FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 3/4 – Play the Euros!
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Monday, 3/4
Welcome back to the Monday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. As always, my goal is to help you get your research started for tonight’s NBA DFS slate on FanDuel.
On this snowy March Monday, we happen to have a 7-game main slate that locks at 7:30. If you’ve got a case of the “Mondays” then what better to cope than to dig into this slate with me and figure out who we are playing tonight in our cash games and GPPs.
I know I haven’t talked much about this lately, but I really can’t stress bankroll management enough at this point in the season. Make sure you’re playing whatever amount you’re comfortable with losing on a nightly basis and always remember to play some cash games to try to offset your losses in GPPs.
Contest selection is also a huge part of DFS and while I like to toss a lineup or two into some of the big GPPs on either site, I usually look for smaller contests and single entry contests to enter most of the time.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
My goal when I first changed the layout of the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
Let’s start our analysis by looking at Vegas totals and relevant injury news as a way to begin the process of narrowing our player pools.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: First Look
Injury Report
OUT: Lonzo Ball, Dante Exum, Frank Nkilitina, T.J. Warren, Mario Hezonja, Wilson Chandler, Marvin Bagley III, Trey Lyles, Omari Spellman
DOUBTFUL: John Collins
QUESTIONABLE: Goran Dragic, Trey Burke, Taurean Prince, Lance Stephenson, Etwaun Moore, Anthony Davis, Hassan Whiteside, DeAndre Jordan
PROBABLE: Bryn Forbes
The biggest question marks here are AD and Whiteside. If AD sits out then we are going to want to consider Julius Randle in GPPs. And if Whiteside is out then you are absolutely going to want some exposure to Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk in all formats.
Vegas Info
***The Hawks, Clippers, and Knicks are all playing the second half of a back-to-back.
***The highest total on the board is the Lakers-Clippers game at 238 with the Lakers being 4-point favorites.
***The Denver-San Antonio and Miami-Atlanta games are both projected to be very close tonight with the first one being a pick-em and the second one being only a 1-point spread.
***The Kings are the biggest favorites on the slate as they are favored by 11 at home against the D-league team known as the New York Knicks.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to help build that bankroll.
LeBron James (12400)
LeBron is the top stud to pay up for in cash games tomorrow. He’s shown a really solid 50+ FD points floor since the All-Star break and he’s having to play a ton of minutes for this Lakers team that is struggling badly. He’s in the best spot of any stud on the slate as that game has a gaudy total that might not even be high enough considering how bad these two teams’ defenses are. Click the GOAT into your lineups and don’t think twice about it. Even if the Lakers lose, he should score us plenty of fantasy points.
Luka Doncic (9800)
I like paying up for Doncic at shooting guard today in cash games. He’s been terrific since the departure of Dennis Smith Jr. and has triple-double upside any given night. Like LeBron, his rebounding and assist totals give him a solid floor even if his shot isn’t falling and there seems to be no rookie wall for the 19-year old European sensation.
Alex Len (3700)
Welcome to Alex Len chalk night! Somehow FanDuel refuses to price Len up despite the fact that he’s now scored 45 and 47 FanDuel points in back to back games. With John Collins looking doubtful tonight and Omari Spellman out for a month, we should see Len continue to start and play as many minutes as he can handle. At this price, you have to play Len in cash as he is going to be the highest owned player in cash games and projects as the best point per dollar play on the slate.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: GPP Plays
For tournament plays, I’m looking for more than just 5x. I’m looking for 6-7x or more and we really want to chase those players with high ceilings, not just floors. We also want to take some risks on players that we think we can get at lower ownership than the chalkier cash game plays.
Nikola Jokic (11200)
Jokic is such an awesome GPP play tonight. With Alex Len and a few other mid-tier plays soaking up a bunch of ownership, I think we are going to see the Joker under 15% ownership. People are going to want to pay up for Giannis and/or LeBron and forget about the fantasy god that is Nikola Jokic. The Spurs are bad on defense, especially against big men, and Jokic has the potential to break the slate if he stays out of foul trouble as this game projects to be close.
Kelly Olynyk (5600)
For the record, I love Bam tonight, too. But Kelly-O is likely going to be lower owned and I think the fast-paced matchup against the Hawks favors his style of play. If Whiteside does play, then Olynyk’s ownership will evaporate and you can still play him here at a very affordable price and terrific matchup.
Derrick White (6200)
White has been red-hot (you thought I was going to say white-hot, didn’t you?) since returning from injury posting 29, 37, and 36 FD points in his last three games. His minutes have increased to 29 in his last two games and I think he could earn a few more tomorrow as the Spurs are going to need their best players on the floor more often in a tough matchup against a solid Denver team.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Landry Shamet (4600) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4300)
Trying to kill two birds with one stone here and cover both of these Clipper guards. They both had nice games yesterday and the Clippers seems to be committed to playing this small lineup with three guards on the floor at all times. They provide some nice cheap exposure to this high total late-night hammer.
Damyean Dotson (4800) and Alonzo Trier (4200)
As much as I am trying my best to avoid playing the Knicks, there are so many cheap guys who could make value in this matchup with the Kings. Dotson and Trier are two that are trending in the right direction and I don’t mind taking a shot on either of them at these prices.
JaMychal Green (3900)
Jay-Mike continues to do his thing and post 20+ FanDuel points on a regular basis even in only 18-22 minutes of playing time. His price still hasn’t moved and he’s about as safe as they come for under 4k.
Noah Vonleh (3900)
Vonleh has shown some signs of life with 29 and 37 FD points in his last two games. The matchup is excellent against the Kings and the worst case scenario is he totally sucks tonight and we just drop his score.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Position Rankings
Something I started right before the break was my favorite players at each position. Think of this a type of “cheat sheet” if you will. These rankings reflect how I would order players based on a “point per dollar basis” and the likelihood they hit 6x or more value for GPP tournaments.
Point Guard
- Derrick White
- Goran Dragic (if he plays
- Jamal Murray
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center
- Nikola Jokic
- Alex Len
- Willie-Cauley Stein
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
If you’re not familiar with how I wrap up the Breakdown, this is where I give you my thoughts on roster construction and briefly discuss my strategy for how I want to attack the slate.
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I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll see the cash core of LeBron-Doncic-Len in there with the two Heat big men and some other solid mid-tier plays I didn’t get a chance to mention in the article like Joe Ingles (6700) and Goran Dragic (5300). Since Alex Len isn’t a true punt play, I guess Damyean Dotson is likely my drop score player which at 4.8k is probably not optimal but it does offer some protection in case Len totally busts.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. This time of year so much can change in the course of 10-12 hours from when you begin to research a slate to when it actually locks. I rarely end up playing this lineup as there are always pivots that need to be made as the slate unfolds during the day!
PG: Derrick White (6200)
PG: Goran Dragic (5300)
SG: Luka Doncic (9800)
SG: Damyean Dotson (4800)
SF: Joe Ingles (6700)
SF: LeBron James (12400)
PF: Bam Adebayo (5500)
PF: Kelly Olynyk (5600)
C: Alex Len (3700)
Next. NBA DFS Value Plays - FanDuel and DraftKings - Monday, March 4. dark
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck with your contests!