DraftKings NBA Picks March 5: Ride Vucevic with Embiid out

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 24: Rajon Rondo #9 of the Los Angeles Lakers calls out a play as he dribbles during a 120-105 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at Staples Center on January 24, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 5: Ride Vucevic with Embiid out

We have six games on tap tonight for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. There are four players priced in five figures, so which stars should we build with? Let’s take a look at who’s more likely to win us some money!

The cash line last night was at 277.75. My first lineup was half a point shy of that mark, and the late game stack failed in the other lineup. Disappointing nights by Rubio and Favors hurt my bottom line.

BuckeyeCity put up 362 DraftKings points to take this down. He built with Gobert and Randle and got the triple double from Rondo and huge games from Powell, Oubre, JRich, and Crowder.

I get asked a lot why I chose one player over another in a certain tier, so I am switching things up a little. Instead of just putting the plays I like from each price tier, I’m going to put in more of my thought process in here instead of just telling you what to do. If you don’t think my logic is sound, then you can make your own choice.

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Russell Westbrook #0 of the Oklahoma City Thunder dribbles the ball up court during a 107-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook has 116.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this year, so he justifies his top price on the slate. The status of George isn’t really going to push me one way or the other here. I like Russ either way.

The question is whether any of the other upper tier options are worth the trouble. Curry was a non-factor against Boston while Kyrie Irving blew up for 60 DraftKings points in that one. However, both teams are in different places now than they were then. The Celtics are a team divided, so I don’t think we can count on a night like that from Kyrie again. It’s best to just ignore this whole tier.

Unless you want to take a shot on Ben Simmons against the Magic. Simmons had just 16.5 DraftKings points in the first game against them, but he has been a beast with Embiid out. Embiid is out again, so Simmons is a solid GPP play. I wouldn’t trust him in cash though.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry has been on another level late, but I don’t really want to run him against CP3 and vice versa. This feels like a game where neither point can dominate. I’m all over Damian Lillard if Conley is out. If Conley is in, I like him against Portland more than Lillard against him.

Darren Collison is a strong play against the Bulls. His numbers have been consistently good since Oladipo went down, and Collison has flashed enough upside for GPP usage, especially when they price him this low. Collison only needs 33 DraftKings points for 6x value. He has hit that in five of the last nine games, eclipsing 5x value in all but one of those.

I find it hard to get excited about Jeff Teague right now. He put up 25 DraftKings points in the first game with the Thunder, but he hasn’t done a lot since his return. He doesn’t have the upside for GPP usage, but Teague is still solid in cash games.

Dark Horses:

Delon Wright is in a huge spot if Conley is out or limited again. However, if he doesn’t start, I don’t think we can trust that he will do enough. He was trending downward until his nice game with Conley out over the weekend.

Cory Joseph’s price is to the point where I’m using him again. Joseph has 86 DraftKings points over the last three games at just $3,800. That’s 9x value!

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Joseph(G); Irving(PG)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 27: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on February 27, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden was a monster against the Celtics. Now he gets the other best team in the East in Toronto. Harden “only” had 49 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Toronto. That was a solid outing, but that was with Paul out and it is still far below value. It’s closer to 4x than 5x. It’s hard to fade Harden, but that looks like the right play tonight. If it comes down to Harden or Westbrook, Westbrook looks like the far better option.

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine laid an egg on Sunday, but he has averaged 38.1 DraftKings points in three games against Indiana this year. For whatever reason, the Bulls have given the Pacers they best they’ve had this year. Expect LaVine at the forefront of that, especially since Dunn has been a non factor against Indiana this year.

If Klay Thompson is able to play, I like this spot against Boston after what Harden just did to the Celtics. Klay isn’t Harden, but his jump shot is just as lethal, and that’s where Boston struggled. If Thompson starts, I’ll have some exposure to him.

Memphis has one of the better guard defenses in the league, yet C.J. McCollum has racked up 70.75 DraftKings points on them in two games. That’s nearly 6x value for his price. I wouldn’t play Lillard here, but C.J. is very tempting.

Dennis Schroder was putting up solid numbers with George in the lineup, and only really had one game apart from his normal production with George out. Schroder seems independent of George to hit value. No one is threatening his role as the premier option on the second team, so he is a safe value play again, though some of the upside is gone if George returns.

Dark Horses:

Eric Gordon’s prolific long range shooting makes him a tempting option every game. The same is true of Terrence Ross. However, both of them can torpedo a lineup if they have an off night like Ross’s 1-12 from the floor against Cleveland. That was his second single digit game of the last four. I love the upside, but it’s really hard to trust either one of them. I guess that’s why they call it a GPP dart.

It sounds like Avery Bradley will play, and he is part of what is making the GPP point totals so high every other game. Bradley has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games. His price has increased $500 in that span. We literally can’t fade Bradley with this kind of production for the price.

Wayne Selden‘s price went up $100, but his production still makes him worth it if you need to go this cheap. Selden has at least 5x value in six straight games. There is very little upside, but he’s not going to torpedo your lineup. We hope.

