NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday, March 2 – The Great Unknown

Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

If you ever wanted a reminder of why game stacks can take down GPP’s, well take a look at that 4 OT shoot-out last night between the Hawks and Bulls which ended with the Bulls winning 168-161. Trae Young dropped 87 fantasy points, Zach LaVine at 75 and Lauri Markannen a 61 – the top three raw point scorers and the only plays that went for 60+ fantasy points. If you game stacked this spot last night you are likely smiling from ear to ear as you look at your bankroll this morning!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Saturday Slate Breakdown:

If you play on FantasyDraft consistently one of the things you notice is that they try to be very strategic with their slates, especially on the weekends when the game times are staggered and this is one of the reasons I simply love their product. Rather than cut the slate into multiple smaller slates they simply adjust and give you a different experience than the other sites will offer.

Tonight is one of those slates as they have ignored the 5PM EST game between the Cavs and Pistons (thank you for that), and also cut off the lone 7PM game (Magic/Pacers) and 7:30PM EST game (Nets/Heat) starting this six game slate at 8:30 PM EST.

So said another way – FantasyDraft has eliminated three of the four lowest totals and pace game environments from our player pool. Thank you in advance.

So this leaves us with a 6 game slate that is LOADED with stars and you are going to want to find a way to get multiple top-tier plays into your builds tonight.

Here is the issue though – for as many stars as we have there are also a few with MAJOR injury question marks that could turn this slate into CHAOS!

It all starts with Russell Westbrook ($20.2K) who becomes auto play numero uno assuming Paul George is ruled out again for the Thunder. The “play Westbrook when the other guy is out” mantra has been around since KD was on OKC, as solo Westbrook is basically a guaranteed triple-double with the ability to destroy a slate.

Westbrook has played the Spurs twice this season – going for 51 and 83 (double OT game) fantasy points, in games where PG13 was on the court. This is a do not get cute scenario – play Westbrook.

It also pushes Dennis Schroder ($9.9K) into similar territory as he will be locked into 30-35 minutes and has gone for 30+ fantasy points in 8 of his 10 starts this season. Markieff Morris ($8.5K) actually drew the start last game against the Sixers but only played 19 minutes and I wonder if Billy Donovan will give Schroder the start here against the Spurs. Either way – Schroder is going to play 30-35 minutes and has more usage upside arguably coming off the bench.

The other big game of the night is the Sixers and Warriors, and although we already know that Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic will be out, there is some question as to what the Warriors will do as Klay Thompson is questionable to play.

With this game tipping off at 8:30PM EST, again the beauty of this later lock, we should have all the lineup news we need on FantasyDraft in what looks like two of the must have exposure spots on the slate.

NBA DFS – Building Your Core:

The Klay Thompson news in many ways is critical here tonight as a fully healthy Warriors squad versus a short-handed Sixers team could end up being a game where the high-priced stars struggle to hit their ceiling but if Klay is out, like he was the first time these two met – we could see this game stay more competitive.

Stephen Curry ($17K) dropped 59 fantasy points last time the Warriors faced the Sixers in a game that Klay missed and at this price point, he screams upside in a pace up spot for the Warriors. With the Sixers having strong wing defenders in Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler that they can throw at Kevin Durant ($17K), I think paying for Curry is the right way to attack the studs from Golden State.

With Embiid out and DeMarcus Cousins ($14.9K) now playing back to back games over 30 minutes, the ceiling is similarly sky-high for Boogie in this spot and he becomes the Warrior I would most likely pair with Curry assuming Klay is indeed out.

There is some value that we could use here as either Alfonzo McKinnie ($6.2K) or Andre Igoudala ($6.8K) could start in place of Klay. Last time these teams faced off, McKinnie drew the start and both players saw 27 minutes of court time with neither playing going over 20 fantasy points.

On the Sixers side of this game, we should continue to expect the trio of Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler to carry the load with Joel Embiid sidelined.

Simmons is the priciest of the bunch at $15.6K but he also has the best match-up of the three as Butler/Harris will have to deal with the wing defense of Iggy/Durant/Draymond with Boogie clogging up the middle.

