DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – Give Me Russy and The Boogie

DFS NBA – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.

We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!

For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.

This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.

Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 8 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!

DFS NBA – Games & Point Total

Orlanda Magic vs. Indiana Pacers – Point Total: 210.5

Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat – Point Total: 220.5

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks – Point Total: 212.5

Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers – No Point Total As Of 11 p.m.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs – No Point Total As of 11 p.m.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns – Point Total: 232.5 *

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz – No Point Total As of 11 p.m.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets – Point Total: 234*

* – Games to potentially stack

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays

Russell Westbrook vs San Antonio Spurs

Salary: $11,500 – Needs to score 57.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (74.75 for 6.5x)

If you do not play Russell Westbrook tonight then you are don’t like winning obviously. In back to back games versus the Spurs on January 10th and January 12th, Russell put up a combined stat line of 48 points, 31 assist, and 19 rebounds. Westbrook is coming off of a strong performance versus the Philadelphia 76ers, recording 23 points with 11 assist and 11 rebounds for 60.25 fantasy points.

The San Antonio Spurs are allowing opposing point guards to average 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist. They allow them to average 45.21 fantasy points per game also. Westbrook is at a price that is high but very worth it as he is averaging a triple double.

Lebron James vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $11,400 – Needs to score 57 fantasy points or more to exceed value (74.1 for 6.5x)

The Los Angeles Lakers can not catch a break to win a game but they sure do give the value when it comes to the DFS world. Lebron added another 60+ fantasy point game last night versus the Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 31 points, 10 assist, and 7 rebounds. He is really in “playoff” mode it seems. Rather they win or lose, we may need to focus on him every slate he appears on. He’s averaging 1.55 fantasy points per minute and 54.3 fantasy points per game.

The Phoenix Suns are giving up 40.85 fantasy points per game, allowing opposing small forwards to average 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. If Lebron James can repeat the performance from December 2nd versus the Phoenix Suns, he’ll be close to what we need him to reach for 5x value. But seeing how he is currently performing and feeling, he’ll be upping his stat line from the previous one.

Nikola Jokic vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $10,200 – Needs to score 51 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.3 for 6.5x)

The New Orleans already announced that Anthony Davis would be sitting for Saturdays game versus the Denver Nuggets which raises Nikola Jokic‘s stock. Jokic is averaging 50.2 fantasy points per game and 1.61 fantasy points per minute. In his past five games, Jokic has returned value in three of them, scoring 63.5, 53, and 66.75 fantasy points. He now has a great match-up versus the Pelicans.

Giving up 57.77 fantasy points per game, the Pelicans allow opposing centers to average 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. While the Pelicans are slacking with big men in the paint now, they can keep a game close and this one has one of the highest point totals of the night.

DFS NBA – FanDuel: The Top Tier Plays

Mike Conley vs. Dallas Mavericks

Salary: $8,000 – Needs to score 40 fantasy points or more to exceed value (52 for 6.5x)

Mike Conley has been quietly getting the job done in Memphis, scoring 40.9 and 42.8 fantasy points in his past two games. Conley is at a usage rate of 27%, averaging 37.2 fantasy points per game and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. With the Grizzlies shipping Marc Gasol out at the deadline, Conley immediately got the bump in usage.

The Mavericks are giving up 47.76 fantasy points per game to the point guard position. They allow them to average 22 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Conley is at a very reasonable price to still build a solid lineup around. He should also give you the production that you need easily.

Julius Randle vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $9,000 – Needs to score 45 fantasy points or more to exceed value (58.5 for 6.5x)

Julius Randle is the future of the New Orleans Pelicans as they have restricted Anthony Davis and Jrue Holidays minutes for the rest of the season. Randle also is still at a price that makes his match-ups look even better. He is averaging 36.8 fantasy points per game and 1.29 fantasy points per minute. He has surpassed 50 fantasy points in two of the four games in the second half of the season so far.

Facing the Denver Nuggets, Randle should see close to return 6x value. The Nuggets give up 45.46 fantasy points to the power forward position. They allow opposing power forwards to average 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. With the team on his back now, Julius Randle has no where but up to go from now on.

DeMarcus Cousins vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (55.25 for 6.5x)

This is a great match-up for DeMarcus Cousins as the Philadelphia 76ers are still without Joel Embiid which means they have no one to match the play of him. Cousins 34.5, 47.8, 52.7, and 40.2 fantasy points to kick off the second half of the season. Cousins is finally off the minute restriction so unleash the beast at the cheap price of $8,500 tonight!

