DraftKings Early NBA Picks March 3: Stack Hawks/Bulls

We have a seven game Sunday but for DraftKings NBA, it is broken into an early and a main slate. The early features three games, including a rematch of the Bulls and Hawks that put on the most thrilling game in the league on Friday. They may still be gassed from that four overtime epic, and Taurean Prince is going to miss that game. Don’t expect a repeat in Chicago, but there is still a lot of fantasy goodness in that one. Despite just three games, this slate looks like the better of the two.

Last night the money line was fairly low for this year at 278.5 DraftKings points. Five of my ten lineups places in the 20 max and I managed to come out a little ahead, but to much Westbrook and Tyler Johnson and no shares of LeBron meant my best lineup was only 316.25.

DaRealistGuru took this one down with 386.75 DraftKings points, which was 10.75 ahead of second place. That’s a lot of separation. He built with Giannis and Donovan Mitchell and got big value out of Middleton, Derrick Favors, BroLo, Joe Ingles, and Darren Collison. He even survived the busted value of Korver.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 in free DraftKings entry tickets with your first deposit of $5 or more.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Guard is where we are going to spend most of our money this afternoon. Kyrie Irving put up 50.5 DraftKings points in the first game with Houston, but Chris Paul also missed that game. I expect Irving to struggle some with CP3 defense on him.

Even if the Celtics had the same situation as the first meeting, I couldn’t possibly justify paying $300 more for Irving than Trae Young. Young was one of the best players in the entire league in February. He kicked off March by becoming the first rookie ever to record more than 45 points and 15 assists in the same game. I don’t care that it was a four overtime game. Young’s last ten games have been as good as any rookie ever, including some guys named Michael Jordan and Stephen Curry. I’m not fading him until he cools off. If he cools off.

Honorable Mention:

To me, there’s no reason to fade Young. I think he’ll struggle to hit 40 DraftKings points today, but I could argue that Irving and Paul will against each other as well. I don’t mind using Paul as my other guard here, but again, we should be able to get whoever we want today. I’d rather find the $1,300 for Irving or pay down.

Dennis Smith Jr. has only played more than 30 minutes once in the last six games. Don’t you just freaking HATE the Knicks? Forget the fact that this once proud franchise is now a laughingstock. The rotations make DFS nearly impossible. Still, DSJ should play at least 25 minutes against one of the worst point guard defenses in the league. I like this as a GPP play.

Dark Horses:

Kris Dunn was one of the few players on either side that didn’t have a big game on Friday. Dunn only managed 27.25 points, which was exactly 5x value. In four overtimes. I really only want Dunn if LaVine misses this game. If he can’t play more than 32 minutes and hit more than 5x value in a game in which 68 minutes were played, there’s not much hope for him right now.

Mudiay is cannibalizing the value of Smith all while not outplaying him. Allonzo Trier is out of the picture for now, but again, there’s no reason to mess with the Knicks today. I want precisely one Knick. Maybe two if I take a shot with DSJ. Forget the rest until some semblance of normalcy shows up in the Fizdale rotations.

Marcus Smart is about as low as I want to go at the point, and I really don’t even want to go that low. Smart has done a good job of hitting value lately, but there really isn’t any upside.

One interesting trend from Friday is that Ryan Arcidiacono played six more minutes than Dunn against Atlanta. Arcidiacono did very little with those minutes, but on a short slate like this, a value play that gets 30 minutes of court time is a good GPP dart.

My pick: Young(PG); Young(PG)

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden dropped 60 DraftKings points on Boston in the first meeting, but again, that was with Paul out. I really doubt he hits 60 today. The issue here isn’t whether Harden will hit value. It’s whether Harden will outscore the field. This is a slate where price wont really matter. Harden is one of two that has a legit shot at clearing 60. If you want that upside, you have to pay for it.

Zach LaVine shot so much on Friday that his back got sore. This is the NBA though. They have some of the best trainers money can buy, so I expect LaVine to be out there sniping Atlanta again today. I’m playing him alongside Young in every lineup I make.

Honorable Mention:

The price is finally starting to drop on Lou Williams, and there really isn’t much reason for it. LouWill has at least 27 DraftKings points in eight straight, and has topped 5x value in five of those. I haven’t liked Williams much lately, but I like him against the Knicks, especially for cheaper than CP3.

For as much as I want to play Williams, Patrick Beverley is an all around better play right now. His floor is lower than Williams, but Beverley is playing more minutes, and has topped 6x value in three of the last five. I have no issue playing four guards, but I think I like Beverley over Williams even if we don’t consider the price differential.

