English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

After Matchday 28 on Tuesday and Wednesday, English Premier League play continues this weekend with our normal 6-game slate on Saturday.  The title race is starting to really heat up between Liverpool and Manchester City, as is the relegation battle at the other end of the table.  Since we’re back to our most common slate format, I’ll continue my English Premier League DFS Breakdown in normal style.

Perhaps the most important game on this slate is Manchester City @ Bournemouth, where City currently sit as significant 2.0 goal favorites.  This game has a goal over/under set at 3.5.  This is one of the higher expected goal totals of the season but remember that the over/under was also set at 3.5 for City’s midweek game, and that game only saw one goal.

Manchester United at home against Southampton and Wolverhampton at home against Cardiff follow City as the two largest favorites in Vegas.  However, the goal over/under is set higher in the Manchester United game (3) than in the Wolverhampton game (2.5).

The other three games on the slate are none too interesting really.  West Ham welcomes Newcastle in a matchup of teams at least six points above the relegation zone.  Crystal Palace travel to Burnley, and in a game that even die-hard soccer fans might not even care to watch, Brighton hosts Huddersfield.

From an injury perspective, it doesn’t look like Manchester United will be getting any of their starting midfielders back.  However, they handled what could’ve been a difficult matchup away against Palace fairly safely with a 3-1 win on Wednesday.  It does seem like Marcus Rashford will make his return after a one game absence, which could potentially push Alexis Sanchez back to the bench after a disappointing game on Wednesday.

After fully training with the team on Thursday and Friday, Gabriel Jesus was deemed fit to play on Saturday.  With the number of minutes Aguero has played recently, I’m sure Guardiola will look to get him some rest as soon as Jesus is fit.  Something I feel like I also need to mention with City is Fernandinho’s absence.  It’s been noted that City is a different team with him off the pitch, and their 1-0 win in a game that is normally a blow out could be more evidence.  Fernandinho remains out Saturday.  Aymeric Laporte will not play Saturday for City either.  Danilo will likely step into his spot providing some value on defense.  Benjamin Mendy could also make his long-awaited return after injury, but FanDuel has wiped out a chance at good value by raising his price to $6,000 already.

Brighton’s Pascal Gross suffered a hamstring injury during the week and has already been ruled out.  This is a hit to Brighton’s attack in a home game against last place Huddersfield where they could really use a full three points.

Notable players that remain out: Danny Ings, Callum Wilson, Anthony Martial, Jesse Lingard, Juan Mata, Nemanja Matic, Fernandinho, Victor Camarasa, Ander Herrera

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

Target Forwards

Raul Jimenez (Cardiff @ Wolverhampton, $11,000) – I wrote up Jimenez and play him in my personal lineup on Tuesday, and he burned me.  Wolverhampton had a wondrous matchup against last place Huddersfield and lost.  Now that they’re back on home turf, I expect the Wolves to handle Cardiff City on Saturday.  Prior to his complete dud, Jimenez was had scored four goals in his last five games in addition to 1.0 shots on goal per game and 1.8 chances created per game.  He’s set up well for a nice fantasy game, and assuming Jimenez can get back on track against a Cardiff team that is allowing 1.85 goals per game on the road, I’m hoping for a goal at low ownership.

Marcus Rashford (Southampton @ Manchester United, $11,000) – Rashford gets hurt one game and misses the next game and boom…his price drops $2,000.  This is a great matchup for United attackers.  Southampton is weak on defense especially on the road, and Manchester United continues to roll under Ole Gunnar.  Like Jimenez, I expect Rashford to be low owned due to his ugly game log recently.  However, Rashford got hurt in one of those three low scoring games and he didn’t start the other two.  If you were following along a few weeks ago, you’d know that before his three poor games, Rashford had scored six goals in an eight-game stretch.  Assuming Rashford is fully healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t return to his recently goal-scoring ways in this plus matchup.

UPDATE:  Ole Gunnar says that Rashford is fully fit to face Southampton.  You can check here for more news on the plethora of United’s injuries: 

Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace @ Burnley, $10,500) – Week after week, I was looking at Zaha (one of my favorite non-Chelsea players) and getting disappointing with his performances because it meant I couldn’t write him up.  However, Zaha seems to finally be out of his four-month slump.  He had a difficult matchup midweek against Manchester United, but before that, he had four goals in three games while also averaging 2.0 shots on goal per game and 2.0 chances created.  On Saturday, Zaha faces a Burnley team that have given up 4th most goals this season.  The only thing holding me back from going all in here is that Palace is on the road.  Because of that, I am labeling Zaha as another low owned GPP pick on this slate.

Value Forwards

Glenn Murray (Huddersfield @ Brighton, $8,000) – Glenn Murray provides some of the best value at the forward position on this slate.  Although his goal production has dipped, Murray has had some tough matchups lately.  This is not one of those.  He takes on a last place Huddersfield side that allows 2.15(!) goals per game on the road this year.  Not only that, but Murray has scored 70% of his EPL goals at home this year.  This is a great matchup for Murray to get back to his early season form.

