DFS NBA – The Top Salary Value Plays – Go With The Young Gun

DFS NBA – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any DFS NBA slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary.

We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like LeBron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or even Paul George, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value so we can find the Top Value Plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel!

For example, the other night Paul George was priced at $9,600 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 48 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sure enough, Paul George returned value and exceeded it by scoring 54.8.

This is why we’re switching up this fantasy basketball article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates. Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

In addition to breaking down salary and a players value with their price tag, we are also going to add another section of pairing top-tier and low tier players together for your lineups. We can mix and match all we want with 150+ lineups (we don’t do that though) but in reality, there are usually two or three players we should throw in a lineup together.

Let’s not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 7 game Fantasy Basketball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel!

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Top Tier Plays

Trae Young vs. Miami Heat

Salary: $9,300 – Needs to score 46.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (60.45 for 6.5x)

Now this is a very dangerous play tonight but Trae Young is going to be looking for revenge after being ejected off a BS tech call during yesterdays game. Young has scored 20.8, 39.5. 21.3, 62, 87 (5 OT Game), and 28.5 (ejected in the 3rd) fantasy points since starting the second half of the season. The young man is on one. Young is averaging 30 minutes per game, 35.8 fantasy points per game, and 1.19 fantasy points per minute.

He does go into a difficult match-up tonight versus the Miami Heat though. The Heat are giving up 45.12 fantasy points per game. They are also allowing opposing point guards to average 22 points, 7 assist, and 5 rebounds. The Hawks are giving Trae Young the green light and playing him near max minutes lately. He’s a go for me even with this match-up.

Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $11,500 – Needs to score 57.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (74.75 for 6.5x)

The Greek Freak is priced pretty high tonight but for good reasoning, he’s facing the Phoenix Suns. Giannis is coming off of a huge game versus the Utah Jazz on Saturday where he scored 79 fantasy points. The Bucks also made it clear that there are no precautionary tabs on the Greek Freak for the rest of the season, so we should feel safe locking him in. He’s averaging 57.3 fantasy points per game and 1.73 fantasy points per minute.

The Phoenix Suns aren’t THAT bad at defending the small forward position as they only give up 40.73 fantasy points. The Greek Freak had a good game versus them in November, recording 35 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assist in 36 minutes and off of 87.5% shooting. Make room for the Greek Freak tonight as he should have another dominating performance.

Nikola Jokic vs. San Antonio Spurs

Salary: $10,300 – Needs to score 51.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.95 for 6.5x)

There are only about three “high” priced centers I will target tonight when constructing a line-up and Nikola Jokic is at the top of that list. He’s averaging 50.2 fantasy points per game and 1.61 fantasy points per minute. He has also only found 5x value 2 times to kick off the second half of the season so it’s a slow start for him. But he gets to face the San Antonio Spurs who allow centers near his 5x value mark per game.

The Spurs allow opposing centers to average 21 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. They also give up 52.88 fantasy points per game. Facing off against LaMarcus Aldridge, Jokic is averaging 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist in 5 games. Also in the last match-up on December 28th, Jokic recorded 21 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assist after a poor performance versus the Spurs the night before of just 4 points, 10 assist, and 4 rebounds. Jokic is averaging his 5x value for fantasy points and he should be able to do that again tonight.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Top Tier Plays

Donovan Mitchell vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $9,300 – Needs to score 46.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (60.45 for 6.5x)

Mitchell is coming off of a huge game versus the Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 64.6 fantasy points off of 46 points, 6 assist and 3 rebounds. He now gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans who are just a mess of a team. Now, Mitchell usually isn’t a top play unless multiple Jazz players are out but tonight, he should be able to do more than what he averages.

The Pelicans are allowing opposing shooting guards to average 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. They are also allowing them to average 41.63 fantasy points. When Mitchell first faced the Pelicans this season, they were on good terms and full health. Mitchell put up 22 points with 6 assist and 2 rebounds which isn’t that good. But with the way this Pelicans team currently is, we should see a better stat-line.

Julius Randle vs. Utah Jazz

Salary: $9,000 – Needs to score 45 fantasy points or more to exceed value (58.5 for 6.5x)

Julius Randle has had to really increase the way he plays and how he plays as AD and Jrue Holiday are on their way out. He’s currently averaging 30 minutes per game with 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist. He has scored 50+ fantasy points in 3 of the 6 games since kicking off the second half of the season also. He’s averaging 37 fantasy points per game and 1.23 fantasy points per minute.

Randle now faces a pretty tough Utah defensive team versus the power forward position. They are only giving up 43.46 fantasy points per game. They allow them to average a stat-line of 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist. While this looks like a tough one on paper, Randle is the go to guy now as AD only sees 20-25 minutes per game and even faces the “load management” tag.

