It’s not over ’til it’s over: The case for Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund trail Tottenham by three goals heading into their Champions League round of 16 second leg, but all hope is not yet lost.

Borussia Dortmund were humbled 3-0 by Tottenham at Wembley in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie. Needless to say, they’ll need an incredible performance if they’re going to move onto the quarterfinals.

As they’ve already shown in the competition this season, however, they’re capable of beating elite opponents, by big scores, at home. If Dortmund fans are looking for reasons to be optimistic, they should look no further than their 4-0 group stage win against Atletico. And there are reasons to be (very, very cautiously) optimistic.

In the first leg, Mauricio Pochettino got everything right, despite an injury-ravaged squad. He played with three center-backs and deployed Jan Vertonghen as a wing-back. The decision worked. The Belgian defender set up Heung-min Son’s opening goal and scored the third, helping Spurs walk away with a 3-0 win. In the second leg, Spurs get Harry Kane back, allowing Son to play in a more natural supporting role.

But while the story of the match was Pochettino’s adjustments, it’s worth acknowledging that Lucien Favre was also dealing with a depleted squad. With Marco Reus, Paco Alcacer and Manuel Akanji injured, Favre’s starting XI featured players in unnatural positions, particularly in defense. The attack, meanwhile, was lacked inspiration without its best player, Reus, up top.

With all three players back, Dortmund have some reason to believe they can come back and win. If there’s a blueprint, it’s surely that 4-0 home win against Atletico in the group stage. In that match, Dortmund found success using their incredible speed to transition from defending to attacking. The return of Reus and Alcacer gives Dortmund both more options going forward and two lethal finishers.

In the first leg, Mario Gotze and Mahmoud Dahoud were unable to create a threat in the middle of the field. Dortmund were forced to work on the edges, unable to get into the middle and the more dangerous scoring areas. That won’t be the case in the second leg. Reus will be able to use his speed and power to drive play through the middle, which will open up chances for Alcacer and Jadon Sancho. The Dortmund captain has 17 goals this season, while Alcacer has 13 and is averaging a goal every 85 minutes.

Akanji has been Dortmund’s best defender and is responsible for organizing the back line. One of the reasons Dortmund struggled was the lack of consistency in the back four. When Akanji was out, Abdou Diallo, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Omer Toprak and Julian Weigl were mixed and matched at center-back. While Dortmund continued to succeed in the Bundesliga, the constant change at changes made it hard for defenders to develop any consistency or familiarity with each other. The return of Akanji allows Dortmund to return to their comfort level at the back and should reduce the numbers of errors Dortmund made in the first leg.

The return of Akanji will give cover to full-back Achraf Hakimi, who uses his speed to join the attack at every chance he gets. Hakimi is the definition of a modern full-back that is more attack-oriented than defensive-minded. One of the mistakes made by Hakimi in the first leg directly lead to a Spurs goal. That can’t happen in the second leg if Dortmund are going to advance. Dortmund need Hakimi to use his speed to break on the attack whenever possible. When Hakimi is able to start the attack and make overlapping runs, he’s a threat in the offensive half of the field. Hakimi was great against Atletico, allowing Dortmund to make an immediate transition from defending to attacking, catching Atletico out of position.

While three goals is a lot to overcome, it’s not impossible. Indeed, in the quarterfinal just last season, Roma came back to beat Barcelona 3-0 in the second leg after losing 4-1 in the first. This Dortmund side may be better than Roma, and Tottenham, who have been in a bad run of form since the first leg, are certainly no Barcelona. In front of the Westfalenstadion’s famous Yellow Wall, Favre’s side have a chance, however slim, at a famous comeback.