Simmons put up 51 fantasy points in the first meeting between these two teams, in a game that Embiid was able to play and happens to be coming off a 50+ fantasy point triple double against the Thunder the last time out.

Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are both interesting value plays but it looks like they are going to split the Center minutes about 20 per game so counting on them as “core plays” may be a bit ambitious.

NBA DFS – Spurs Game Stack:

If Klay Thompson ends up playing tonight, I think you can make the case that the Warriors starters are all too pricey and with it being a national TV game, I imagine the ownership in this game will be a tick higher which makes it an interesting fade case regardless. With Russell Westbrook locked and loaded in our line-ups tonight, simply running it back with some San Antonio Spurs exposure may be the best course of action.

The Spurs duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan becomes an interesting run back stack with the pricey Westbrook as the Spurs stars will cost you only $14K each on this slate which is low considering the 50+ fantasy upside both players have.

Aldridge ($14.1K) dropped 80 fantasy points in 48 minutes of court time in the earlier OT meeting with the Thunder while DeRozan, who needs “only” 43 fantasy points to return value has hit and exceeded that mark in three of his last four games.

The Spurs opted to go with their big lineup against the Pistons last game out which saw Jakob Poeltl ($6.8K) draw the start, play 34 minutes and rack up a 11/14 line with 37.5 fantasy points. If Poetl draws the start again tonight against Steven Adams, he will likely be one of the more popular value plays on the board and for good reason!

A five man Thunder/Spurs stack of Westbrook-Schroder-LMA-DeRoza-Poeltl will leave you with $11.5K per player for the last three spots on your roster which makes this a strong core stack that seems entirely too affordable.

NBA DFS – Late Night Hammer:

OK maybe this is a stretch considering that the last three games on the slate top-off just 30 minutes after lock, but with so much focus on the Thunder/Spurs with PG13 out and the Warriors/Sixers match-up, the last three games on this slate may get a bit over-looked.

Anthony Davis has already announced that he will sit out tonight against the Nuggets and although that normally would be the biggest news on the slate, the fact AD is playing 20 minutes a night even when he suits up has made this far less a story.

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Julius Randle ($14.5K) is coming off back to back games where he is averaging 50 fantasy points and now has no AD to deal with in the Pelicans front court. If you step back and think about this slate we have listed off a handful of plays in this price range with 50-60 fantasy point upside – Randle, LMA, DeRozan, Cousins etc – so there is merit to paying down a bit for your stars on this slate.

Nikola Jokic ($18.2K) may be the forgotten star on this slate as with so many other bigger names available, (by the way we haven’t even touched on LeBron versus the Suns), will people really prioritize him with a 13 point spread and the risk of a blowout?

Paul Millsap ($11.9K) had a recent stretch of 30+ minutes and 46, 52 and 55 fantasy points and I think after two mediocre outings against OKC and Utah, people will forget about him tonight. This could end up being another 50+ point spot for Millsap at a price point that again simply feels too cheap.

The Bucks/Jazz game is really tough to write up but this could be the game that turns the slate upside down. Giannis on a back to back after games where he sat out and had minute restrictions? If Giannis sits then we have to deal with Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton chalk and hey remember the other night when the Jazz were without Ricky Rubio and Raul Neto and Royce O’Neal was chalk value? O’Neale played 40 minutes but only racked up 16 fantasy points and people will likely completely ignore him after that forgettable performance.

So What Does it All Mean:

Giving you a sample lineup would be laughable writing this 12 hours before lock – if you have not noticed, this slate is completely up in the air.

We need to get Klay Thompson news.

We need to get Giannis news.

We need confirmation that PG13 is out – keep in mind, he is out in the game notes but those can be unreliable.

Oh by the way it is the NBA and at any point the entire league could get ruled out for LOAD MANAGEMENT.

So here is my advice – take all this information and start mapping out paths while we wait on news. If you are not going to be around before lock, this might be the slate you skip – you are going to need all the news before you can really build your rosters. I will make sure to keep you all posted on Twitter @2LockSports. Good luck all!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings.