DraftKings NBA Picks March 2: Don't fade Westbrook

OAKLAND, CA – NOVEMBER 13: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks stands on the court during their game against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on November 13, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 2: Don’t fade Westbrook

We have nine games on our Saturday, but the early afternoon is chopped off into its own Showdown tournament. That leaves us nine games for our main DraftKings NBA slate. We miss out on the Detroit front against Love and Cleveland, but there is still a lot to like for the night games. We have six players that bust through the five figure mark and three of them are over $11,000. However, Embiid and Paul George have already been ruled out, so we will have plenty of value to cram two or three in our lineups if we want.

Did you guys check out some NHL and PGA over the break? I did, and thanks to our advice right here at Fantasy CPR, I was able to add a little bit to my bankroll for the stretch run of the NBA season. Just because the NBA is back up and running doesn’t mean we need to ignore the friends we made over the break, right?

Last night the money line was the highest I have ever seen at 336.25 DraftKings points. My second lineup cleared it with ease. In fact, it had 374.75 points, which is my highest total ever. It didn’t even crack the top 1,000. The other lineup broke 300 with ease, but didn’t even sniff the money. I had Trae Young in both, but him alone wasn’t enough.

BackWoodzBoy scored the most points ever with 442.75 to take this down. Like me, he had Young, LaVine, and Porter, but he took it a step farther with Markkanen. He also hit big with Marc Gasol, Willie Cauley-Stein, Rondo, and Taurean Prince.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 25, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Give me all of Russell Westbrook here. He has averaged 67.1 DraftKings points in two games against the Spurs. Both of those were with George in the lineup. I don’t know how many lineups I’ll have tonight, but I can promise you that Westbrook will be in every single one of them.

Below Russ there are three guys with matchups against the top ten in point guard defenses. Doncic and Curry face top five squads against the point. I still like Doncic against Memphis since we have to go all the way back to February 8th to find the last time he didn’t hit value. Philly “held” Westbrook to 60 DraftKings points on Thursday with George out, but Curry put up 59 on them in the first meeting with the whole team healthy. This really isn’t an autofade either, but none of these guys are catching Russ. For the record, the third one here is Ben Simmons, and he hit 51 on the Warriors the first time around. You can be contrarian and fade Westbrook for two of these guys and maybe come out ahead.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley smoked Dallas for 50.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Memphis is still playing Conley 30-35 minutes per game, so he could be a strong play in the middle range if you plan on using a balanced build.

Jamal Murray still has a streak of four straight games between 30 and 35 DraftKings points with all of Denver’s guards healthy. Murray has lost his upside though, so I see him as more of a cash game play. However, I still think Murray is a better GPP play than Bledsoe against Utah. The GPP pivot here is Darren Collison. That said, his numbers are nearly the same as Murray’s.

Elfrid Payton has been between 34 and 38 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. That’s a solid 6.5x value since DraftKings hasn’t raised his price. I would play Payton over anyone else in this tier.

Dark Horses:

I’m still not crazy about Dinwiddie here, especially against Miami. I would much rather play Rajon Rondo against Phoenix. The blowout risk is a little concerning, but the Lakers are clearly a better team with Rondo o the court. More importantly, LeBron seems to want him on the court. I also like the idea of running this back with Tyler Johnson on the other side. If only using one along with Westbrook, I think I prefer the scoring upside of Johnson.

Justise Winslow deserves a look as well. Winslow has at least 30 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. Goran Dragic is currently listed as questionable. This could end up being even more of a big spot for Winslow here.

Delon Wright continues to be a strong value play for Memphis, but Cory Joseph may actually be the better play tonight. Joseph is outplaying Matthews, and has seen at least 30 minutes in each of the last two games, going for 63.75 DraftKings points in those games. While others continue to ride Wright for solid value, I’ll chase the upside of Joseph.

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Joseph(G), Winslow(F); Westbrook(PG), Johnson(SG), Payton(G)

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – FEBRUARY 22: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans dribbles the ball against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on February 22, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

D’Angelo Russell laid an egg last night, and Miami doesn’t look like the place for him to get back on track. Especially when you consider that you can have Devin Booker for $100 less against the Lakers. Now the bad news: Booker has just 84 DraftKings points in three games against the Lakers this year.

Donovan Mitchell wont be pulling double duty tonight, so I see no reason to use him against the Bucks. DeMar DeRozan has 79.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this year, so he looks like a solid mid range option.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday has at least 40 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. Judging by his average (43.5) against Denver this year, that’s not changing tonight.

Brandon Ingram has at least 38 DraftKings points in five straight games, and may finally be a good option for DFS again. Ingram has matched or outdone Kuzma in that span. However, Ingram doesn’t have great numbers against the Suns with only 60.5 DraftKings points in two games.

Oh look, Malcolm Brogdon had 31 DraftKings points again. He is a cash game lock, but the fact that he rarely breaks 40 makes him a hard sell in GPP’s on nights where there are more than three or four games. Now that his price is up to $5,800, you can have the significant upside of Will Barton against the Pelicans for around the same cost. That’s the way to go for GPP usage.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade finally cooled off a little on Thursday, and he struggled against Brooklyn earlier this year, but Wade’s recent hot streak is still on everyone’s mind. I expect ownership to remain quite high here, so this could be a place to separate. Terrence Ross could go somewhat unnoticed, but he has raked against Indiana this year. Ross aggravates me more than most players, but I’ll have some shares again. If you want to go with consistent value, that’s Dennis Schroder, even though he doesn’t look to be the nuts play that was originally though when George went down.

