DraftKings Tiers – NBA DFS Plays, Saturday March 2

Welcome into the Saturday edition of the DraftKings Tiers article! We have an eight game slate tonight with some of the biggest names in fantasy going!

Maybe my tweets to DraftKings worked because we finally have a DraftKings Tiers slate where I’m not that mad about who they chose to be a part of the Tiers format! OK, that’s probably not really what happened but I can dream that I have an influence in their office. Regardless of the reason, we do have some very difficult choices up top and then the bottom represents us with the normal gaggle of names that could break the slate. Let’s dig in!

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 1

Choices – Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James 

The first thing to get out-of-the-way here is you’ll need to monitor the status of Antetokounmpo through the day. He was off his minutes restriction last night but with his knee being a bit of an issue, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him limited on a back to back spot. Also, heading into Utah isn’t the easiest spot either. Rudy Gobert awaits in the paint and while I don’t think he stops the Greek, there’s enough of a chance that he can slow him down a bit. Those factors make Antetokounmpo third in this Tier for me.

It’s a battle between Westbrook and James and I think this is going to be Westbrook since the Spurs have started giving up boatloads of DK points to point guards over the past 30 days. They rank as the fifth worst team in that time frame and coincidentally are surrendering the fifth most real points and assists. He does have the slight advantage over James of not being on a back to back, but I’m not terribly worried about that facet. The bottom line for the Lakers is they need to play around .750 basketball the rest of the way to have a shot at the postseason. James is going to play his minutes against a bad Suns team. I think Westbrook will be the slightly less owned of the two if you’re looking at that perspective as well.

My Ranks – Westbrook, James, Antetokounmpo

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 2

Choices – Paul George, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Luka Doncic

For our purposes, I’m going to assume George makes his return to the lineup tonight. As I’ve said anytime he and Westbrook aren’t in the same Tier, I truly think the cash play is to play those two together. The floor is immensely safe and the ceiling is always sky-high with those two players. San Antonio isn’t the defensive juggernaut they once were either. They are just middle of the road on the season in points allowed per game at 111. They aren’t anything special against forwards either so it should be all systems go for the Thunder duo.

You know the scene in “Liar Liar” where Jim Carrey is trying to write the pen is red but has a blue pen and he can’t do it since he can’t lie? That’s basically what’s happening to me as I try to write that Luka Doncic is probably my least favorite of this Tier. Don’t get me wrong, Doncic is still worth a GPP dart because he is that good and Dallas relies on him so heavily. I just wouldn’t be surprised to see him have the low score of the Tier. Memphis has been just average against point guards over the past month, so there is a reason to take a risk if you’re inclined.

The two big men in this Tier make the most sense if you’re not planning on using George. Vucevic does get the tougher matchup with the Pacers and that matchup has held him down this season, averaging under 20 real points in the two games they’ve faced off. Myles Turner is a very good defensive player and can get out to the three-point line with Vucevic on top of that, but you also can feel pretty comfortable about a double double from him. The Joker is in a prime bounce back spot after a dud against the Jazz. He and the refs didn’t get along in that game, causing some of his poor performance. Even then, he still flirted with a triple double and has a great matchup against a pace up Pelicans team on a back to back to should be sitting Anthony Davis. The only concern for Jokic is the blowout.

My Ranks – George, Jokic, Vucevic, Doncic

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 3

Choices – Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Ben Simmons, D’Angelo Russell, DeMarcus Cousins

This Tier is kind of tough to get a handle on, aside from one player. I’m still going to be off of Russell since the Nets are totally healthy and the Heat being a slower paced team. He can still get hot and I don’t want to totally cast him aside, but I do think he’s clearly the most volatile of the Tier.

The rest of the gang is all involved in the same game and I’m assuming at this point that everyone will be healthy for the Warriors. If they take the chance to sit Curry like they have with Cousins and Durant these past two games, Durant shoots to the top of the Tier and would likely be the chalkiest. Otherwise, Durant or Curry is really splitting hairs. Philly is second in field goal percentage from three, so on paper that’s not the best spot for Curry, especially with less usage since Boogie has started playing. Likewise, Durant is good for 40 most nights but hasn’t had a ton of 55+ games lately. Realistically, Ben Simmons is a carbon copy of these two players from the aspect of the fantasy realm even without Joel Embiid on the floor right now.

Speaking of Joel Embiid not being on the floor tonight, I’m curious to see how in the world the Sixers plans on defending Boogie. Are they hoping that Kerr rests him again? Do they plan on throwing a net over him as he walks into the arena and kidnapping him? In the past seven days(most of the period without Embiid), Philly is giving up an average of 26/16/5 to centers on a nightly basis. With Cousins now playing 30-32 minutes a night, he seems like the best option against a front court that is non-existent at the moment.

My Ranks – Cousins, Simmons, Durant, Curry, Russell

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 4

Choices – Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gobert, DeMar DeRozan, Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Donovan Mitchell 

Harris and DeRozan are the two players who aren’t teammates in this Tier and I believe that DeRozan is the better of the two options. Harris has been excellent without Embiid so far but this isn’t the easiest matchup for him. Just about every time down the floor, he sees Durant or Draymond Green. That’s far from ideal and I will likely pass. DeRozan is intriguing a little bit because the Thunder give up the eighth most points in the paint on the season and DeRozan is within the top three in drives per game. He could really expose that weakness.

