NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday, March 1 – It’s The First of The Month!
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
By shortly after lunchtime on the East Coast yesterday the Thursday NBA DFS slate had been thrown into chaos as we got slate changing news when Kevin Durant was announced as out due to rest with the even bigger news being Paul George would miss the game against the Sixers. What this meant was that guys like Russell Westbrook and Dennis Schroder become near lock plays while the Warriors stars like Stephen Curry and DeMarcus Cousins were right there with them. Ultimately two of the “forgotten” studs on the slate were the ones who broke it as Karl-Anthony Towns (70 FPTS) and James Harden (95 FPTS) went absolutely nuts and were the only two players on the slate to exceed 60 fantasy points!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Friday Night NBA Slate Breakdown:
This slate is going to be high-scoring.
Let’s just start there – go into this slate with that mindset, do not settle for guys that “could get there” because the games on this slate are setting up for a ton of fantasy goodness and just ‘getting to value’ may not be enough.
Of the 7 games on the slate, which kick off 30 minutes later than usual at 7:30PM EST, every single one has a total of 225 or more with 10 of the 14 teams on the slate with projected pace increases.
Interestingly enough, we do not have a ton of injury news (but it is early), with Devin Booker looking like the one big unknown against the Pelicans in a game that is full of them.
After Thursday night’s slate where we were reminded how the stars can break it on any night, we would be crazy not to start with the late night hammer between Giannis and LeBron.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are the only two players priced above $20K on this slate and really on FantasyDraft, I think you need to step back and look at the pricing for a moment to really appreciate this.
Giannis sits at $20.7K with LeBron at $20.3K – the next player in the pool is Lauri Markannen ($16.3K). When is the last time we saw such a massive drop in pricing on a slate this large where we have a $4K plus gap between the two stars and the rest of the field.
The Giannis and LeBron pairing on FantasyDraft could end up being popular as you can lock both of these stars in and you still have just under $10K per player for the rest of your roster which seems more than fair.
LeBron has gone for 62-64 fantasy points in each of his last three games which would more than return value at his price point and he seems like the “safer” star after Giannis saw his minutes limited to only 24 after missing the previous game with an injury. The minutes limit in that game is something we need to watch for here tonight and it could force the Bucks stars ownership to be lower than it normally would be in a spot like this. Giannis has yet to face The King as a member of the Lakers, but in his last four meetings as a Cavalier, Giannis put up between 59-63 fantasy points every single game.
This game has the fastest projected pace on the entire slate, a 236 total, 4 point spread and the two lone superstars on the slate – it feels like having exposure to one, if not both is a must here tonight.
NBA DFS – Picking your Build:
I think on this slate you have two very distinct choices on FantasyDraft – go Stars and Scrubs, locking in both LeBron and Giannis and working around a $10K per player budget the rest of the way or go more balanced and fade the two $20K plus stars. To me, playing just one of LeBron or Giannis really does not seem like an ideal path unless we get some news that Giannis is still on a minutes limit as I think you want to lock in the high ceiling correlation.
Going Stars and Scrubs:
With the context of going Stars and Scrubs and building around LeBron/Giannis – it means limiting yourself to just under $10K per player for the rest of your build, but frankly this seems like a doable route.
This slate is extremely back-loaded, as the three highest totals and the three fastest projected games also happen to be the last three to tip-off and I think you can look at a player pool just of these games and build around the two stars.
Suns/Pelicans tips off at 9PM EST and we could get some value boosts if Devin Booker is ultimately ruled out. Mikal Bridges ($7.5K) would likely join the starting unit with Booker and T.J. Warren both out and we saw in the last two games that Booker missed against the Warriors and Jazz, he played 37 and 39 minutes and put up 35 and 21 fantasy points. Tyler Johnson ($9.8K) seems to finally be hitting his groove, playing 30+ minutes in three straight games and going for 30, 30 and 49 fantasy points in his last three.
The Clippers and Kings have the highest total (240) on the slate and the second fastest projected pace and with the injury to Marvin Bagley III, this Kings rotation…may be, gulp – concentrated and under-priced?
Against the Bucks last game, the Kings went with a starting five of Fox-Hield-Bogdan-Barnes and WCS and all five starters played 30+ minutes in a OT game with Corey Brewer being the only bench guy to even hit 20 minutes.
