After years of predictability, is it time for an Eastern Conference shakeup?

With the 2019 MLS season set to kick off this weekend, we take a closer look at the Eastern Conference.

Over the past few years, the MLS Eastern Conference has been dominated by three teams. This season might be different. The playoff structure has changed. Now seven teams make the postseason, and the two-legged format is gone: One and done is the approach. It puts a larger emphasis on finishing first in the conference — home-field advantage and a first round bye — and lets one more team squeeze into the equation.

Predictions are tough — just look at Toronto FC breaking the points record two years ago and their dismal season last year — but we can still analyze how teams look entering the season, what to watch out for and expectations for 2019.

Atlanta United, reigning MLS Cup champions, lost influential playmaker Miguel Almiron as well as head coach Tata Martino in the offseason. Almiron was replaced by the signing of South American Player of the Year, Gonzalo “Pity” Martinez. Meanwhile, Martino was replaced by Dutch coach Frank De Boer, whose last two gigs lasted a total of five months combined.

It’s yet to be seen if De Boer can overcome those disaster spells and keep Atlanta as a top team in the East. The talent is certainly still there.

The New York Red Bulls, who won the Supporters Shield on Decision Day thanks to a massive Toronto FC win over Atlanta, only lost star midfielder Tyler Adams. Head coach Chris Armas returns after a successful half season following Jesse Marsch’s departure.

The league-best defense that held 17 shutouts will return, led by Defender of the Year Aaron Long. Bradley Wright-Phillips will lead the line yet again, but the forward turns 34 in early March. He hasn’t shown any decline yet, but the Red Bulls did hedge some bets by signing 18-year-old Danish forward Matthias Jorgensen. Kaku remains as a designated player despite an interesting transfer saga over the offseason, which saw his agent Gustavo Casasola lash out at Red Bull management for not approving a transfer for the Paraguayan play maker.

New York City FC, the last of the eastern giants may be the one to drop off this season. Head coach Dom Torrent was unable to replicate the form of preceding manager, Patrick Viera, and if not for a win over the Union on Decision Day, NYCFC could have fallen from third place. Given how other teams in the East have improved, NYCFC are at risk of falling behind. They did replace David Villa with Romanian designated player Alexandru Mitrita, but whether he can replace the Spanish legend’s influence or goal tally is harder to say.

That leaves the rest. The three teams closest to NYCFC either enter the season in better form, or have made important offseason changes. This could be a down year for the Pigeons.

D.C. United, after a barnstorming late-season run, thanks in part to Wayne Rooney and Audi Field, are in the best position to overtake NYCFC. The squad that ended the season with seven wins and three draws — including wins over Atlanta United, NYCFC and FC Dallas — return minus Yamil Asad, whose involvement dropped toward the end of the season anyway. Designated player Lucas Rodriguez, a 21-year-old from Argentina, replaces Asad and joins a stacked front four of Rooney, Luciano Acosta — runner-up for most assists in 2018 — and USMNT winger Paul Arriola.

A full season at Audi Field with this squad could see D.C. United leapfrog NYCFC and maybe challenge for a top place.

The Columbus Crew didn’t make many offseason changes, with the exception of head coach Caleb Porter joining in place of Gregg Berhalter. Goals have long been at a premium in Columbus, but they’re a team that find ways to win. It’s up to Porter to keep that culture.

The biggest loss for this squad will be the season-long injury to DP Milton Valenzuela. Waylon Francis will step in at LB, but otherwise the team will start the season unchanged. The summer will see Zack Steffan leave for Manchester City. There’s plenty of time to see if the Crew remain the same well-run-but-not-flashy side of years past or if the lack of output comes back to bite them.

The Philadelphia Union add Mexican midfielder Marco Fabian to replace the loan of Borek Dockal, who led the league in assists last year. Sporting director Ernst Tanner has opted to change head coach Jim Curtin’s long love for the 4-2-3-1 to instead flood the midfield. They’ll operate with two strikers and a diamond midfield in 2019.

The youngest defense in MLS somehow got younger, as 25-year-old right back Keegan Rosenberry was traded to Colorado. Kai Wagner, 21, or Matthew Real, 19, will step in at left-back as Ray Gaddis shuffles back to the right side, and may eventually be replaced by 21-year-old Olivier Mbaizo at right-back.

