FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Saturday, 3/2 – RWB Time!
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Saturday, 3/2
Welcome, NBA DFS addicts, to the Saturday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
I wasn’t able to write the Breakdown yesterday, but I definitely still played NBA DFS last night. Luckily I had Trae Young in my cash lineups and a few lineups with Trae-Lavine-Otto that cashed in GPPs. But I knew as soon as I saw a 7-game slate with every game over 225 and no real blowouts to fade that it was going to be a wild night.
Tonight we have an 8-game main slate on FanDuel that locks at 7:00. I am not going to include the 5:00 game between Detroit and Cleveland but you can still play the all-day slate if you want exposure to that game. The contests just aren’t very good and with no late swap, I’d rather not take my chances on knowing who I want in my lineups a full two hours earlier.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
The goal of the breakdown is to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
I’m going to jump right into my cash core as I am a little strapped for time this morning!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
Dennis Schroder (5100) and Russell Westbrook (11700)
If I am paying up for one stud tonight it’s Westy. The Thunder are without Paul George again and both Westbrook and Schroder are going to be elite plays tonight against the Spurs. Westy has been solid against the Spurs this season in two games and is averaging 31-11-10 in two games without Paul George this year.
Westbrook is a no-brainer for cash games and his sidekick Dennis Schroder is also an autoplay for me since they barely moved his priced, despite the fact that he played 33 minutes and took 15 shots. You would be wise to lock both of these guys in tonight and don’t try to get too cute.
Rajon Rondo (5600)
Man, I hate eating Rondo chalk but I admit that last night I should have. When he’s starting, in a positive matchup (like he was last night and is likely again tonight), and priced this ridiculously low then we pretty much have to play him. I don’t think he goes off like he did last night, but his floor is still 6x at this price if he’s going to playing 30+ minutes.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Ben Simmons (9200)
The Sixers have to do battle with the defending champs at home tonight without their franchise superstar Joel Embiid. The Warriors will be looking to avenge their defeat at the hands of the young Sixers last month and I expect a good game. Both teams play fast and I expect the pace of this game to produce a lot of statistical goodness.
I will be targeting the Sixers main guys tonight in GPPs and Simmons is my favorite of the bunch. His price only went up 200 dollars despite the fact he went for 51 FD points and played 41 minutes in their last game against the Thunder.
Nikola Jokic (11100)
The only guy I think that could push Westbrook tonight for highest score is Jokic (yes, you heard that right, LeBron!) The Joker has a great matchup against the Pelicans, who will be without Anthony Davis tonight (rest) but the issue is that Denver is a massive 13-point home favorite.
It’s easy to see a scenario where the Nuggets dominate early and Jokic only plays 25-28 minutes which probably isn’t enough to pay off this price tag. But for that reason, he also may be low-owned in a spot that he has a 70-point ceiling.
DeAndre Ayton (7600)
I was on Ayton last night but he was just okay, posting 16-8 with 3 blocks but in only 28 minutes. Perhaps the Suns were saving him for tonight, and I’m willing to roster him with the hope that he gets more than 30 minutes tonight in an excellent matchup against the Lakers.
Ayton’s price stayed put and recency bias might keep his ownership down, but I’m firing him up as one of my favorite mid-tier plays on the slate.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Goran Dragic (4800)
Dragic is officially questionable so keep an eye on his status, but if he is able to go then I have a lot of interest in him here against the Nets. He’s been coming off the bench for Miami while working his way back from injury and has now topped 30 FD points in two games in a row and his minutes are slowly increasing.
Marco Belinelli (3800)
Marco has a solid bench role for the Spurs and his minutes usually hover in the 22-28 minute range. He played 34 minutes in his last game against Detroit and tonight he has a great matchup against a Thunder team that struggles to defend three-point shooters.
Bam Adebayo (5200)
Bam has been a great cash play the last two games while Whiteside is out and we could see him miss again tonight as he’s officially questionable. Even if Whiteside does play, Kelly Olynyk is also questionable and Bam is so efficient that he could make value even in just 25 minutes.
Cheick Diallo (4700)
Diallo is a per-minute producer and with Davis out of the lineup tonight we’d have to think he’s going to get 20+ minutes of floor time again.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.
Point Guard:
Shooting Guard:
Small Forward:
Power Forward:
Center:
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. I have my cash game core in there and Belinelli as my drop-score punt at 3800. I wanted some exposure to Philadelphia so I grabbed Tobias Harris (8000) who has been great two games in a row and I pivoted down from LeBron James who is now over 12k to Brandon Ingram (7400) for some more Lakers exposure.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup.
This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are at least 1-2 tweaks that need to be made even on a day that doesn’t have much injury news we are waiting on!
PG: Russell Westbrook (11700)
PG: Rajon Rondo (5600)
SG: Marco Belinelli (3800)
SG: Dennis Schroder (5100)
SF: Brandon Ingram (7400)
SF: Will Barton (5600)
PF: Tobias Harris (8000)
PF: Bam Adebayo (5200)
C: Deandre Ayton (7600)
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.
And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!