The Philadelphia 76ers are giving up 55.16 fantasy points to the center position but without Joel Embiid and Boban, expect that number to rise a bit. They also allow opposing centers to average 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. We also know that Boogie has taken up a lot of the usage since joining the Warriors this season so expect him to always be able to put up good numbers to return at least 5x value.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays

Paul Milsap vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $6,600 – Needs to score 33 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.9 for 6.5x)

Paul Milsap is coming off of what can be considered a bad game with his recent play and he’s looking to bounce back. He went from 45.75 and 55.75 fantasy points to kick off the second half of the season and recently scored 32 and 25.75 fantasy points. He’s averaging 28.5 fantasy points per game and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. Milsap is also at a really good salary price with a great match-up.

The Pelicans are also giving up some major fantasy points to the power forward position, giving up 48.69 fantasy points. They allow opposing power forwards to average 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Milsap is once again one of my favorite plays on this slate.

Brandon Ingram vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $6,600 – Needs to score 33 fantasy points or more to exceed value (42.9 for 6.5x)

Why are the Los Angeles Lakers starters still priced so low? Ingram has now scored 44.75, 38.75, 49.5, 38.5, and now 46.5 fantasy points since kicking off the second half of the season. Ingram is averaging 30.4 fantasy points per game and .92 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 23% so far this season.

The Phoenix Suns are giving up 41.68 fantasy points per game this year and allowing opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. The Suns have actually turned it around late this season where I can’t make the same jokes but we can still exploit them on most slates. Ingram and Lebron are my top two choices from this game and to stack when building a lineup.

Aaron Gordon vs. Indiana Pacers

Salary: $6,400 – Needs to score 32 fantasy points or more to exceed value (41.6 or 6.5x)

I rarely call on Aaron Gordon but the main has turned it up a notch and has turned in two 40+ fantasy points games back to back. He has scored 40.75 and 48.25 fantasy points versus the New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors. He now gets to face a tough Indiana Pacers defense. He’s averaging 33.5 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. He’s averaging 33 minutes per game so we can expect a 5x value performance tonight, projecting around the 33 fantasy point mark.

The Indiana Pacers are giving up the third fewest fantasy points with 38.17 to the small forward position. But with the Pacers not playing at full strength, we can prepare for Gordon to continue his streak of dominance. His shot has fallen 50% and 60% in the past two games, so prepare for the green light to be very lit on his shot.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Mid Tier Plays

Caris LeVert vs. Miami Heat

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)

I am still hugely upset with Caris LeVert and his performance on his bobblehead night but we’re going to try it anyways. He’s averaging 28.4 fantasy points per game and 1.05 fantasy points per minute. He hasn’t even been the most consistent player since returning from his injury but with the right match-up, we know he can get the job done.

LeVert is facing a Miami Heat team that is allowing opposing shooting guards to average 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. They are also giving up 38.02 fantasy points per game to shooting guards. LeVert can be a great play at $6,200 but it depends on who we actually get that shows up.

Mason Plumlee vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $5,00 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value (32.5 for 6.5x)

Mason Plumlee has had arguably just one bad performance during the second half of the NBA season with a 11.7 fantasy point outing. Other than that, he has scored 29.1, 24.2, and 34.8 fantasy points. He’s averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game with a usage rate of 17%. He now has the perfect opportunity versus the Pelicans who are sitting Anthony Davis tonight for “rest” and basically pure hatred for him.

The Pelicans are giving up 57.34 fantasy points to the center position which is a huge number knowing who they actually have on their “team”. They allow opposing centers to average 23 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Plumlee should be able to hope back on track tonight, returning value two games straight.

JJ Redick vs. Golden State Warriors

Salary: $5,400 – Needs to score 27 fantasy points or more to exceed value (35.1 for 6.5x)

This should be a play that goes very well low owned throughout the night. JJ Redick is currently averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game and .82 fantasy points per minute with a usage rate of 22%. While he hasn’t had the best start to the second half of the season, I expect him to do so tonight versus a Golden State Warriors team that is an absolute mess right now.

The Warriors are currently giving up 41.40 fantasy points to the small forward position. They are allowing them to average 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. I also like the match-up a lot better if Klay Thompson truly sits as his defense is usually top-notch. Out of the three mid tier plays, I would use JJ Redick first, then go Plumlee, and leaving Caris LeVert as a last resort type of usage.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays

Joakim Noah vs. Dallas Mavericks

Salary: $5,000 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value (32.5 for 6.5x)

The resurgence of Joakim Noah‘s career is simply amazing as he has been playing like his old self, plus he’s doing it off of very little minutes. He has played 24, 23 and 21 minutes in his past three games but scored 36.25, 37.5, and 30.75 fantasy points. If Ivan Rabb continues with the questionable tag, expect Noah to see the same usage once again.