The Union could end up with a defense with a total age of 80 years old. That will be covered by experience in the midfield, with Haris Medunjanin, Alejandro Bedoya and Fabian boasting a combined age of 73. Philadelphia are trying to adapt and even set the pace for the ever adapting league, despite a history of falling behind. Despite what the Union are trying to create, they may find some growing pains and will likely be happy with a playoff spot.

Toronto FC lost both of their most influential playmakers: Sebastian Giovinco and Victor Vazquez. Michael Bradley is getting older, Terrance Boyd is the only addition to the offense (and did you see him sky that penalty in the CONCACAF Champions League?), and there has been no indication of a youth revolution. Laurent Ciman is the other notable addition, but after the 4-0 drubbing in Panama, expectations for this squad are low.

Last year the CCL took precedent over MLS for Toronto, who never picked up the pace after losing the final to Chivas. Perhaps forgetting CCL will allow Toronto to focus on the league. Perhaps fielding two giant forwards in Boyd and Jozy Altidore will mean Toronto don’t need a creative influence. Don’t hold out too much hope.

Montreal Impact, meanwhile, take steps forward to improve every six months it seems. Over the first half of last season, the Impact started 3-0-10, then proceeded to go 11-4-6. They signed Maxi Urruti as a forward in the offseason, a position they desperately needed help in, and remain mostly the same except for the loss of influential winger Alejandro Silva.

If Remi Garde sticks to what made him successful at the end of last year — sitting deep and counter-attacking — Montreal should be a comfortable playoff candidate.

Let’s jump now to our new expansion team, FC Cincinnati.

The four previous expansion teams fell to two sides of a spectrum. At the bottom are Minnesota United and Orlando City. Neither have made the playoffs or even looked close. However, both have fantastic fanbases and show a real desire to improve. Atlanta United and LAFC both show the other side of the coin. They’re both the “shiny new toy” in MLS.

Cincinnati aren’t that new shiny toy. They’ll fall right in the middle of the expansion spectrum. The team did bring in some big names: Atlanta’s Greg Garza, Vancouver’s Kendall Waston, Polish NT member Przemyslaw Tyton, BSC Young Boy’s Leonardo Bertone, ES Troyes AC’s Mathieu Deplagne and many other MLS veterans. The common theme through most of the additions is defense. Most of the money FCC spent was on defensive players. Like their Ohio neighbors, FCC will be difficult to break down and most wins will come in the form of a 1-0.

The biggest question will be the tactical acumen of South African head coach Alan Koch, who has yet to coach at this high of a level. For now, this squad is too much of an unknown to make a good prediction, but they certainly look like they’ll be a tough match for any team.

That brings us to the rest. The downtrodden and forgotten members of the east: New England Revolution, Chicago Fire and Orlando City.

Despite the fall from playoffs in 2017, the Fire are a potential dark horse pick this season. The long fall from third to 10th is never easy to get up from, but Chicago are in the best position to jump the table. Injuries hampered the offense last year, and the better portions of the squad remain: Dax McCarty, Johan Kappelhoff, Aleksander Katai and Bastian Schweinsteiger. Meanwhile, a few squad additions could bolster those bigger names.

The problems for the Fire remain the same — squabbles between front office and fans, stadium location, et al. Chicago have about a 50-50 chance of either tanking or having a miraculous return to grace.

New England Revolution, led by Brad Friedel, ended the season on a low, and have had a terrible preseason. Robert Kraft continues to not invest in his MLS squad but finds it fine spending money in the dark corners of Jupiter. Friedel teased an “elite” signing, and maybe that could be the injection that turns the team around, but outside of a few quality players, the squad are lacking in the talent to keep up with the growing league.

Orlando City once again tried to shake things up, adding Portuguese winger Nani. At worst they have a player who is exciting enough to draw a crowd. At best they exceed their best ever point total of 44.

Here are my final standings:

1: New York Red Bulls

2: Atlanta United

3: D.C. United

4: New York City FC

5: Montreal Impact

6: Philadelphia Union

7: Columbus Crew

8: FC Cincinnati

9: Chicago Fire

10: Toronto FC

11: New England Revolution

12: Orlando City