DeAndre Ayton vs. Milwaukee Bucks 

Salary: $8,200 – Needs to score 41 fantasy points or more to exceed value (53.3 for 6.5x)

The young Suns center, DeAndre Ayton, is returning to his dominating self that we saw earlier in the season. He’s coming off of a good performance versus the Lakers where he recorded 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist for 50.5 fantasy points. He’s also averaging 35.40 fantasy points per game. He does have a “higher” price tonight but facing the Bucks, he knows how to score and grab boards.

In their first match-up, Ayton recorded 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks are giving up 51.57 fantasy points to the center position. They are also allowing centers to average 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assist. If the Suns keep feeding DeAndre Ayton, he should have another stat filled night.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Mid Tier Plays

Kyle Kuzma vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)

The battle of L.A is tonight and why not go for another young player to shoot for the spotlight? We know what Lebron James is capable of but we already have a high-priced guy like Giannis Antetokounmpo hogging the salary up. Kuzma is averaging 31.7 fantasy points per game and .99 fantasy points per minute. But Kuzma has had two underwhelming performances of 24 and 26.5 fantasy points. Tonight should be a lot different.

Kuzma’s shot wasn’t falling in the previous match-up where he only recorded 16.5 fantasy points in 23 minutes on January 31st. But the Clippers are allowing opposing small forwards to average 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 40.53 fantasy points.

Jamal Murray vs. San Antonio Spurs

Salary: $6.100 – Needs to score 30.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (39.65 for 6.5x)

Jamal Murray has now scored 30+ fantasy points in the 5 games since kicking off the second half of the season. He’s averaging 33.2 fantasy points per game and  1 fantasy point per minute. He has been on top of minutes also, playing 33, 32, and 32 minutes in his past three games. Minutes and his match-up tonight call for a great salary relief.

The Spurs are giving up 41.93 fantasy points per game to the opposing shooting guard. They also allow them to average 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist. Similar to Nikola Jokic, Murray didn’t have a good showing in the first game versus the Spurs but followed it up with 31 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assist versus the Spurs the next night.

Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $6,000 – Needs to score 30 fantasy points or more to exceed value 39 for 6.5x)

Dennis Smith Jr. is at a very good price that should make for an even better match-up versus the fast paced Sacramento Kings. DSJ is averaging just 27.3 fantasy points per game and .97 fantasy points per minute. But he has been struggling to reach value since kicking off the second half of the season and Coach Fizdale does not help with that issue at all. So be cautious when playing a New York Knicks player.

The Sacramento Kings are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to point guards with 49.87. They allow them to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game also. While this could easily turn into a blowout for the Kings, if it stays close then Dennis Smith Jr. has more opportunities to go off.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Mid Tier Plays

Mitchell Robinson vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $7,100 – Needs to score 35.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (46.15 for 6.5x)

Give me more Mitch please and thank you! Robinson has scored 47.3, 60.8, 29.4, and 43.1 fantasy points since kicking off the second half of the season and rolling out as a starter. He now gets to face a Sacramento Kings team that will probably have no way of stopping him in the paint.

The Kings are currently giving up 56.64 fantasy points to opposing centers. They allow them to average 21 points, 19 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The Kings actually give up the most rebounds to centers so we should see Mitchell Robinson at least reach a double double tonight. But once again this is a Knicks team that currently has a head coach who can roll out any type of line-up so be careful up until lock.

Khris Middleton vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $7,500 – Needs to score 37.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (48.75 for 6.5x)

Middleton is averaging near 40 fantasy points since kicking off the second half of the season as he has scored near or over 40 fantasy points in four of the six games now. He’s averaging 32.23 fantasy points per game and 1.03 fantasy points per minute. While he’s averaging 31 minutes per game, he has actually been playing near the low or mid 20’s so far this second half.

Middleton gets to face the Phoenix Suns who are giving up 40.92 fantasy points to the shooting guard position. They are also allowing them to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Middleton is still doing work with the full return of Giannis Antetokounmpo and we should expect to see him do more work in the second half of this season with the playoff pushing close.

Derrick White vs. Denver Nuggets

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value (40.3 for 6.5x)

White has now scored 37.2 and 36.6 fantasy points in back to back games against the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder. He;s averaging 25 minutes per game with 22.85 fantasy points per game and .91 fantasy points per minute. White has faced this Denver Nuggets team in back to back nights already where he scattered numbers in almost every stat column, recording 10 points, 6 rebounds, 6 steals, and 3 assist.

