Good day and greetings from your NCAA Basketball Bets to win host. Saturday’s big schedule gives us some quality plays where we can take advantage of the line.
Friday our NCAA Basketball Bets went 0-1 knocking the overall record to 91-78-2.
For those seeing this for the first time, I will be giving NCAA basketball best bets for the upcoming days games having written this article the night before. The lines I quote are the live lines at the time of writing.
Lines are very important and are key to creating value. On average, 1 out of every 14 games moving at least 1 1/2 points from the opening number will land (the final score will be within the line move) so we want to make sure to get the proper number.
All times Eastern, here we go with the NCAA basketball best bets to win:
Oklahoma State +7 versus Kansas, Noon
The power rating indicates Kansas should win by 12, but there’s more to this story. For one, Kansas under-performs badly on the road. They are 15-0 straight up at home and only 2-7 on the road, and they have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 away games.
In addition, Kansas has played 8 more home games than away which really messes with the power rating. OKST is certainly not the greatest team out there but they are playable at home under the right circumstance. I think they play Kansas strong with a chance for an upset win.
Penn State +7 1/2 versus Wisconsin, 1 pm
These 2 teams have completely switched directions from early January when Wisky won at Penn State by 19 points. As of now, PSU has covered their last 8 games in a row while Wisky has dropped 4/5 ATS including 0-2 at home.
Let’s go with recent play and take the points. Neither the power rating nor the public percentage knocks us away from this play.
NCAA Basketball Best Bets To Win – Home Underdog Play
Wisconsin Green Bay +3 versus Northern Kentucky, 1 pm
This looks like a very live underdog in this spot. NK is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games while WGB is 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last 4 home games, winning the last game outright as a 4 point underdog.
Common opponent play suggests WGB can play right with NK and pull off an upset. Let’s take the points.
Drexel +5 versus Northeastern, 4 pm
Drexel has been good overall ATS wise (covering 8 out of 10) and great at home (going 5-0). Northeastern is no push-over today but Drexel should have enough to cover according to common opponent play.
Central Michigan +1 versus Toledo, 4:30 pm
Central Michigan keeps rolling along, now taking the last 10 games ATS. No reason to abandon them now, as common opponent play suggest this trend will continue.
Earlier this season Toledo won at home but did not cover against CM, and now CM has a chance to avenge that loss at home in the midst of a dream ATS run. I will be on them once again.
Western Michigan +5 versus Ball State, 4:30 pm
Western has played solid basketball recently while Ball State continues to struggle ATS, losing its last 8 of 10 overall. No need to over think this game here.
Common opponent play favors WM, and the power rating being a little higher will keep the line where we need it and the public off Western Michigan. Let’s take the points.
Rutgers +8 1/2 versus Iowa, 5 pm
When you think of this match-up, the first thought is a blow-out for Iowa, the home team. However times have changed dramatically. Rutgers has covered 5 in a row while Iowa has lost 5 in a row against the number.
Recent play verifies this is not a fluke. Rutgers has pulled off some road upsets and hung tough in others, and I believe this game will be no exception. Let’s take the points again with Rutgers hoping for a possible outright win.
Utah State +2 versus Nevada, 8:30 pm
What a great little game from a couple of very good teams. Nevada is ranked number 13 in the country and Utah State could make its season by winning at home tonight after being crushed in Nevada earlier this year.
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It’s recent play that is tipping the scales toward Utah State for me. Nevada has dropped their last 3 games ATS while Utah State has won 4 in a row. Utah State has won and covered 4 of 5 at home with the only ATS loss being a 17 point win laying 20 points.
The power rating says this game should be a pick, so it’s the recent play of both teams that should spell the difference and give the home team a victory. Let’s take the small points hoping for an outright win.
Georgia +11 1/2 versus Florida, 8:30 pm
The Bulldogs have awakened from their ATS slumber, having now covered 4 in a row. Florida has yet to prove home court means anything to them, with their only 3 ATS wins in the last 10 games coming on the road. They are 0-4 ATS at home.
Let’s give the nod to Georgia trusting they can keep this game close. The road team has covered 5 of 6 in the series indicating the rivalry factor can neutralize any home court advantage.
Cal-State Fullerton +1 versus UC Davis, 10 pm
UC Davis is now 4-12 against the number in their last 16 home games, while Fullerton plays very well against the spread versus sub par teams. In the series between these 2 teams, Fullerton is 5-1 ATS and the road team is 3-1 in recent play. Let’s give this late night game a try.
That’s it for today.