NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday, March 4 – A Desperate King!
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Sunday’s NBA DFS slate saw winning GPP scores push well over 375 on FantasyDraft as five of the slates biggest starts all pushed for 50+ fantasy point night including James Harden and Nikola Vucevic who were the only two plays on the slate that went for 60+. With ample value from the Hawks, including a near 50 burger from the chalkiest player on the slate, Alex Len, it was easy to fit in multiple studs on this 7 game Sunday slate and that is exactly what the winning lineups did.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Monday’s Slate Breakdown:
Heading into Monday’s seven game NBA DFS slate which kicks off at 7:30PM EST, we have a few big name stars in action, some clear injury news to watch and the potential for some pre-lock (and maybe post-lock) wackiness as we head down the stretch in the NBA season.
The first game of the night between the Hawks and Heat actually has some big time news to watch out for as the Hawks were a popular value source on Sunday’s slate and Miami could be without Hassan Whiteside once again. If John Collins is ruled out again, Alex Len ($7.7K) fresh off a 48 fantasy point game is going to be wildly popular and for good reason while Bam Adebayo ($11K) on the other side of this game has been priced up for his starting role so the profit potential is not nearly the same as it is for Len.
The two big-ticket items on this slate are Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.3K) and LeBron James ($20K) who could not find themselves in more different positions.
LeBron and the Lakers now sit 4.5 games out of the playoffs after a soul crushing loss to the Phoenix Suns and with their playoff hopes on life support they step into a rivalry game with the LA Clippers which has the highest total (238) and fastest projected pace of any game on the slate.
LeBron feels fairly priced for this game considering he comes into tonight averaging 61.6 fantasy points per game in the six games since the All-Star Break. LeBron fell one assist shy of a triple-double against the Clippers the last time they met, putting up 57 fantasy points.
In 23 games played since the beginning of December, you know how many times LeBron has gone for 70+ fantasy points? Only twice.
So much for Playoff Mode Activated huh?
It sounds crazy to say and it could completely backfire because it is LeBron, but he feels like a cash game play without the GPP ceiling considering his price.
While the Lakers ship is sinking, the Bucks are cruising right along with the best record in the NBA and continue to add pieces like Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol to their team. After a massive 79 fantasy point game against the Jazz after starting the day as questionable, Giannis is the star that seems worth the price but the fact that there is no line in a game against the Suns – tell me this doesn’t scream Giannis is sitting out.
If we get confirmation that Giannis is in and will play full minutes then he is a great play – however if he is out, it becomes Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton chalk mid-tier night.
Now all that said – if Giannis is a go and John Collins is out for the Hawks – you can fit – Giannis, LeBron and Alex Len and still have over $10K per player for the last five spots on FantasyDraft so despite the argument against using these stars, the pricing is soft enough to do so with the right value.
NBA DFS – Building Our Core:
You had to know this was coming.
If you read Picks and Pivots with any regularity, you know that I love using the Brooklyn Nets in DFS GPP play and here comes the Dallas Mavericks, with our old friend THJ. This is a game I was born to write about, play and then lose all my bankroll.
The Nets right now are a dangerous DFS target – I cannot stress that enough – after three straight miserable energy losses against the Wizards, Hornets and Heat, Brooklyn sits just 2 games away from missing the playoffs entirely. For a team that felt great about their play heading into the break and then got Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie back, Coach Kenny Atkinson needs to right this ship quickly.
With Dinwiddie and LeVert back in the fold it has taken usage away from D’Angelo Russell ($14.5K) who last game saw his usage fall under 25% and with three straight games of limited minutes due to blowouts, the game log watchers are going to move far away from D-Russ. With a healthy Nets rotation, people are simply going to balk at playing Russell in DFS and it has proven itself out as he was 3% and 2% owned in his last two games and after two straight underwhelming games, those numbers feel like his ownership ceiling tonight.
Russell is one of those rare players in DFS who has a path to 20+ FGA on any given night and 30-35% usage when everything is clicking which results in 50-60 point ceiling games. This three game stretch here for Brooklyn is CRITICAL – with games against some of the NBA’s worst teams – the Mavs, Cavaliers and Hawks – and if the Nets are going to make a playoff push it all starts with their All-Star guard who is the perfect GPP dart tonight.
The Nets look like they will be without Treveon Graham tonight which opens up some interesting PF options for the Nets who could push either Rodions Kurucs or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson into the starting lineup. Both of these Nets forwards are stone minimum on FantasyDraft at $6K and against an under-sized Mavericks front court that rolls our Dirk Nowitzki at the four – there is a path for massive profit for either/both of these forwards assuming Graham is ruled out.
You can make the case to live in the mid-tier here with guys like Dinwiddie, LeVert or Jarret Allen but I think pairing the ceiling of Russell with the value of guys like Kurucs/RHJ could be an interesting high upside way to attack a Nets team in desperate need of a win.
On the other side of this game – if you are going to play 2-3 Nets, then you have to like the idea of running it back with Luka Doncic ($16.8K) who has been a 45-55 fantasy point plug and play option seemingly every night, dominating all the usage for this Mavericks team.
The Mavericks offense is basically a two-man show with Luka putting up 14 FGA per game the last three games with Tim Hardaway Jr. ($9.6K) chucking the same, including 9 3’s a night. I know THJ has burned us many times and frankly this season he has hurt us more than he has helped but the price reflects that despite the volume upside he has in this Dallas offense. With guys like Dirk, Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell starting around him – THJ is the clear #2 scoring option on a team that lacks them and there is value in that.
This game has a 224 total, a 5 point spread and both teams see point boosts over their season average. It may not feel like the obvious spot on this slate but the pricing of this game stack works well I think within the context of how this slate sets up.
NBA DFS Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.
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G: Luka Doncic
G: D’Angelo Russell
G: Tim Hardaway Jr.
F/C: LeBron James
F/C: Rodions Kurucs
UTIL: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
UTIL: DeAndre Bembry
Slate Overview: As we head down the stretch in the NBA season, writing up these slates and giving you a meaningful sample build becomes harder and harder to do – what may seem like a core play at 6AM, could seem far from it by 6PM EST as news breaks.
Tonight is the perfect example. If Giannis is ruled in, with no minutes limit, you could make the argument quite easily that he is the best play on the board against the Suns but if he is out – then all aboard the chalk Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton trains.
With that being said, one thing I wanted to do is show you what a roster build can look like with both the studs included tonight. Again, as we head down the stretch, value is going to open up with makes Stars and Scrubs builds even easier to attain and with value in Brooklyn and possibly in Atlanta again – you can fit in both Giannis/LeBron without much effort.
Building that cash game foundation, you can pivot off field by stacking up Dallas/Brooklyn in a game that I expect will likely go a bit over-looked. Frankly the Russell/THJ pairing will likely be less than 5% owned and although it has a bankroll crushing floor, there is a ceiling here in what is a sneaky high scoring game that Vegas expects will stay close.
Do me a favor – keep an eye on the news – and if you are going to roll some THJ/D-Loading pairs tonight, make sure to stop off at the liquor store on your way home from work…you are going to need it.
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