There’s a lot of value to chase down here, but a lot of it isn’t worth it. Reggie Bullock gets minutes, but not the shots that he got in Detroit. Wesley Matthews is a consistent 5x value, but he rarely hits more. We all know that the crowded nets are a nightmare for DFS purposes. If Avery Bradley plays, I’m all in on him. If not, Isaiah Briscoe is a virtual unknown for DFS value, but he can be huge for the price if Iwundu is out again.

My pick: Schroder(SG); N/A

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 27: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers celebrates with Brandon Ingram #14 after making a three-pointer against Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half at Staples Center on February 27, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Yong Teck Lim/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Hey! Wipe that drool off your chin. LeBron has actually been well below average against Phoenix because he has only played 59 minutes over the two games. LeBron has been a beast lately, but this is the second game of a back to back against a team the Lakers should blow out. I’m not throwing this much money at something that looks like a third blowout.

Philly was able to shut down Kevin Durant where they couldn’t with Curry. That trend has me fading the entire top tier of SF unless I try to use Doncic or Simmons here instead of at the point.

Honorable Mention:

As with LeBron, most of the rest of the Lakers carry some risk unless you want to play some backups hoping for a blowout. This is a different Suns team, but I still don’t know if they can hang around. I would rather play Kelly Oubre on the other side of this. Better yet, ignore the last three sentences and play Bojan Bogdanovic. I don’t even care about the matchup anymore.

Just as appetizing is Jonathan Isaac. Isaac has 55.25 DraftKings points in two games against Indiana this year. Isaac has been inconsistent of late, but the Magic are going to keep running him regardless.

Joe Ingles has averaged 37.9 DraftKings points over the last four games. We know that Ingles runs hot and cold. Right now, he’s hot. I’m more inclined to ride this than the inconsistency of Isaac, but it’s still hard to move off of Bojan.

Dark Horses:

Mikal Bridges is getting more minutes with the Suns lately. Who can blame them? They’re not going anywhere this year. Bridges is inconsistent, but if the Suns are committed to using him, I don’t see why we can’t throw a dart for this price.

That seems a lot safer than using Andre Iguodala. Dorian Finney-Smith is an option, but his minutes haven’t stayed very consistent. Darius Miller is worth considering for his price and workload. The RotoGrinders optimizer still loves Memphis value, but I don’t see why. There is a lot of uncertainty there. Any of the above options are better than Bruno Caboclo.

My pick: Ingles(SF); Ingles(SF)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – FEBRUARY 08: Tobias Harris #33 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts after a timeout in the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the Wells Fargo Center on February 8, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

The matchup says stay away, but Giannis put up 52.5 DraftKings points against Utah in the first meeting. I’m not falling for it. First off, The Bucks want Giannis as fresh as possible. He missed a game with a knee injury about a week ago, and only played 24 minutes in the game after that. Considering he played 32 minutes in a win over the Lakers last night, I’m not sure how much the Bucks want to run him on a back to back. So what if they lose to Utah? I’m not saying the Bucks don’t want to win, but if they lose this game, they’re still in first place in the East.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris has averaged 42.8 DraftKings points in the three meetings with the Warriors this year. Now he gets to attack them with Embiid out. Simmons is probably the best bet here, but Harris is a close second.

Paul Millsap‘s price is rising to the point where we can’t get as much value out of him. However, we may be able to get that against New Orleans. Maybe Davis rests on a back to back. At the very least, he wont play the fourth quarter or more than 20 minutes. That makes this even more of a mismatch. Millsap put up more than 50 a couple of games ago. I wouldn’t be shocked if he did it again.

Aaron Gordon and Kyle Kuzma are like fool’s gold here. The matchups are juicy, but we simply can’t trust Gordon. Kuzma is at least consistent, but all the Lakers worry me. Then you have Draymond Green. Most of his games are pedestrian at best. Then he does like he did to Philly in the first meeting and drops more than 40. Are you willing to take the risk?

Dark Horses:

Jerami Grant has 74.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this year. Markieff Morris is a decent option here too, but he’s not unseating Grant anytime soon. Grant is the play here, and he’s a great bargain for this price.

You could gamble on Nikola Mirotic, but Derrick Favors really looks like a great option. Favors has at least 7x value in four of the last five games. We all know the problems that Milwaukee has had with power forwards. I am going to have heavy exposure to this.

I still like Jonah Bolden as a value play, but I don’t see any reason not to find the extra $700 for Favors. However, I can get on board with using both. Just watch out though. Philly has been switching up the lineups, and if Bolden doesn’t start, he’s not worth the risk.

My pick: Favors(PF), Bolden(UTIL); Grant(PF), Millsap(F)

DENVER, COLORADO – FEBRUARY 26: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets drives against Steven Adams #12 of the Oklahoma City Thunder in the fourth quarter at the Pepsi Center on February 26, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic has averaged 54.3 DraftKings points in the three meetings with the Pelicans, and that was when the Pelicans were running Davis out there with regularity. He’s going to go nuts on New Orleans here. Yes, the Joker is wild again. The Pelicans are trying to balance the Davis drama with developing the other players. By some miracle, they aren’t getting blown out. I would say that there isn’t much blowout potential here. That makes me like Jokic even more.

Nikola Vucevic has been on a roll lately, but he has struggled in both meetings with Indiana. Either pay up for Jokic, or enjoy the incredible value here.