Dark Horses:

Kent Bazemore was an absolute disaster on Friday. The teams combined for 329 points, and Bazemore scored just four of those in 31 minutes. The minutes will be there with Prince out, but it’s hard to trust Bazemore after that ugly showing.

I like Damyean Dotson, but I hate the Knicks rotations. His minutes have been all over the place since the break, so it’s really hard to trust anything. I would rather take a stab with Deandre Bembry. He isn’t super involved in the offense, but he’s at least guaranteed playing time.

My pick: LaVine(SG), Bembry(G); Harden(SG), Beverley(G)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Otto Porter was a monster on Friday with 55 DraftKings points, and will be again. I would expect his total to be around mid 30’s instead of mid 50’s, but I still think Porter outscores everyone else at this position and his price isn’t that much higher than everyone else.

The departure of Tobias Harris has only served to stabilize the output of Danilo Gallinari. You’re getting somewhere between 28 and 35 DraftKings points. No more, no less. That’s outstanding for cash games, and it works for GPP’s on small slates such as this as well.

Honorable Mention:

I really want to ignore Kevin Knox. I really do. After all, the Knicks have. Knox has only played 49 minutes in the last two games combined. A closer look reveals that the Knicks are only pulling Knox once he is cold from the floor. Knox is just 6-28 from the floor in those two games. That is pretty telling. The Knicks can pull Knox because they “don’t want to win.” In reality, I think they keep pulling him so he doesn’t lose confidence. There isn’t going to be a lot of separation today. You have to come up with a really off the wall pick to take this thing down. For that reason, I really like the upside of Knox.

Dark Horses:

There are a lot of lineup destroyers down here today, but not all of them are overtly honest about it. P.J. Tucker has been as low as 11 DraftKings points and as high as 46…..all within the last ten days. Landry Shamet has been as low as 8 and as high as 32 in the last week.

Hell, if that’s all it takes to make your lineup, you may as well save a bundle and go with Shaq Harrison. He can do the same thing for $3,100. If I absolutely had to take a player from this tier it would be Wayne Selden. Selden has at least 6x value in four straight, and he is the only one that costs just $3,000.

My pick: Porter(SF), Selden(F); Knox(SF), Selden(F)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Lauri Markkanen played a staggering 54 minutes on Friday. That kind of load makes his 61.75 DraftKings points seem almost pedestrian. Don’t get cute. You need Markkanen in your lineup too. All of the cashing lineups are going to have about the same core. Get your separation with the value plays. The core today is just too strong to fade it.

Honorable Mention:

Montrezl Harrell continues to score right around 30 DraftKings points and sprinkles in a 50 here and there to make sure we are still paying attention. The Knicks front isn’t as weak as people think, so I don’t expect a 50 here. However, Harrell does have a shot at 6x value.

Jayson Tatum is very tempting for the price, but keep in mind that he mustered just 12.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Still, Tatum has the kind of high upside that can decide a GPP today. This is a day to stick to cash games if you can’t stomach finishing way out of the money. We have to take some sizeable risks to get rewarded today.

Kenneth Faried chewed up Boston for 35 DraftKings points in the first meeting, so if he’s in there, I’m interested. The only question is how having Capela around will impact that total.

Dark Horses:

Henry Ellenson has been a force for the Knicks, so that likely means that they will phase him out of the rotation. I’m only partially kidding. This is a good matchup for Ellenson since Vonleh has fallen out of favor for whatever reason. Once I say that, Vonleh goes for 32 DraftKings points against Cleveland.

This is a spot where JaMychal Green should thrive. Of course, there is risk involved since he only plays about half the game. Against the Knicks, this is definitely a risk worth taking.

I never thought I would see the day where Vince Carter would play a minutes total greater than his age, but he did just that on Friday. Of course he came out of that a little banged up, but Carter is the only four still standing. John Collins and Omari Spellman are both out. Hello, Vinsanity, 2019 style!

My pick: Markkanen(PF), Faried(UTIL); N/A

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Clint Capela mauled Boston for 49.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I don’t know that he’ll do it again, but Capela poses a problem for Boston because of his size.

It’s mostly a barren wasteland at center unless you use Markkanen or Harrell here, but Al Horford is a solid play. He was solid against Houston the first time around, but I don’t see a lot of upside here. Horford is one of those guys that you really only use in cash games, even on a slate like this.