I really do kind of like both Holiday and Randle even though they will be in the tough spot in Denver. The Nuggets are smarting from getting beat up by the Jazz the last time out and are looking to put that one behind them. The individual matchups aren’t anything spectacular, but both players are over 1.25 FPPM on the year when Davis is off the court. Of the two, Holiday should be slightly safer for minutes and doesn’t have to deal with the size of the front court like Randle does.

As of now, it appears that Ricky Rubio will suit up for the Jazz tonight so that takes away the top end appeal for Mitchell. If it happens that Rubio does wind up out, I believe that Mitchell is the go-to play here. The usage of 37.9 percent and 1.25 FPPM would be a tough pass against a Milwaukee team that is on the back to back. I typically let centers pass against the Bucks, but Gobert could be an interesting exception. Milwaukee actually gives up the fifth most real points to centers and the 14th most points in the paint. That’s not a bad mix for the paint monster that Gobert is.

My Ranks – Gobert, Holiday, Rubio, DeRozan, Randle, Harris

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 5

Choices – Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Conley, Jimmy Butler, Deandre Ayton, Khris Middleton, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas

Off the hop, I don’t expect Davis to play and if he does he’ll be lucky to see 20 minutes so he’s out. I would also be fairly quick to cast aside Butler as he’s just kind of floating through the past week. He did just have his best game without Embiid but there’s no telling when he decides to chill out and not do a whole lot, like has been the case through some of his tenure with the Sixers.

Middleton isn’t my favorite unless someone form the Bucks gets ruled out. I generally don’t try to target shooters in Utah unless they’re the first option on their team or very cheap in the Classic format. Lastly, Valanciunas is interesting with his usage and FPPM rates with Memphis, but he’s been down around the 25 minute mark. It’s tough to out-score seven other players on those minutes.

His teammate, Conley, makes for quite the option. Dallas is fairly terrible against point guards, surrendering the seventh most DK points to the position on the season. Since the Marc Gasol trade, Conley has been a 30.5 percent usage player. These two teams should stay close to each other and Conley could have a 50 point outing without a doubt. Aldridge is another cagey veteran who should be able to hammer the points in the paint number we referenced earlier with DeRozan. He’s already mashed against the Thunder this year but remember those numbers are skewed by an over time game.

I think Conley and Aldridge will be relatively lower owned as I think Ingram and Ayton carry to the ownership. The Lakers have been just terrible against centers all year, ranking in the bottom five in DK points, real points and rebounds to the position. There’s really no reason that the trend shouldn’t continue and the Lakers have been running small ball these past couple of games. Kyle Kuzma won’t have the easiest time with Ayton. On the other side, Ingram has become the primary scorer not named LeBron and gets a porous Suns defense. He should score another 22-25 tonight and add in plenty of peripheral stats.

My Ranks – Ingram, Ayton, Conley, Aldridge, Butler, Valanciunas, Middleton, Davis

DraftKings Tiers – Tier 6

Choices – Klay Thompson, Aaron Gordon, Steven Adams, Jamal Murray, Eric Bledsoe, Kyle Kuzma, Paul Millsap, Kelly Oubre

Let’s get rid of the easier ones first and for me that’s Adams, Oubre and Thompson. Adams just had one of the best possible matchups on the board with George out against the paper-thin Sixers front court. He barely managed 30 DK points so that’s a hard sell with George likely back. Thompson is questionable with a knee, so that could be the answer we have to “does a Warrior sit this game out”. Even if he doesn’t, I never play Thompson with everyone else healthy and against one of the better defending teams on the three ball. Finally, Oubre has cooled off since his hot start in Phoenix and even at 30 minutes, he’s the third option on a poor team.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

Much like James and Ingram, Kuzma draws a great spot against the Suns and can explode at any moment. He does seem to have taken a bit of a backseat to Ingram and James, not to mention that Rajon Rondo has been logging big minutes these past couple of games. That changes the complexion of this Lakers team and Kuzma is a little riskier than he has been. Millsap in a pace up spot is very interesting as well. He’s been playing close to 30 minutes a night and has been highly productive lately. New Orleans doesn’t have a ton of people to deal with the depth and size of the front court and Millsap has jumped up to a 1.28 FPPM mark these past two weeks.

The most appealing trio is Bledsoe, Gordon and Murray. Not only is Bledsoe fresh off a four year, $70 million extension signed yesterday, things have been clicking for him. He’s eclipsed 35 DK in three of the past four and scored 31 real points last night against the Lakers. I can’t hate you if you want to ride the wave, even in a tough spot.

Gordon gets the Pacers team that has been holding their own on the defensive end and then some, but I usually have some interest when a player faces Thad Young defense. He’s been held to an average of 15 points and 8.5 rebounds, but the Pacers have been sixth worst against power forwards the past 30 days. The law of averages will catch up. Murray can be a little tilting to roster and has some floor, but he’s still playing 30+ minutes in competitive games. The Pelicans have been scorched by point guards all year long so this is a great time to target some ceiling from the young gun.

My Ranks – Murray, Gordon, Bledsoe, Millsap, Kuzma, Thompson(if active), Oubre, Adams

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day!