My pick: Bradley(SG); Bradley(SG)

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – FEBRUARY 17: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors and Team LeBron reacts in the second quarter during the NBA All-Star game as part of the 2019 NBA All-Star Weekend at Spectrum Center on February 17, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

If Paul George plays, I like him against Minnesota. However, digging deeper into this, we have every reason to fade this. George’s price hasn’t dropped much. If he is limited at all, George wont hit value. If the shoulder isn’t 100%, he wont hit value. I tend to think the Thunder have no real reason to rush him back, but I’m still skeptical about this price point. It seems more wise to go with the sure thing in Russ.

Kevin Durant put up 53.25 DraftKings points in the first game with Boston. The bad news is that Durant has only hit that mark twice with Boogie in the picture. You can play the KD vs. Kyrie narrative hoping they show off for each other, but I’m not real confident in it. I think I would rather run Kawhi at Houston considering he put up 50.75 against them in the first meeting.

Honorable Mention:

Otto Porter has been a beast as a Bull, but we have also seen teams that give him problems. Indiana is going to be one of those. There is a steep drop at SF, but that’s no reason to reach for Otto here.

I don’t care what Bojan’s numbers are against Chicago this year. He’s been huge since Oladipo went down. Thad Young is also worth a look unless he draws Markkanen. The Bulls have done a good job on Thad so far, but Indiana is a little beat up in the frontcourt, so Young has had a more expanded role here.

Andrew Wiggins has just owned the Thunder this year. He has 108.5 DraftKings points in just 80 minutes against Oklahoma City over two games. Wiggins isn’t all that consistent, but the fact that he did it twice to the same team bodes well for the third meeting. The best part? Wiggins is only $5,700.

Dark Horses:

Jaylen Brown‘s inconsistency makes it hard to trust him, but he has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. Mining for value against the Warriors isn’t a great idea most of the time, but the Warriors could be really thin on the wings with McKinnie, Iggy, and Klay all questionable.

Despite the success of Cory Joseph over the last several games, Wesley Matthews still has six straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. There is very little upside here, but this is still a solid value.

It was fun while it lasted with Mo Harkless. Now with Turner back, I don’t think that we can trust that the minutes will be there for Harkless. If news comes out that he’s starting, I have no issue putting him in again. Actually, if Turner starts, I love the dart throw with him at minimum price.

My pick: N/A; Bogdanovic(UTIL), Wiggins(SF), Matthews(G)

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – MARCH 03: Lauri Markkanen #24 of the Chicago Bulls dunks over B.J. Johnson #5 of the Atlanta Hawks at the United Center on March 03, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Lauri Markkanen has 85.75 DraftKings points in the two games against the Pacers so far this year. What makes Markkanen worth the effort is the fact that he has topped 50 DraftKings points five times in the last ten games. He’s exploding past value more often than most, and Indiana can’t stop him. They have proven that already.

Honorable Mention:

This isn’t a great matchup for Tobias Harris, but it’s going to be a hell of a lot better if Butler sits in street clothes with Embiid. Harris has 78.75 DraftKings points against the Magic this year, so on second though, just play him anyway. It’s just gravy if Butler sits. I even like running this back with Aaron Gordon. Gordon has dominated Philly for 86.5 DraftKIngs points in the two games so far. Just be aware that Harris may provide more resistance.

Pascal Siakam racked up 43 DraftKings points in the first game against Houston. With the way Siakam is playing right now, I wouldn’t bet against him doing it again.

Draymond Green had 37.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Boston. With the Warriors a little thin on the bench, Green could see a little more production tonight. At any rate, Green is really cheap for what he could do and has done to Boston. Whenver Draymond is priced like this, I take notice.

Jonathan Isaac is slowing down. Even though he has a solid matchup tonight, I would rather use Jerami Grant against Minnesota. Despite the presence of Markieff, Grant keeps putting up strong numbers that will be even better when he starts hitting his shots again.

Dark Horses:

If Kenneth Faried is able to play here with no limitations, I love him against the Raptors. Faried put up 44 DraftKings points on them the first time around. This could be another huge return if Faried is back to 100%.

We have seen the trend going this way for a while now. Taj Gibson is playing the same amount of minutes as Dario Saric, and has been far more productive over the last couple of games. My instinct is to just avoid this whole situation. If you want to play one though, make it Taj.

Jonah Bolden has been a good value play with Embiid out, but he has shown repeatedly that he isn’t going to put up any huge numbers. The presence of Mike Scott only solidifies that. Still, I’ll take a sure 6x value for under $4k.

My pick: Gordon(SF), Bolden(PF), Green(F), Grant(UTIL); Markkanen(PF), Bolden(F)

basketball parlay: PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JANUARY 22: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball during the first half of the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on January 22, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns continues to put up massive numbers, but I’m not sure it happens here. The Thunder have held him to just 65.75 DraftKings points in 51 minutes due to foul trouble. Steven Adams, for all of his offensive struggles, continues to be a solid defender. If you’re expecting 60 from Towns, you aren’t going to get it. You’d be lucky to come out of this with 5x.

Nikola Vucevic has 121.75 DraftKings points in two games against Philly, and that was with a healthy Joel Embiid. Vucevic is my favorite play of the night, and it’s not all that close when you take the price into consideration. 60 seems like the floor for Vucevic with Embiid out.