If the Kings are going to run this tight of a rotation – I am not sure how you don’t have multiple pieces from this game especially when you look at the pricing. Bogdan Bogdanovic ($10.5K) and Buddy Hield ($12.2K) are fresh off 50 burgers in their last game as they shot the ball 22 and 29 times against the Bucks.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($8.6K) has seen his price drop way down due to inconsistent minutes but when you consider he needs 30 fantasy points to hit 3.5x value and realize he has hit that mark in three of his last 6 games and now has no Bagley to contend with – I am not sure how you ignore this price.
Harrison Barnes ($10.3K) is locked into 30+ minutes and has put up 38 and 45 fantasy points games in recent outings. The one tough sell is De’Aaron Fox ($13.8K) as while the player is a great target, the price hike and some PatBev defense on the other side makes me more likely to take my shots with the other 4 Kings starters.
The Lakers-Bucks game outside of the two stars is certainly fairly priced with no player over $13K and while my preference is to lock in the stars here, I think you can make the case for the fringe prices here as fill-ins. Rajon Rondo ($9.9K) was put back into the starting unit against New Orleans and put up a Rondo like stat-line – 11 points, 7 rebounds and 16 assists on his way to 49 fantasy points. It will be interesting to see if the Lakers keep this smaller line-up with LeBron at the 5 and frankly against the Bucks, I think this smaller build matches up better so I like the correlation with Rondo-Bron here tonight.
NBA DFS – Balanced Build:
If you are going to fade the Stars and Scrubs build and go balanced, I think you need to start at the top of this “next tier” and find the under-priced stars that you believe can at least keep pace with LeBron and Giannis for a fraction of the price.
Kyrie Irving ($15.9K) will get one of the best match-ups on the board against a Wizards team that is ranked among the worst in the NBA and one he dropped 50+ fantasy points against in their only other match-up this season. Going with a mini 1v1 stack of Kyrie and Bradley Beal (15.8K) who has gone for 50+ fantasy points in three of his last four games, gives you a high upside duo for a fraction of the price of LeBron and Giannis.
The Blazers and Raptors give you a similar chance to mini-stack to second tier stars in Damian Lillard ($15.7K) and Kawhi Leonard ($16.2K) in their second meeting of the season. The first time around, Kawhi dropped 44 while Dame managed only 37 fantasy points and it is worth noting this game has the lowest total (although still 226) and is projected to be the lowest pace game on the slate.
The one play from this game that may make the most sense – Moe Harkless ($7.1K) who has been on a tear at near minimum price, putting up 32 fantasy points per game over his last four outings which would exceed 4.5x value on FantasyDraft.
The Hornets and Nets have had some massive fantasy battles this season with Kemba Walker ($14.6K) going for 44, 47 and 53 fantasy points which at this price point would meet and exceed value in every single game. Kemba flat-out seems too cheap for this match-up.
D’Angelo Russell ($15.5K) dropped 59 fantasy points against the Hornets last game but after a disappointing outing against the Wizards last game and with the return of Spencer Dinwiddie, my guess is most will balk at this price and for good reason.
Let me let you in on a little D-Russ secret – when he gets ignored, those tend to be the games he goes bonkers, when he is chalk, like he was last game, he tends to under-perform. Speaking of players nobody is going to play – Caris LeVert ($10.6K) after failing to score a single point against Washington (on his bobblehead night no less), is going to be totally ignored but has the upside to crush this price tag at less than 5% ownership.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
More from FanSided
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
- Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet
G: Kyrie Irving
G: Bradley Beal
G: D’Angelo Russell
F/C: Willie Cauley-Stein
F/C: Harrison Barnes
F/C: Moe Harkless
UTIL: Kemba Walker
UTIL: Buddy Hield
Slate Overview: As I mentioned, I think there are two distinct builds here tonight – either you go Stars and Scrubs with LeBron and Giannis or you fade the hammer and go more balanced. I think the balanced build will be the more contrarian option on a site like FantasyDraft where the pricing is a bit softer so this is the one I opted to use as my example.
You can build a core around 4 guards I think could match LeBron/Giannis here tonight with Kyrie, Beal, Kemba and D-Russ and do not forget Buddy Hield just dropped 50+ with nearly 30 FGA. I will say this, if we get ANY notion that Giannis is going to be limited, I think going more balanced here tonight is the optimal build but if Giannis is all systems go, I think most will do everything they can to jam in the only two stars on the slate.
dark. Next. DraftKings NBA DFS Slate Breakdown - Friday, March 1
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.