovers by a significant amount. Between that and the pace this game should be played at, the opportunities for the Bulls guard to rack up some easy buckets are very high. However, I’m very much liking the idea of riding the Young train yet again. He’s just been fantastic these past 10 games or so and the defense that allows the eighth most real points and DK points to point guards can slow him down. Unless he has a rookie hiccup, Young could fall between 50-60 DK again.

My Ranks – Young, LaVine, Randle, Holiday, Nurkic

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 4

Choices – Kyle Lowry, De’Aaron Fox, John Collins, Deandre Ayton, Lou Williams, Pascal Siakam 

The Raptors players fall on the opposite end of the spectrum for me. Lowry is just a player that I almost never use when the team is healthy and that will continue tonight. There’s safety there, but many of the other players in this Tier have some safety and actually have some aggression on the floor for ceiling as well. Speaking of ceiling, I think Siakam is super sneaky in GPP. We loved Leonard for the matchup against the Blazers, but Siakam sees a very similar matchup. He’s typically not a player I use when Lowry and Leonard both play, but this could be an exception.

I used a ton of Jonas Valanciunas two nights ago as a way to target the Bulls paint defense and that din’t pay off at all. However, the fact is Chicago is still in the bottom half of the league in pain points and rebounds allowed. That’s a great thing for Collins, because he’s in the top 10 in the NBA in paint touches per game. Ayton also would see a pace up spot against the Pelicans and they aren’t playing Davis, making the path a little easier for Ayton to have a big game if he sees a lot of Randle.

The choice between Fox and Williams in the same game is difficult to say the least. This game could be argued as the game of the night and the two teams play at warp speed paces. Fox doesn’t even have the advantage in minutes anymore, because Williams is playing so much for the Clippers lately. He’s also owning a massive usage over 32 percent off the bench, and he’s one of the lead offensive players for Los Angeles at this point. Fox likely comes with a slightly more stable floor, but Williams has the higher ceiling as it just suits his game so incredibly well. Fox also sees the Clippers defense that has been scorched by point guards for the third most DK points. To this point, this is the hardest pick of any of the four Tiers we’ve talked about.

My Ranks – Williams, Fox, Collins, Siakam(GPP), Ayton, Lowry

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 5

Choices – Anthony Davis, Khris Middleton, Buddy Hield, Eric Bledsoe, Al Horford, Montrezl Harrell, Brandon Ingram, Otto Porter

Let’s get the Lakers and Bucks pieces out of the way first. I’m having trouble with this game because I have two mindsets. One, the two teams keep it within reach and both teams play at such a high pace, Middleton, Bledsoe and Ingram could all have pretty big games. Part of that discussion hinges on how many minutes Giannis Antetokounmpo plays. If he’s full go, I think the Lakers might get run right out of the gym which could lower the appeal for these three. The jury is kind of out with these players, but I think they all fall about middle of the pack regardless.

Anthony Davis is only going to play 20 minutes, but my goodness could he still eat against this Suns front court. I tend to want to chase the bigger potential players here, but Davis does present a small amount of intrigue. He might be best reserved for the Classic setting at just $6,800, however. Al Horford is steady as they come and is a solid cash option, especially against the Wizards. That game only opened at a nine point spread but I do have some blowout concerns. Boston needs this game, because everything turns into giant drama with this team.

The GPP portion has to be Hield and Porter. If you played a very low owned Hield the past slate he was on, you know that 50 DK point upside lurks every game. Some of that came in overtime but it doesn’t change the fact he’s a lethal shooter in a very uptempo game between two teams that are fighting for the eighth seed. The Clippers are in the top 10 in three point field goal percentage allowed but that doesn’t make me too afraid. Porter against Atlanta with the minutes he’s been playing as a Bull is intriguing too. One or two Bulls are going to have massive games, it’s just a matter of which one.

The player I have my eye on most is Harrell. Yes, I’m a sucker for him but he draws an incredible matchup against a Kings team that just lost Marvin Bagley and are now even thinner up front. They don’t have a player to really guard Trez here and he should be able to dominate in the paint.

My Ranks – Harrell, Hield, Porter, Ingram, Bledsoe, Middleton, Horford, Davis

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 6

Choices – CJ McCollum, Danilo Gallinari, Kyle Kuzma, Jayson Tatum, Trevor Ariza, Bobby Portis, Kelly Oubre, Cody Zeller

There’s two players that I simply don’t play this year because the results are almost never that great and that’s McCollum and Tatum. They are complimentary players when the team is fully healthy and that’s the case tonight. They are fine options for cash but not the picks for GPP in my eyes. The same could kind of be said for Gallinari right now. With Harrell and Williams running the show in LA, Gallo is the third option though the game environment does give him a little bump. He could be the lowest owned Clipper of your options tonight if looking to be different in that game.

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Kuzma is tough to project because I don’t know how Luke Walton is going to play this one. If he runs things small again and puts Kuzma at the five, I want nothing to do with him. Between Brook Lopez having a big size advantage and blocking a ton of shots and then having to deal with Giannis flying into the paint at will, Kuzma would be in a tough spot playing center. Oubre is also kind of dependent. If Devin Booker is out, he could be the chalkiest option of this Tier. If Booker plays, Oubre still has a ton of potential against a dreadful defensive team of the Pelicans.

The last trio contains two teammates in Portis and Ariza. Portis represents the ceiling play since he’s very efficient and could give Boston a problem in this one. The Wizards have been hard to predict with his minutes, so the floor is real. Ariza is almost always on the floor and just walks into production. I think my favorite is Zeller, who has been spiked at 32+ minutes for the past few games. One of the best bets in NBA DFS is to use big men against the Nets. That’s been a thing for a while now and Zeller has been highly productive in his past few games. This is a perfect combo of safety and ceiling of the Tier.

My Ranks – Zeller, Oubre, Portis, Ariza, Gallinari, Kuzma Tatum, McCollum

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