Josh King (Manchester City @ Bournemouth, $9,000) – Without Callum Wilson on the field, King has done a really nice job filling in at striker.  King has four goals in 2019, and he is establishing a decent fantasy floor with his peripherals (namely, shots on goal and chances created).  Scoring on Manchester City is going to be a tough task, but the goal over/under is high in this game, and if anyone from Bournemouth has a solid shot and scoring it’s King.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

Target Midfielders

Paul Pogba (Southampton @ Manchester United, $10,000) – Like I mentioned above with Rashford, this is a great matchup for United especially the way they’ve been scoring lately.  Southampton give up 1.79 goals per game on the road, and I expect United to raise that average with multiple goals on Saturday.  Since Christmas, Pogba is averaging 35.3 FDP per game (11 games).  The fact that he’s still $1,000 cheaper than Sterling is criminal.  He has shown a safer floor recently and basically more upside as well.  He’s my top midfielder to pay for.

Luka Milivojevic (Crystal Palace @ Burnley, $9,000) – Writing up two Palace attackers in an away game is risky, but there’s reason.  The majority of Milivojevic’s fantasy value comes from his stellar ability to create chances.  Even in a difficult matchup against United last time out, he was still able to create five chances and score 24.1 FDP.  This is going to be a much easier matchup against a porous Burnley defense.  Milivojevic has a safe floor on this slate, and his PK duties always give him big upside.

Leroy Sane (Manchester City @ Bournemouth, $8,500) – Just a few weeks ago, Sane’s price was well into the 5-digit range.  He hasn’t done much of anything since, warranting this price drop.  Any time you can get a player the caliber of Sane for this cheap, he’s worth consideration in GPPs.  Here’s a quick reminder that City are the biggest favorites on the slate and getting cheap exposure to their attacking group is important.

Value Midfielders

Miguel Almiron (Newcastle @ West Ham, $6,500) – I wrote Almiron up in my midweek article as well, and even though he didn’t play great with only 12.3 FDP, I’m not afraid to go right back to him.  Almiron is a young, active, play-making midfielder looking to make an impression in the EPL.  He hammered away on a 10-man Huddersfield team for 6 chances created and 3 shots on goal.  While things came a little tougher this week, a matchup with West Ham is another solid place where Almiron can collect enough peripherals to hit 3x value.  There aren’t many players this cheap who have as good of scoring odds as Almiron does.  He’s one of the best cheap midfielders on the slate.

Anthony Knockaert (Huddersfield @ Brighton, $6,500) – With Pascal Gross out, Knockaert will step into a more important attacking role on Saturday.  I harped on this before with Murray, but I’ll do it again.  Huddersfield is in last place and they’re down for the count.  They’ve given up 3rd most away goals this year, and I only expect that number to increase in this game.  Knockaert has a good chance to exceed 3x value when you consider matchup and his role without Gross on the field.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

Target Defenders

Ashley Young (Southampton @ Manchester United, $6,000) – Young has quietly had himself a nice month of February averaging 26.7 FDP in his three games.  This is another plus matchup for the wingback where he can do damage up the flanks.  Young is a way to get good attacking upside from a defender without having to break the bank.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Crystal Palace @ Burnley, $5,500) – After two weeks on the shelf with an injury, Wan-Bissaka is fit again according to Roy Hodgson.  The Palace manager also spoke very highly of his young defender.

He leads the league in tackles made and is also top five in interceptions.  Those two peripheral stats combined with his ability to get blocked shots and usually give him a solid fantasy floor.  He’s a tremendous bet for hitting 3x with a real chance of 4x on Saturday, especially with the aid of a possible clean sheet bonus.

Value Defenders

Maya Yoshida (Southampton @ Manchester United, $4,000) – On Tuesday, Yoshida was essential in my personal lineup scoring 20.6 FDP at minimum price (over 5x value!).  FanDuel has not risen his price since that game, and I will likely be targeting Yoshida again on Saturday.  Yoshida’s EPL appearances this season have been limited by his participation in the Asian Cup, however, he’s one of the better defenders on Southampton’s roster and is always active collecting defensive peripheral stats.  He’s a near lock for 3x value at minimum price.

English Premier League DFS Breakdown – Saturday 3/2/19

Goalkeepers

David de Gea (Southampton @ Manchester United, $6,000) – David de Gea should draw a lot of interest at the GK position in this slate.  Southampton are barely scoring over one goal per game this season, and they’ll face a stiff Manchester United defense.  David de Gea is in a good spot at home for both a win bonus and a clean sheet bonus.

John Ruddy (Cardiff @ Wolverhampton, $5,000) – It was announced Friday by Wolverhampton manager that Ruddy would earn his first EPL start of the season on Saturday.  Nuno Santo expressed a lot of confidence in him during his interview.

After getting burned by a Wolves GK midweek, it’s bold to go right back, but this is a better matchup at home.  Ruddy will be facing a Cardiff team that have scored only nine goals in 13 away games this year.  Surely, Wolverhampton can put their ugly midweek performance behind them and bounce back with a win and clean sheet on Saturday.

Thanks for reading my English Premier League DFS Breakdown.  Hopefully it’s helpful!  As always, I’ll be around on Twitter with last-minute advice and updates (@vdray5).