The Dallas Mavericks give up the third fewest fantasy points to the center position, only giving up 51.39. They allow them to average 20 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Even with this being a tough match-up for the Memphis Grizzlies, Noah sees minutes early on in games and has shown he can get the job done pretty well, reaching that 6.5x value mark.

D.J. Augustin vs. Indiana Pacers

Salary: $4,600 – Needs to score 23 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.9 for 6.5x)

This is arguably the most difficult match-up for D.J. Augustin but he is still priced very poorly to have such an easy ceiling to reach. He just needs 23 fantasy! He has only been below 30 fantasy points in two of the four games to kick off of the second half of the season where he scored 28.75 and 25 fantasy points. But he will still reach near 30 minutes per game.

The Indiana Pacers give up the fewest fantasy points to the point guard position, giving up just 42.32 fantasy points. They allow opposing point guards to average 19 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game also. I completely understand if you do not want to chance the D.J. Augustin play but the burn that he gets every single game is too hard to pass up, especially at $4,600.

Derrick Favors vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Salary: $4,800 – Needs to score 25 fantasy points or more to exceed value (31.2 for 6.5x)

I would love to know why Derrick Favors is still priced so low after scoring 45.5, 24.75, 37.25, and 36.75 fantasy points. He’s averaging just 23 minutes per game but 26.1 fantasy points per game and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Favors is also at a usage rate of 18%.

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the most entertaining and tough defensive teams in the NBA currently. They do allow power forwards to average 47.44 fantasy points per game while averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Out of the three low tier plays, Derrick Favors is up there as one of my top choices, even over D.J. Augustin.

DFS NBA – FanDuel: The Low Tier Plays

Isaiah Briscoe vs. Indiana Pacers

Salary: $3,800 – Needs to score 19 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.7 for 6.5x)

While I have D.J. Augustin as a low tier play on Draftkings (you can use him here also), Briscoe is actually a very intriguing and low-cost guy. He returned on Friday, versus the Golden State Warriors, from concussion protocol and scored 23.8 fantasy points in 20 minutes. He has only dropped below 20 fantasy points twice in the past five games, scoring 15.9 and 4 fantasy points. But he now has a tough match-up just like Augustin, facing the Pacers.

The Pacers are giving up just 41.26 fantasy points to the point guard position, the fewest in the league. They allow opposing point guards to average just 19 points, 8 assist, and 4 rebounds per game. While this isn’t the prettiest match-up, Briscoe can be the dropped score of the night if it fails.

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Mike Scott vs. Golden State Warriors

Salary: $4,500 – Needs to score 22.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.25 for 6.5x)

The Philadelphia 76ers really have no left to defend the paint or even DeMarcus Cousins tonight but that’s a good thing for us and Mike Scott. Scott received more playing time in the 76ers last game and scored 20.1 fantasy points in 20 minutes. I would expect the 76ers to run a similar game plan once again tonight but Mike Scott will most likely see Looney and Bell more then Draymond Green and DeMarcus Cousins since he’s coming off of the bench.

He gets to face a Golden State Warriors team that is only giving up 43.43 fantasy points to the power forward position. But they allow them to average 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Like I mentioned when writing up JJ Redick, the Warriors are an odd team currently and aren’t playing like their usual self which means guys like Mike Scott and JJ Redick should see major opportunities to reach their 5x value.

Andre Iguodala vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Salary: $4,000 – Needs to score 20 fantasy points or more to exceed value (26 for 6.5x)

This play solely depends on if Klay Thompson will suit up and play tonight but if not, throw the man Iggy in your lineup. Iguodala sees a usage rate of 10% when Klay Thompson is playing, but without him? Well, Iggy shoots up to a usage of 18%! He goes from averaging 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assist to 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist. We know that Iggy is nearing the end of his career but we also know that he can turn the skills on at any given moment and for $4k, let me have him.

Iguodala will see the 76ers, a team that gives up just 38.05 fantasy points to the shooting guard position. But all we need is 20 fantasy points and we’ll already have our 5x value. The 76ers also allow opposing shooting guards to average 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. So if you see that Klay Thompson is out, throw Andre Iguodala in every single lineup! (Well maybe not all of them but at least 2).

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day!