PGA DraftKings Value Picks: 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Welcome back to another week of PGA DraftKings Value Picks, this time for the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

In a smaller field than usual this week, there will be a much better chance of having all six of your golfers making the cut. That being said, there is much more significance this week (as opposed to others) on high finishes.

Taking long-shots on golfers near the bottom is risky this week when considering where the cut-line will be at. I would say that in order to place in cash games, you will need five of six golfers to make the cut at the very least. Having just four make the weekend is just not going to be good enough.

Bay Hill, home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is a Par 72 featuring three Par 5s measuring over 550 yards. This makes both Par 5 Scoring Average and Par 5 Going for the Green key stats to keep an eye on. Golfers who can take advantage of the Par 5s will have a leg up on the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

There are also five Par 4s that range from 450-475 yards. Birdie or Better from 200+ is another stat that can reflect off of some of these longer holes. Golfers will be left with a lengthy second shot on most of holes making birdies and eagles on them a premium.

With water and bunkers surrounding most greens, SG: Approach the Green is another stat to consider. We have seen players make huge numbers in the past so staying out of trouble on approach is going to be important.

Course history has proven to have significance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. There are many different trends that we can look to, but it is clear that knowing the course trumps all. Each of the past eight winners made the cut the previous year, with six of them finishing inside the top-25.

To be in the winner’s circle at the Arnold Palmer Invitational does take experience, so consider course history when constructing your team First time players can have success here, but you typically see names at the top of the leader-board who know their way around Bay Hill.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top Play: Rory McIlroy ($11,400)

Yup, we’re going with the chalk and clear favorite this week to kick it off. The 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner, Rory McIlroy leads the way in DraftKings pricing this week at $11,400. Rory has been absolutely unconscious this year making 4/4 cuts, with ALL of them resulting in a top-5 finish.

Aside from having a win, you can’t ask for him to come into this week with much better form. McIlroy has made the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational four straight years with a T4, T27, and T11 to go along with last years win.

Rory ranks ninth in Par 5 Going for the Green, and 11th in Birdies or Better from 200+ this season. There have been two back-to-back winners in the past seven years at Bay Hill, so why not make it a third?

Though Rory is my top play this week, this is a very difficult range to dissect. First, it has to be evaluated a bit differently with Tiger Woods withdrawing Monday afternoon. Woods was the second highest priced player on DraftKings at $11,100 and one of just four players above $10k.

The other three being Justin Rose ($10,700), Rickie Fowler ($10,400), and Brooks Koepka ($10,200). Fowler and Koepka are both coming off of a T2 where they fell one shot away from a playoff with Keith Mitchell. I prefer Fowler to Koepka just based off of course history alone.

We did not see Rose at all through the month of February following his win at the Farmers Insurance Open. He pulled out of the WGC Mexico a few weeks back and has only played one event since, which was a missed cut at the Saudi International.

Rose does have a nice course history finishing T13 or better in each of the past three years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 38 year old can be faded as we are not certain where his game will be at following a lengthy break.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Mid-Salary Range Picks

This is the range that we are going to have to nail. Starting your team off with Rory McIlroy, you are left with just over $7,700 for each of your last five spots. Having limited options inside of this range probably only allows you to roster one or two players here.

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700)

I am willing to pay up in this range as well. Bryson DeChambeau is a nice fit all the way around and may not garner that much attention. He had a poor week at the WGC Mexico Championship and this was the last time we saw him as he took last week off.

DeChambeau finished a solo second here last season and was T27 back in 2016 as an armature. He currently ranks third this season in Par 5 Scoring average, and eighth in Par 5 Going for the Green.

Rostering both McIlroy and DeChambeau does leave you a bit tight on money with an average of about $7,200 for your last four golfers, but these are two guys who fit the mold perfectly for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Starting your team from DeChambeau down is also a nice build that provides some salary relief as he is priced $1,700 below McIlroy.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,700)

I think it’s just about time for Tyrrell Hatton to hit the Fantasy Golf radar again. He is still ranked inside the World’s top-35 and is coming off of a T19 at the WGC Mexico Championship. Hatton has a bit of history here at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, making the cut in each of the past two years.

Back in 2016, Hatton finished in a tie for fourth, which is his best finish in the US to date. He ranks seventh on tour in Birdie or Better from 200+. He is fairly priced at $8,700, but I think he has the game to get it dont this week at Bay Hill.

Henrik Stenson ($8,100)

For some reason, we are seeing much less Henrik Stenson than normal this season. His only appearance on tour this year was at the WGC Mexico finishing T54. He has struggled most of the year, but is still 36th in the OWGR.

Stenson has a strong course history playing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational making 9/10 cuts with four top-5’s in his last five tries (4/CUT/T3/2/T5). At just $8,100, I am willing to take my chances on Stenson getting back into form at a course he has had success at in the past.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Value Plays

This is the range that you will sit in if you decide to start with the McIlroy and DeChambeau combination. As I stated above, you can average about $7,200 per roster spot if you go with them two which would lead you directly to this range.

Cameron Champ ($7,600)

Remember this guy? The guy who we were paying anywhere from $8,000-$10,000 for? Over the past month and a half, Cameron Champ has slowly fallen off of Fantasy Golf players’ radar. This is Champ’s debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but should not hold him back from making a splash.

His game suits Bay Hill as he is 11th in Par 5 Going for the Green, 18th in Par 5 Scoring average, and second in driving distance. His power off the tee and ability to go low on Par 5s should keep him right in it this week priced at just $7,600.

Byeong Hun-An ($7,500)

After a real shaky Thursday at the Honda Classic last week, Byeong Hun-An still managed to somehow make the cut. Even though this is a much stronger field, we are getting An at almost $2,000 cheaper than what we paid last week.

An has shown consistency at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the past three years going 3/3. An’s game also sets up well for Bay Hill as he is 17th in Par 5 Going for the Green and 24th in Birdie or Better from 200+. An is a nice cash game play on DraftKings at $7,500.

Other plays from this range: Si Woo Kim ($7,8000), Zach Johnson ($7,700), and Charley Hoffman ($7,000).

Arnold Palmer Invitational Cheap Plays

Now to the bottom of the board. If you plan on starting with the McIlroy and DeChambeau combination, this range is going to have to provide made cuts. Luckily, this smaller field allows us to pay up at the top, now we need to seek value down here.

Eddie Pepperell ($6,600)

Remaining just inside the World’s top-50, Pepperell will be seeking a high finish to maintain his priority on the PGA Tour. This is just like the situation we had last week with Lucas Bjerregaard. We are getting a discount on a World-class golfer because of his recent struggles and irrelevance to the casual PGA Tour fan.

Pepperell is off to a slow start on the course in 2019, yet still has made ¾ cuts worldwide. He is one of the better follows on Twitter and has been in the states since the WGC Mexico working on his game. Pepperell is more suited for a GPP due to his recent form, but is underpriced for a player of his caliber.

Ollie Schniederjans ($6,200)

Why does Ollie always find a way to suck me back in? Though he is very volatile in terms of making the cut at just 3/7 this year, he does have somewhat of a track record here. Schniederjans has made two consecutive cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational good for a T41, and a T34.

Both years he sat right around even par. Priced just $200 above the minimum, Schniederjans is worth the gamble to roster. We have seen him finish high in each of the past two years, so hopefully his strength off the tee can lead him to at least a made cut this weekend at Bay Hill.

Other plays from this range: Joaquin Niemann ($6,900), Sam Horsfield ($6,700), and Carlos Ortiz ($6,400)