The Denver Nuggets are a pretty difficult team to face for opposing point guards, averaging 20 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. They also give up 44.32 fantasy points to the position. All we need is for Derrick White to see his 25 minutes and make the most of it as the 31 fantasy points is a higher ceiling for him but he seems to be on a roll at the same time.

DFS NBA – Draftkings: The Low Tier Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $3,900 – Needs to score 19.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (25.35 for 6.5x)

I guess I was a few days early on the SGA train as he has now scored 20.3, 27.8, and 27.3 fantasy points in his last three games. He is not the most consistent point guard by any means but he has a low salary price which makes him a nice risk play to use. It’s the battle of Los Angeles tonight so I expect all players to show up and show out for this one.

The Los Angeles Lakers are allowing opposing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game, plus give up 47.41 fantasy points to the position. In their last match-up, SGA did record 10 points with 2 rebounds, 3 assist and 2 steals. A similar performance like that and we get our 5x value that we need from a low-priced guy.

Brook Lopez vs. Phoenix Suns

Salary: $5,500 – Needs to score 27.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (35.75 for 6.5x)

We can actually count this as a mid tier play also as Brook Lopez has been showing up and dominating lately besides the one game versus the Los Angeles Lakers. He responded to that game with a 43.5 fantasy point outing versus the Utah Jazz, notching another huge return value since kicking off the second half of the season. He’s averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game and .91 fantasy points per minute.

Lopez gets to face a Phoenix Suns team that gives up the third most fantasy points to centers with 61.87. They also allow them to average 27 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 assist per game, also throw in the 2.5 blocks. Lopez is at a really good salary price that will help create room for multiple top stars on tonights slate.

Mason Plumlee vs. San Antonio Spurs

Salary: $4,400 – Needs to score 22 fantasy points or more to exceed value (28.6 for 6.5x)

There are two games that I’m liking on tonight’s slate and those are the Lakers versus the Clippers and this Denver vs. San Antonio game. They both have great value plays that could go low owned. Plumlee has returned to his usually form with scoring 34.3 and 31.3 fantasy points in his past two games. He’s averaging 20 minutes per game while averaging 23 fantasy points per game and 1.15 fantasy points per minute.

Plumlee was a monster on the boards in the two games versus the Spurs, grabbing a total of 18 in those games. The Spurs also allowing opposing power forwards to average 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assist, plus 47.45 fantasy points per game. Plumlee should easily reach his ceiling of 22 fantasy points though tonight, continuing his streak of returning 6-7x value.

DFS NBA – Fanduel: The Low Tier Plays

Landry Shamet vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $4,600 – Needs to score 23 fantasy points or more to exceed value (29.9 for 6.5x)

Just like SGA, I was too early for the Landry Shamet call also as he has put in a 30.8 and 24.6 fantasy point performance. He now gets to join the fun lineup for the battle at the Staples Center. Shamet is averaging 21 minutes per game and usually sees the starting line-up. He just can’t make it the best of his opportunities.

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Shamet gets to face a Lakers defense that is allowing opposing point guards to average 23 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. They also give up 46.56 fantasy points to the position. Shamet had a very underwhelming performance versus the Lakers on January 29th, recording just 6 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assist. But he seems to be finding his footing and being at a low salary price, we can afford it.

Noah Vonleh vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $3,900 – Needs to score 19.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (25.35 for 6.5x)

While hitting a low salary price like $3,900, you expect that player to most likely be your dropped score but with Vonleh, don’t expect it. He has now had two good outings, recording 29 and 36.9 fantasy points, versus the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers. He is averaging 23.90 fantasy points per game and .95 fantasy points per minute. This could actually be a very producing line-up addition tonight as the Knicks face the fast paced Kings.

The Sacramento Kings are giving up 48.54 fantasy points to opposing power forwards. They allow them to average 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. The Kings give up the fifth most points and third most rebounds to the power forward position so why not throw Vonleh out there. He is also seeing a good amount of minutes as he has played 22 and 27 minutes in the last two games.

Alex Len vs. Miami Heat

Salary: $3,700 – Needs to score 18.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (24.05 for 6.5x)

This play rides solely on the news of John Collins who has been out with an illness so if Collins is out once again, expect to play (and eat chalk) Alex Len. Len has turned in two huge performances while stepping in as center, scoring 45.5 and 47.8 fantasy points. While I wouldn’t play him facing Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo could be the starter also if Hassan is out. Also, Len is priced very low so why not use him as the free square?

The Miami Heat are currently giving up the second fewest points to centers with 49.84 fantasy points. They are allowing opposing centers to average 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. There are many factors that roll into this play but watch the news up until lock and if John Collins and Hassan Whiteside are out, use Alex Len as the salary relief we are looking for.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis across FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft.