It’s not over ’til it’s over: The case for Ajax

It’s been 22 years since Ajax advanced through a Champions League knockout tie. How can the Dutch champions overcome the odds to beat Real Madrid?

Despite losing 2-1 at home against Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie — a deficit no team have overcome to advance — Ajax have a great opportunity to make history.

Real Madrid aren’t in great form heading into Tuesday’s match, posting one win and three losses since the first leg. Consecutive defeats to Barcelona in the league and Copa del Rey are one thing, but Real also lost at home to Girona, and needed two penalties to win against Levante.

Ajax, on the other hand, have been in terrific form since the 2-1 loss. They took two victories in the league, scoring five goals in each, then beat rivals Feyenoord on the road 3-0 in the semifinals of the FNVB Cup.

But Real and Ajax play in very different leagues, and it would be naive to think the opposition is the same. The only fair assessment of recent play is to look at the first leg. But even in that game, Ajax were the better team.

Ajax pressed high last match, and forced Real into mistakes, winning possession in the attacking third. Just under 50 percent of the game was played in the middle third, 18 percent in the defensive third, and 33 percent in the attack. Ajax were on the front foot despite 50 percent possession, and forced most of the game to be played closer to Real Madrid’s goal.

Ajax completed 188 passes in the final third compared to 100 for Real. Ajax also had 13 shots in the penalty area while Real had five. In the end, Ajax has two expected goals to 1.4 for Real. The Dutch side would have been worthy winners.

Ajax had a goal disallowed by VAR just before Real’s breakthrough, and some fans thought they got unfair treatment when Real’s second goal stood after a VAR review after the first was disallowed. VAR did what it was meant to, and made the right decision in the end, but by the slimmest of margins. Don’t expect Real to get bailed out again.

It was easy to see Ajax made Real uncomfortable. Time on the ball was limited as Ajax pressed high, and forwards were unable to hold up play to let their team get out. If Ajax once again disturb Real’s buildup from the back, they prevent players like Toni Kroos and Luca Modric from picking out devastating passes, and instead force the defenders to break them down, a far preferable situation.

Ajax’s biggest advantage, however, is not having to face Sergio Ramos, who was suspended for yellow card accumulation. The veteran defender was crucial in breaking up attacks, and often had to make last-ditch tackles and interceptions to prevent opportunities. Without Ramos, Real are without their leader, and the Ajax attack that created 19 shots last time can surely create more opportunities. The defense around Ramos appeared weak. While the Real Madrid captain gets flak for perceived dirty behavior, he does an important job. Losing him will hurt Real more than any other players absence would.

Going to the Bernabeu isn’t easy — though Barcelona make it seem so. Ajax likely won’t play as free flowing and high energy as last match at home, but even a fraction of that intensity will put pressure on Real and create opportunities. After failing to convert so many last time, it would be surprising if Ajax weren’t more prolific in this match.  It will come down to Ajax’s ability to exploit the new weakness in Real’s defense, knocking the defending champions out before the semifinals for the first time in eight years.